Hugh Scofield
BBC News, Paris
Reuters
Marine Le Pen awaits high stakes verdict at party fundraising trial
French marine Le Pen is facing a moment of make-up or break on Monday as judges rule over whether a judge should be banned from the next presidential election.
The strong right leader, ahead of all his rivals in the 2027 race, will be in court at local time (09:00 BST) due to a party fundraising trial verdict targeting her National Assembly (RN) party.
In conclusion at the trial in November, state prosecutors demanded convictions against Le Pen and 24 other people accused of using EU parliamentary funds to pay party salaries.
However, for general surprise, the prosecutors also said Le Pen’s punishment should be ineligible for running for five years, not just for a fine of 300,000 euros (£250,000) and sentence.
Importantly, he said ineligibility should begin straight away and should not be suspended withheld appeals that Marine Le Pen would likely file if convicted.
“My political death”
The three judges are not obligated to follow the prosecutor’s recommendations.
But if that’s the case, that means 56-year-old Le Pen is forbidden from standing in a presidential election where she is turned over as a potential winner.
“It’s my political death,” she said in November.
If the judiciary is seen as interfering with the choice of a country’s leader, it warns not only those who support Le Pen, but also those who support Le Pen, of serious consequences on democracy.
“The judicial system has Marine Le Pen’s fate in his hand… it’s completely normal for her to be convicted of wrongdoing. But she stops running with President [election] – That’s a completely different matter,” veteran analyst Franz Olivier Giesbert wrote for Centre Wright le Point magazine.
“Not dangerous – not dangerous – not dangerous – what would you give a judge a task to determine if this or the candidate has the ability to run for office?” said Bruno Hoody, editor of the LA Tribune Dimanche newspaper on Sunday.
Marine Le Pen told the same newspaper: “Personally, I’m not nervous, but I can see why people think I am. Judges have the power of life and death over the movement.
Various scenarios for the verdict are under scrutiny.
This is four ways
First, Le Pen was able to escape responsibility for the money case in the EU parliament. This is considered unlikely.
Second, the judges can convict her, but will not automatically make the autonomy. In that case, she appealed immediately, and did not apply until after the second trial (and perhaps a third of the High Court of Appeal).
It would allow her to run freely in 2027, but with a handicap of conviction over the misuse of public money. However, given the series of party fundraising scandals that have influenced all French parties over the years, it is not clear that the conviction will cause much damage to her.
Third, a judge can follow the prosecutor and order automatic ineligibility. In this case she appeals and the rest of the sentence (fines and prisons) will be suspended. But she won’t be able to run in 2027.
Fourth, the court can give a short period of automatic ineligibility – for example, one year.
2027 will be Marine Le Pen’s fourth presidential election, offering the greatest chance to win.
Reuters
Le Pen’s logical alternative will be party leader Jordan Bardera (right of the centre).
Right-wing newspaper JDD Sunday’s poll showed that between 34-37% of her first round votes, far surpassing any of her potential rivals.
In the last two presidents, she became a foul in two round system that allowed enemies to ralliate behind one candidate, Emmanuel Macron.
However, the long-standing “detoxification” after she overturned her father Jean-Marie Le Pen to party leadership has brought much less close to RN votes than before, but the fierce right victory in other countries helped to unlock the taboos of the RN government.
If Le Pen is prohibited from running, her logical change is Jordan Bardera, the 29-year-old party president who was groomed to become her ultimate prime minister.
But party officials acknowledge that there was little internal preparation for what is widely seen as a huge, unstable political earthquake.
One of the consequences of Le Pen being declared unenforceable in 2027 is to further weaken Prime Minister François Byroux’s minority French government. With 120 members in the Parliament, RN has the authority to vote left in an unconfident vote to defeat the government.
Until now, Marine Le Pen has held back her army. If you feel she is a victim of facility stitch-ups, she may feel less inclined.
