Mnangagwa, beyond his second term, urges Vice President Chiwenga to threaten a “uprising” on March 31st.
Tensions have risen in Zimbabwe over President Emerson Mnangagwa’s clear intention to remain in power after the second term ended in 2028. Zimbabwe’s constitution expressly prohibits it on two or more terms, but there is suspicion that Mnangagwa intends to somehow circumvent that clause.
This encourages criticism from the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party, not only political opposition and civil society. Vice President Constantino Chiwenga in particular opposes the move. He was waiting for Mnangagwa to pass the baton that he believed had promised him when he drove former President Robert Mugabe with a military takeover in November 2017.
Among the chorus of critics that Mnangagwa asks to go is a powerful faction of war veterans, a key constituency of Zanu-PF facilities that support Chuwenga. Leading by the blessed “bomb” Runes Geza, the faction plans a “uprising” against him on March 31st. Geza was a member of the Congress and a member of the Central Committee of ZANU-PF until he was exiled to incite the factionalism.
Geza is hidden and the government is cracking down on those who communicate Geza’s appeal. The blessed Mhlanga of Alpha Media Holdings (AMH) journalist was arrested after broadcasting an interview with Geza on AMH’s Heart and Seoul TV. He was denied bail twice. Others are hidden.
This clampdown has sparked widespread criticism beyond Zimbabwe. Idris Ali Nassa, a senior African clock researcher, said, “We have called for the immediate release and withdrawal of the charges against Murangga, which demonstrates the right to freedom of expression and the media being subject to serious threats in Zimbabwe.
The instigation dates back to August 2024, when the National Congress of Zanu-PF passed resolution 1, stating that the conditions of Mnangagwa and the President of Zimbabwe “should be extended beyond 2028 and revised accordingly.
Mnangagwa claims he is a constitutionalist and will resign in 2028. However, few believe him as he did nothing to cancel Resolution 1.
This is probably a major complaint of his enemy. In a broadcast from the hidden location on Wednesday, Geza listed the suspicions of Mnangagwa’s business peers who said fat had increased in the corrupt government bid.
However, it is unclear how Mnangagwa will remain in the constitutional office. An anonymous senior opposition leader, who is also one of the constitutional architects, told the ISS that three protective measures of the constitution prevent anyone from seeking a third term. These include: No one should provide more than three conditions. Constitutional amendments require approval through a referendum. And incumbents cannot benefit from constitutional reform.
Therefore, he said the legal obstacles to Mnangagwa, who is seeking a third term, are substantial. Like political obstacles, particularly necessary referendums will likely turn into referendums on Mnangawa’s rule. Given the widespread misfortune with him, it would be a tough vote to win.
Opposition leaders thought that Mnangagwa’s strategy was simply to expand his term of office and the current parliamentary term. This would require amendments to the constitution, but he suspected that the factions of Mnangagwa believed they could pass as amendments without a referendum.
It is difficult to assess how serious these rumbles are, whether there will be a March 31 uprising, and whether it will separate Mnangagwa.
It was the army led by Chiwenga that later removed Mugabe in 2017. Daily Maverick recently quoted an unknown military source, saying that Chiuenga still ordered considerable support for the Zimbabwean Defence Forces. However, Mnangagwa holds Philip Valerio Sibanda, loyalty officer of the defense force.
“I don’t know if it’s a coup that was created, but that means the centre can no longer hold it,” Ibbo Mandaza, director of Zimbabwe’s SAPES Trust, told Today.
Brian Raftopulos, a Zimbabwean and democratic expert at Nelson Mandela Public Governance School at the University of Cape Town, believes there is a “real danger” of rapid change. He says Chiwenga’s responsibilities about Mnangagwa’s broken promise to resign in 2028 create departments in Zanu-PF, the military and security facilities. However, he does not foresee “the massive street support they had in 2017.”
Retired David Moore from Johannesburg University’s retired development research agrees. “It would be surprising if many people joined,” he suspects that he will participate, as he shows that the main opposition parties – a large civil coalition for change – will “give up the masses and instead form an alliance with the ruling party and military faction, perhaps examining what some observers are already thinking.”
Raftopoulos added that civil society is also weak. He said, “Mnangagwa will continue to take control of this,” even if there is a violent protest within Zanu-PF. For example, he pointed out that Mnangagwa perceived General Anserem Sanyatwe, Lieutenant Colonel of Zimbabwe, as a major relegation to the Minister of Sports, Recreation and Culture.
“And he will keep moving those who he feels unreliable. In his long-term view, it’s either to contain Chuwenga as much as possible, or to push him out and isolate him. There will be some unrest and uncertainty, and perhaps even attempts to drive out Mnangagwa. “But I have doubts if that will be a full-scale coup attempt.”
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And Raftopoulos believes that regional and global politics are on Mnangagwa’s side when cracking down on the protests. “The global rise on the right has given us traction to authoritarians like Mnangagwa. He now, in the West, especially… who will tell us about the Trump administration, democracy?”
He said Zimbabwe is no longer on the European Union watch list, so “(Mnangagwa) doesn’t have to worry about a blow from the north if he gets violent.”
And according to Raftopoulos, the South African Development Community (SADC) – the Mnangagwa now on the chair – is obsessed with other issues, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Mnangagwa may also bear in mind that after the November 2017 capsization, both the SADC and the African Union took action despite provisions that member states would be suspended after the coup.
They don’t want a military coup in Zimbabwe. Especially when you simply replace one Zanu-PF faction with another faction. But there is no hope for Mnangagwa to break the protest while the indifferent world is watching. This area needs to intervene.
Peter Fabricius, consultant at ISS Pretoria
