March 20, 2025, 09:15 am at
South Carolina is undefeated to the Women’s NCAA Tournament, with each of the past two years entering as a heavy favorite. However, all the top 16 seed teams have at least two losses this season. In other words, I feel that the fight for the national championship is more widespread and open.
That said, teams seeded below No. 3 have never won an NCAA Women’s College basketball title. The three have been the third seed, most recently at LSU in 2023.
Even in the home courts of the top 16 species, early round confusion has become more common. This happened three times last year, with No. 5 seed Colorado, Baylor and No. 7 Duke making their way to the Sweet 16.
Editor’s Pick
2 Related
No this year. How can one seed be stacked? South Carolina has tried repeatedly, but Texas (2004) and USC (1986) have long been seeking their first Final Four, with UCLA seeking their first Final Four in their NCAA days.
Which team is standing last when the nets were cut down on April 6th at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida?
Despite being the second seed behind the Bruins, South Carolina is the most popular pick to win the 2025 title out of nearly 20 women’s college basketball analysts, writers and commentators voted on ESPN. Nine out of the 22 voters chose Gamecocks to win everything. UConn, the No. 2 seed seeking her first championship since her 2016 Breanna Stewart junior year, voted second in six, earning three votes at USC and UCLA.
ESPN sees the fields and what you’ll see in the early rounds and beyond.
Jump: Expert Picks | Title Game Matchup
What are the potential defects in 1 seed?
Alexa Philippou: UCLA is in relatively unknown territory. Coach Cori Close moved forward that round only once in 2018. With two wins at UCLA, USC was able to slow the Bruins by making Lauren Betts’ Life Hell (most teams don’t have the size and physicality that are not particularly the case with the Spokane 1). But if that happens, it becomes even more important for other players to step around her. Notably, the team shot 33-7 with three pointers in these losses to USC. Compare that to how the Bruins attempted 10 of their 21 three points in their blow-off victory in South Carolina in November.
WNBA Women’s Tournament Challenge Group
Play #1 Women’s Bracket Game, join our group and compete with fellow WNBA fans! Free to play: Women’s Tournament Challenge
Michael Vaupel: Texas’ offense becomes more concerning the deeper the Longhorns in the tournament. Texas was the top defensive team in the SEC, holding their opponents at 55.9 points and sixth in offensive scores (78.9 ppg). However, the Longhorn is just 3.2 3-pointer per game, shooting 29.6% of the arc. Go to Sweet 16 and face Ohio State if seeds are retained (6.5 3 pointers per game, 34.2%). After that, TCU (9.6 3, 37.6%) could move on to the next in the regional final. So there will be a lot of pressure on Texas’ defense to make it difficult for teams to hit from outside.
For South Carolina, rebounds can be a concern. Gamecocks averages 42.5 rpg, the lowest it has now since its last four runs began in 2021. Meanwhile, Gamecocks’ best rebound season was 2022-23, finishing second in Division I at 49.5 rpg. The Gamecocks were outbounded with each loss this season. Up to 7 against UCLA, 6 against Texas, and 16 against UConn. In tight games, rebounds can make all the difference.
Charlie Cream: USC may be too dependent on Juju Watkins. There is no objection to Kiki Iriafen’s outstanding season. By the time it arrived in late February, the highly regarded freshman class led by Kennedysmith and Avery Howell was even more reliable. But when it was Watkins and Bust, there was a game. It can also work, like the Trojans’ first victory over UCLA this season, when Watkins scored 38 points. The losses to the Iowa and the Bruins in the Big Ten Championship Game showed what happens when she is struggling and doesn’t help. Once the region arrives, USC may not be able to win the championship if Watkins isn’t stunning in these last four games.
South Carolina closed UConn as a favorite among voters. What is the key to Gamecocks repeating?
Philippou: It feels like the South Carolina repetition will likely fall into the hands of the dominant tournaments from Joyce Edwards, Milasia Fullywily or both players. Dawn Staley has many options she can put on the floor – it often feels like those spares that can change the complexity of the game, but the Gamecock leads the country with 41.5 bench points per game. It’s also not shocking to see Tessa Johnson’s big game, famously exhibited in the 2024 National Title Game, the team’s best three-point shooter.
Voepel: It’s important that Gamecocks defend at the highest level – they will take their opponents to 57.8 PPG and get the version of junior forward Chloe Kitts, who won SEC Tournament MVP honors. She averaged 16.7 points and 7.7 rebounds in these three games.
play
1:13
Paige Bueckers are excited to be healthy heading into the NCAA Tournament
Paige Bueckers share their expectations for the final NCAA tournament run with UConn before moving on to the WNBA.
This year, has UConn finally won its first title since 2016?
Voepel: The Husky have enough teams and enough motivation to do that. But the road is tough. They may have to beat three No. 1 seeds to win the championship. It makes it a very difficult task, even if you achieve a program like UConn.
Top stories of this week
You can access thousands of premium articles a year exclusively from top writers.
• Top 50 NCAA Tournament NBA Leads »
•Who is the MLB ace in the new location? »
• Rankings of remaining NFL free agents»
Other ESPN+ Content»
Philippou: UConn won my pick, but as Voepel laid out, it’s not an easy defeat. The Husky isn’t perfect – the question remains about the depth and impact of the post beyond Sarah Strong, but Page Booker, Aji Hood and Strong are undoubtedly the best trio in the country. That, coupled with Genoauriemma’s ability to peak his team in March, and the urgency to beat Beauker in his final year in the program, could be a dangerous recipe for opposing teams. There have been no more impressive wins this season than when the Husky defeated South Carolina with a 29. They can’t shoot each tournament game, but they still have more ways to win than they’ve been to in the last four.
