Caroline Holy
BBC Diplomatic Correspondent
Reuters
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected the idea of negotiations with the US over the nuclear program
It’s almost a decade since the world powers sealed off historic deals to limit Iran’s nuclear programmes, and this is a crunch moment for Iran and the international community.
This country is now closer than ever, with the ability to build nuclear bombs.
And the agreement designed to prevent Iran’s nuclear weapons development will expire later this year.
“It’s the real folk of the Lord’s moment,” says Dr. Sanam Vakil, of Chatham House, a London-based think tank. “Without meaningful and successful diplomacy, we could have seen Iranian weapons or a military strike against the Islamic Republic.”
The contract was hard-workingly negotiated under President Barack Obama for almost two years, imposing restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for relief from sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy.
However, after Donald Trump escaped from the agreement during his first presidency in 2018 and reinstated US sanctions, Iran gradually stopped following its commitment.
Accelerated uranium enrichment – not only used to manufacture reactor fuel, but also nuclear bombs have potentially brought them closer to weapons.
Experts say it takes less than a week to enrich enough material to create one nuclear weapon.
Thus, a surge in emergency diplomatic activities by the US and five other political parties, including the UK, China, France, Germany and Russia.
EPA
Donald Trump said his letter to Iran proposed consultations on a deal that would prevent the acquisition of nuclear weapons and avoid possible military actions.
At the UN Security Council closure meeting, on Wednesday, we discussed Iran’s nuclear program.
And China is holding talks with Iran and Russia on Friday in search of a “diplomatic” resolution.
“In the current situation, I believe that all parties should remain calm and restrained in order to avoid escalating the Iranian nuclear situation or even walking towards conflict and conflict,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maine said this week.
A letter from President Trump was delivered in Tehran on Wednesday by a senior UAE diplomat.
The content has not been published.
But President Trump issued the Ultimate, which aired to Iran last week after imposing new sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign.
“I wrote to them, ‘If we have to go militarily, it’s going to be awful, so I hope you negotiate,” he said.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to reject the idea of a meeting with “bullying.”
Also, publicly, in exchange for the end of the sanctions, President Masuud Pezeschkian, who previously supported the revival of nuclear deals.
But the country is sending mixed messages.
“There are camps in the country that support negotiations,” says Dr. Vakir. “And there are camps where weaponization is considered the best opportunity for Iran to manage its security.”
There is a huge lack of trust in the Trump administration.
“They have seen his volatile, very bullying approach. [Ukraine’s President Volodymyr] Zelensky. And his strange suggestions about Gaza and they don’t want to be put in that position,” Dr. Vakir added.
Iran hates the humiliation of having a gun on his head. But it is currently vulnerable – it has been militarily weakened by Israeli air strikes last year, and is believed to have destroyed much of the air defense that protects the nuclear program.
Israel has long wanted to remove the facility.
Iranian authorities continue to argue that the country’s nuclear program is a peaceful purpose.
However, concerns from the international community are becoming increasingly serious.
Reuters
IAEA Chihulafaer Grossi visited two nuclear sites while traveling to Iran last November
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – tasked with monitoring the nuclear deal for Mullian nuclear — says he has seen Iran strengthen its nuclear capabilities at various facilities around the country over the past few years.
According to IAEA Director Rafael Grossi, uranium stocks concentrate up to 60% purity.
“The significant increase in the production and accumulation of highly reinforced uranium by Iran, the only nuclear-weapon state that produces such nuclear material is a serious concern,” the IAEA said in its latest report.
However, the nuclear watchdog is not in a position to accurately verify what Iran is doing as authorities have removed IAEA surveillance equipment.
Grossi says diplomatic engagement with Iran – through possible channels – is now urgent and “essential.”
On October 18th, parties to the 2015 nuclear deal will lose their ability to impose so-called “snapback” state sanctions on Iran for violating its terms.
Therefore, the UK, France and Germany are now exercising the threat of snapback sanctions in the hopes of putting pressure on them.
“It is clear that Iran is taking diplomatic measures to prevent nuclear weapons, including the use of snapbacks where necessary,” UK Deputy UN Ambassador James Kariuki said on Wednesday.
Iran and the world have high interests.
“If Tehran decides to build a bomb, it can enrich enough uranium for multiple warheads within a few weeks,” according to Dr. Alexander Bolfras, who focuses on preventing nuclear proliferation at another London-based think tank, International Institute of Strategic Studies.
However, he told the BBC that designing and assembling weapons for deliverables takes several months to more than a year.
“Iran is closer to nuclear weapons than ever,” he says. “But it’s not yet clear whether they have decided to develop nuclear weapons or are looking for leverage for negotiations.”
