Sean Allen
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Sean Allen
Special to ESPN.comSean Allen is a contributing writer for fantasy hockey and betting at ESPN. He was the 2008 and 2009 FSWA Hockey Writer of the Year.
Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash
Special to ESPN.comVictoria Matiash is a contributing writer for fantasy hockey and betting at ESPN. Victoria has been a part of the fantasy team since 2010.May 7, 2025, 10:04 AM ET
The NHL will drop the puck on the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs on Monday night, when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the defending champion Florida Panthers. The Maple Leafs are seeking to break the longest championship drought in the NHL, while the Panthers dispatched their in-state rival Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. A team from Florida has made the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past five seasons.
Elsewhere in the East, the Carolina Hurricanes head north to take on the Metropolitan Division-winning Washington Capitals. That series will start Tuesday.
Also on Tuesday night, the Edmonton Oilers will face the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference semifinals.
The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets both advanced in dramatic fashion in Game 7s and will open their semifinals series on Wednesday.
With the matchups set, Sean Allen (East) and Victoria Matiash (West) provide their best picks in each series, along with picks for the Conn Smythe Trophy (playoffs MVP).
All times ET. Odds accurate as of time of publication. For latest odds and markets, go to ESPN BET.
Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets
Game 1: Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg; Wednesday, 9:30 p.m.
Game 1 Puck line: Stars -1.5 (+210), Jets +1.5 (-300)
Series line: Stars (-175), Jets (+150)
Series length: Four games (+700), five games (+270), six games (+195), seven games (+180)
Series winner Winnipeg Jets (+150). Following Sunday’s excessively dramatic, come-from-behind, double OT win against the Blues, the Jets face a fresh dawn with less pressure. No matter what, The Presidents Trophy winners won’t have to endure months upon months of hearing about how they squandered away an unmatched season by getting the boot in the first round. No one on that team is going to feel the lift of that weight more than the Vezina/Hart candidate in the crease.
Sure, Connor Hellebuyck was awful in St. Louis, earning the hook in all three road games. He was also lousy to start Game 7 back home, appearing poised to pave the way for an early exit. Then the Jets No. 1 appreciably improved as the contest wore on, to the point of looking like the best version of himself in the extra frames. Anyone who understands the mental element to the game, especially at the goaltending position, will appreciate the cleansing aspect of righting the ship when it comes down to the wire. Point is, we could now see a version of Hellebuyck more akin to what we’ve been accustomed to all season.
Sticking with the regular campaign, Winnipeg’s No. 1 is 3-1 versus Dallas with a .965 SV% and 1.01 GAA. Impressive stuff. No doubt, the Jets defense will have their hands full with an inspired Mikko Rantanen, plus a returning Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson, but they’ve managed before. The most pressing concern on Scott Arniel’s side is the health of Mark Scheifele and Josh Morrissey. However, before being ruled out for Game 7, Scheifele was considered a “maybe”, which holds promise following days of extra rest.
Another option for those siding with the underdog in this set: Jets to win Game 1 & win the series (+230). The opener, of course, is taking place at the Canada Life Centre, where the home side has yet to lose.
Best bets: Kyle Connor to record 2-plus shots on goal in each game (+180). The Jets sniper averaged 3.14 shots/game, while the Stars surrendered 34.4 shots/contest — the most of any team advancing to round two — in their respective opening sets. So, the arithmetic shines a positive light on this play.
Plus, anyone who believes Jake Oettinger is good for a minimum of one blowup game in this series might also consider siding with Kyle Connor to score 4-plus goals in series (+170). The Stars netminder was far from rock-solid in three contests versus the Avalanche in round one, allowing 12 goals in fewer than 160 minutes of play. If Oettinger gets lit up, there’s an excellent chance Winnipeg’s top-scorer will play a part in that onslaught.
If the Stars win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Mikko Rantanen (+900). The Stars aren’t playing anymore this spring if not for an exceptional showing from the former Avalanche skater. After a sleepier start, Rantanen scored five goals and six assists in the three final games against his old buds, including a nail-driving hat trick in Game 7.
