As in January, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin emphasized the idea of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine.
But after a month when President Trump changed American foreign policy into his mind and Russian troops progressed in key battles, the Kremlin looks eager to entertain the 30-day ceasefire proposal held by Ukraine and the United States on Tuesday.
Putin’s spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov told reporters Wednesday that the Kremlin was “carefully studying” the results of Tuesday’s talks between the US and Ukraine.
He said he hoped the US would inform “details of the negotiations that took place and details of the understandings reached” in the coming days. He raised another possibility of a call between Putin and Trump, indicating that the Kremlin viewed the proposal for a ceasefire as part of broader diplomacy.
Late Wednesday, Putin asked him to show that he is dominating the event by holding a televised meeting with his top military officials accused of wearing military fatigue and pushing Ukraine from Russia’s Kursk region. He instructed the troops to defeat Ukraine in the region “in the shortest possible time.” This is a move to deny Ukraine the important leverage of negotiations with Russia if successful.
Putin has seen a dizzying reversal at his geopolitical fate last month as Trump reorganized America’s foreign policy in Russia’s favour, and American foreign policy that was hostile to Ukrainian President Volodimia Zelensky in the White House.
But the emergence of a joint ceasefire proposal from the US and Ukraine complicates things for Putin. It deepens tensions with his desire for a widespread victory in Ukraine and his close ties with Trump.
Trump says he wants to end the war as soon as possible, but Putin shows that Ukraine will not join NATO and will not stop the fight until the alliance extracts major concessions from the West and Kiev, including reducing its presence in Central and Eastern Europe.
Photo available to the Ukrainian President’s office at a Tuesday meeting with Ukrainian and American officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Credit…Ukrainian President Press Service via Agence France-Presse – Getty Images
When he congratulated Trump on the inauguration on January 20th, Putin made clear that the goal of Ukraine’s discussions was “not a short ceasefire, not a kind of rest.” Russia sought “long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all those living in the region,” he said.
Analysts say Putin’s opposition to a temporary ceasefire comes from the simple calculation that Moscow will only abandon leverage by stopping the battle, not winning concessions, as Russian forces have acquired it on the battlefield.
But the call between Putin and Trump on February 12, and the subsequent alliance with Russia at the UN and elsewhere in the White House, could have influenced Putin’s calculus.
It sets the delicate balance act of the Kremlin.
Moscow political analyst Ilya Grashchenkov said the Kremlin could be tempted to embrace an armistice “tactically undesirable but strategically preferred.”
The Russians were not present at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, but the Trump administration continues to be involved with the Kremlin. CIA director John Ratcliffe spoke with Russian counterpart Sergei Narishkin on Tuesday, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency said on Wednesday.
Trump envoy Steve Witkov, who met with Putin for several hours last month, is set to return to Russia in the coming days, according to two people who requested anonymity to discuss the internal plans. Trump on Tuesday said he thought he would talk to Putin this week, and he told White House reporters on Wednesday that his negotiators were on the way.
“People are going to Russia now, as we speak,” Trump said during a meeting with the Irish prime minister. “And hopefully we can get a ceasefire from Russia.”
Amid signs of Moscow’s continued charm attacks directed at Trump camps, the Russian Foreign Ministry released a 90-minute interview on Wednesday.
English-speaking Mr. Lavrov praised the Trump administration for overturning the Democrats’ “deviation from Christian values,” saying Russia is ready for the “normal relationship” that the US is offering.
“It certainly isn’t impossible for Russians to accept this,” said Samuel Charap, Russian analyst at RAND Corporation, of the 30-day offer. “Not because they want an unconditional temporary ceasefire, but because they are now betting on their relationship with Washington.”
Putin’s calculations could be affected by Russian advances in ousting Ukrainian troops from Kursk, the Russian border area that Ukrainian forces occupied hundreds of square miles of territory in a surprising invasion last August.
Zelensky said he plans to use the land as a negotiation tip in future consultations, but the Kremlin signaled that Ukraine refuses to negotiate as long as it holds territory.
With the Kursk region almost back in Russia’s hands, Putin is no longer at risk of losing his face by agreeing to a ceasefire that controls the regions of Russia’s territory, said Sergei Markov, a political analyst with the Moscow pro-Kremlin.
Markov said the further incentive to agree was to ensure that Russia “doesn’t look like a war mania” in the eyes of non-Western countries that imposed sanctions on Moscow. However, he said he hopes Putin will insist on prerequisites, including halting weapons supplies to Ukraine during the ceasefire.
“Russia would probably say ‘Yes, but -”,” Markov said in a phone interview.
On Wednesday, the popular Russian war blogger showed little enthusiasm for the ceasefire. Some of them expressed concern that the armistice could ultimately lead to a broader deal with the US.
One blogger who went by the name of Alex Parker returning, claimed in a post Wednesday that the peace deal would allow Ukraine to “get off easily and prepare for the next round.”
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed the report.