Cream: The ingredients are there: experience, depth, aggressive variety, and, finally, health. And every year, the Bueckers were in the courtroom of the NCAA Tournament, which led the Husky to the Final Four. With teams that are offensively talented – top of the nation in terms of field goal percentage and points per play – taking the next step is on the card. But my pick for the title is South Carolina, with the Gamecocks slightly beating UConn in the finals. These two meetings in February showed exactly what these husky could achieve. That version of UConn wins the program’s 12th title.
Outside of the top eight teams, who is the third or lowest team outside of the teams that could reach the final four?
Voepel: LSU, the No. 3 seed of Spokane 1, is flying under the radar, especially for a team that won the NCAA title just two years ago. The Tigers were undefeated in non-conference plays. Until late February, their only loss was the number one seed in South Carolina and Texas. Afterwards, an overtime loss in Alabama began skids on February 27th, and entered the NCAA Tournament, where he lost three of his last four games. Guard Frauje Johnson (Sinn Inflammation) has not played since that Alabama loss, but is expected back to the tournament.
If healthy, LSU is a dangerous team as a threat to big scores for Johnson, Anesa Morrow and Mikaira Williams. If seeds are retained, LSU could face NC State in the regional semi-finals. The Tigers defeated the Wolfpack on November 27th. And LSU could face UCLA in the Elite 8. The Tigers beat the Bruins in Sweet 16 last year.
Philippou: I chose Notre Dame and proceeded to Tampa using the bracket. If the Irish version that we saw at the end of February and early March appears, the choice would look stupid. But if the version that beats USC, Texas and UConn comes back, it’s a team that can win the national championship. We previously addressed an issue that Notre Dame dealt with at both ends of the floor. One thing that the Irish cannot completely correct is the lack of a dominant postpresence. This can be a problem when playing against Texas, TCU and others, but it may be enough to make up for it when Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron play like the best backcourt trio in the country.
Cream: Notre Dame was also one of my last four picks, but let’s look at Tennessee beyond Ireland and LSU. This Lady Vols team is unique. With first-year coach Kim Caldwell installing a system that leaps towards full court pressure, mass replacements and a massive three-point shooting, Tennessee has a style that makes preparations difficult for his opponents, especially in the second round and regional finals, when there’s only one day between games. Lady Vols can also shoot themselves out of the game, so they are high-risk, high-reward proposals. But it would be fun to watch Lady Vols run hot.
Which game do you look forward to most in the first four days?
Voepel: Certainly, the 8-9 game should be approaching. But of the 8-9, Utah Indiana could be very good at Birmingham 2. Both teams have sharp shooters. UTES junior guard Gianna Kneepkens made a 3-pointer for the 90 this season and shot 45% from behind the arc. Hoosiers junior guard Yarden Garzon made 85 trays while shooting 41.5%.
Stay at Birmingham 2 among double digit seeds that can potentially rise. But they won that league tournament and are now facing third seeded North Carolina. No 14 or 15 seeds ever won an NCAA tournament game until 1994.
Philippou: The second round can feature 7-seeded Vanderbilt vs. 2-seeded Duke and 6-seeded Michigan vs. 3-seeded Notre Dame. Will Commodores freshman Phenom Mikayla Blakes and crime partner Khamil Pierre transcend Duke’s hard nose defense to win a major upset on Vanderbilt’s first Sweet 16 since 2009? The Michigan freshmen discovered by Silla Sword and Olivia Olson supported the program this year, with the Wolverines nearly defeating the Gamecocks at the beginning of the season. Can they have Notre Dame struggle in South Bend?
Cream: No. 6 The 11th Seed Murray State against Iowa is intriguing. The racers are the country’s top scoring team, and Iowa can also score points. The pace of this game can be enraged. Caitlyn Young of Murray State has scored over 3,000 points in her career. Her individual matchups with Hannah Stuelke could become another game in the game. If the racer can pull upset, then Oklahoma is likely waiting, and another shootout could tap.
2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament Final Four and National Championship Picks
The predicted national championship game matchup
Andrea Adelson: UConn, South Carolina
Jay Alter: UConn, South Carolina
Kendra Andrews: South Carolina around USC
Christa Blank: UCLA in Texas
Mike Kusens: UConn, South Carolina
Charlie Cream: UConn, South Carolina
Wes Durham: South Carolina on UCLA
Kelly Gramlich: Notre Dame at UCLA
Angel Gray: UCLA, South Carolina
Tiffany Green: UConn, South Carolina
Jenn Hildreth: USC Tover Texas
Chuckie Kempf: USC Over Notre Dame
Joe Marfa: UConn at Notre Dame
Anne O’Neill: LSU in South Carolina
Kevin Pelton: UConn, South Carolina
Alexa Filippou: UConn in South Carolina
Roy Philpott: UConn, South Carolina
Kelsey Riggs Cuff: USC on South Carolina
Angela Taylor: UCLA, South Carolina
Christy Thomaskutty: Beyond the UConn in South Carolina
Michael Vaupel: South Carolina around UCLA
Helen Williams: South Carolina around USC