If the Jets win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Connor Hellebuyck (+2500). Same refrain as from before the postseason started: If the best goalie in the NHL is near his best, the Jets hold a legit shot at driving to the end. If not, they won’t get past the Stars, never mind Vegas or Edmonton.
Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals
Game 1: Capital One Arena, Washington; Tuesday, 7 p.m.
Game 1 puck Line: Hurricanes -1.5 (+190), Capitals +1.5 (-265)
Series winner: Hurricanes (-175), Capitals (+150)
Series length: Four games (+600), five games (+260), six games (+195), seven games (+200)
Best bets: Like the Panthers-Leafs series, the sportsbooks have the lower seed favored to take the series in this matchup, which makes the Game 1/series winner combos more interesting. I’d even lean the same way as the other series by nature, taking the Capitals to win Game 1 and lose the series (+320) as a backdoor way to improve the odds of taking the Hurricanes to win.
The Caps and Canes split four games in the regular season, with the Hurricanes getting the slight edge for pushing one of their loses to a shootout. Alex Ovechkin played in three of the contests, scoring two goals.
On the other side, Seth Jarvis and Jackson Blake each potted three goals against the Capitals in the regular season. Dmitry Orlov also stands out for generating pucks toward the net against his former team, firing 10 shots on goal, eight missed shots and 10 shot attempts blocked across four games.
The difference-makers for the Capitals have been found on the blue line and on the top line. Jakob Chychrun and John Carlson tilt the ice when they are on together, showing a plus-seven and plus-six goal differential, respectively, at even strength. Meanwhile, Anthony Beauvillier, after scoring just five points across 18 games with Washington after the trade deadline in the regular season, has been a point-per-game player (player to score two-plus goals in series at +275) on the ice with Ovechkin and Dylan Strome.
For the Hurricanes, Andrei Svechnikov — most goals in the series (+1200) — pushed his way up the depth chart to land on the top line by Game 4 of the series with the Devils. He now shares the goals lead with Mikko Rantanen among players still left in the postseason, with five tallies. In net, Frederik Andersen is expected back after being knocked out for the final game and a half against New Jersey.
If the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Sebastian Aho (14-1) is getting better as the playoffs get deeper, scoring equal or more points in each subsequent game against the Devils. The move to add Svechnikov to his wing only makes this top line more powerful, and his proficiency for game-winning goals continues, with an overtime game-winner in the first series.
If the Capitals win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Alex Ovechkin’s odds didn’t improve much between rounds, moving to 20-1 from 25-1 before Round 1, but that’s likely more to do with how likely the sportsbooks think the Capitals are to win the Cup. Ovi scored four goals to lead Washington, including an overtime winner. If the Caps hoist the Cup, Ovechkin likely hoists the MVP.
Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights
Game 1: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada; Tuesday, 9:30 p.m.
Game 1 puck line: Golden Knights -1.5 (+175), Oilers +1.5 (-225)
Series winner: Oilers (-110), Golden Knights (-110)
Series length: Four games (+700), five games (+270), six games (+195), seven games (+180)
While Calvin Pickard played fine enough in replacing Stuart Skinner during round one, netminder Adin Hill grew perceivably stronger as Vegas’ set with the Minnesota Wild wore on, floating a .918 SV% in his final three contests. Outside of two special players — maybe three, considering how Evan Bouchard pitched in against L.A. — the Knights appear to hold the advantage over Edmonton in all other facets. If Jack Eichel and Co. can somewhat contain Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — a big request, no question — their superior team defense, goaltending and scoring depth should suffice in pushing Vegas through in six.
Best bets: Eichel series total goals over 2.5 (+150). Sleepier to start against Minnesota, the Knights’ most productive performer eventually woke up, contributing a goal and four assists on 14 shots in the final three contests. Projected to log upwards of 20 minutes on the Knights’ most dynamic line with Mark Stone and William Karlsson, Eichel appears in comfortable position to build on that total against a lesser defensive corps — still without Mattias Ekholm — and weaker goaltending.
For shorter odds, Eichel series total points over 6.5 (-125) is even more attractive, especially if the series lasts at least six games. Eighth in NHL scoring this regular season, the club’s top center banged out 1.22 points per contest. He also collected nine against the Oilers when they met up in the postseason two years ago.
Looking at shots, how about Evan Bouchard to record 2+ shots on goal in each game (+320)? Averaging 3.67 shots per game, Bouchard failed to register a minimum of a pair only once through six contests with the Kings. As mentioned, a standout performer in the opening round — and a big reason the Oilers are still playing — the blue-liner is bound to continue peppering the net often enough. Of course, checking off this box every single game is a bit of an ask, but that’s why the number is so appealing.
If the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Connor McDavid (+800). That McDavid’s odds dropped from +1600 since the launch of the first round speaks volumes. Never mind that he’s leading the league with 1.83 points per game or that he’s the current favorite for the award. How do you wager against the guy who won the honor when his team lost in last year’s Final?
If the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Mark Stone (+3000). For value, I’m sticking with the heart and soul of this Golden Knights squad. One of the game’s most effective two-way forwards, Stone is expected to bring his best against Edmonton’s two standout superstars. If the Knights manage to hurdle the Oilers, then either the Stars or Jets, and eventually beat whoever emerges from the East, it will be because of a superlative showing from one of the game’s most well-rounded skaters.
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
Game 1: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario; Monday, 8 p.m.
Game 1 puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-265), Panthers -1.5 (+190)
Series winner: Maple Leafs (+150), Panthers (-175)
Series length: Four games (+600), five games (+270), six games (+200), seven games (+180)
Best bets: The Maple Leafs had some demons to exorcise in Round 1, and while it was touch and go for a few moments, they got there in the end. The Panthers won the season series 3-1, but this series should be about as good as we’ve come to expect … and the difference is going to come in the margins.
While both teams have two scoring lines that can match up well, it might be the rest of the forward group that pushes the momentum. Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen combined to form a third line that the Tampa Bay Lightning couldn’t find an answer for in the first round. Are the Maple Leafs’ bottom six up to the task?
Editor’s Picks
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With the favored team by the oddsmakers actually being the road team for Game 1, there’s an opportunity to let the Leafs have their home-game advantage, but take the Panthers in the long run with enhanced odds. The Maple Leafs to win Game 1 and lose the series checks in at +300 as opposed to the -175 odds for just taking the Panthers to win the series. And if that’s the belief, it’s arguably worth taking on a series spread take, as Panthers -1.5 series spread pushes the payout to +110 so long as they take care of business in six games or fewer.
That said, I’ve got to stick to my guns in taking the Leafs to go all the way this season, so I’m leaning the other way with the Maple Leafs to win Game 1 and win the series (+230). It feels like this Leafs team has a strong tailwind headed into Round 2.
On the player front, Carter Verhaeghe has been a “Leafs killer” going back to when the Cats dispatched the Leafs in the 2023 playoffs (three goals in five games). In the regular-season series, Verhaeghe posted two goals and four points in four games, and also managed an astronomical 25 total shot attempts (seven shots on goal, five missed shots and 13 shot attempts blocked). He has pretty long odds in a lot of the player categories — most goals in series (+1000), most shots on goal in series (+1000) and score a hat trick in any game (+1100) — that dovetail with his history against Toronto.
If the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Auston Matthews has the best odds at 18-1, with Mitch Marner moving from 50-1 before the first round to 25-1 heading into Round 2, but William Nylander (60-1) leads the team in goals and points so far. All that aside, it’s Anthony Stolarz (20-1) who has led this Leafs team into Round 2 with timely goaltending.
If the Panthers win the Stanley Cup, who wins the Conn Smythe? Four of the 20 best bets for Conn Smythe are Panthers, just like prior to Round 1. But I’d bypass Sergei Bobrovsky (16-1), Aleksander Barkov (18-1) and Matthew Tkachuk (18-1) to look at No. 4 on the list. Sam Reinhart (25-1) leads the team in points and leads the forwards in ice time per game by a full two and a half minutes.
