“Unbelievable.” It was a word that was uttered under her breath by Marine Le Pen when she ran out of a Paris courtroom on Monday morning.
She left the court just before hearing that she had been barred from office for five years after being pleaded guilty to embezzlement of an EU fund.
Without even waiting for the judge to pronounce the details of the sentence, the head of the national assembly knew that her political geese were being cooked.
There are no modest appeals. The bar running to the office was authentic and immediate.
The four-year prison sentence, in which the two are suspended, will be suspended on hold for appeal.
But her political plan is dead.
Le Pen’s distrust can be better excused, perhaps in the context of the moment.
The consensus was largely established throughout the French political world, and this ultimate sanction by the courts could not have been said to have not happened in the end.
Le Pen wasn’t the only one who said that. Her enemies agreed to Jean-Luc Mellenchon on the far left to Prime Minister François Bailloux of the centre and Justice Minister Gerard Dalmanin on the right.
But they were all wrong. The judge said the law is law.
In fact, the law has been reinforced recently by the very politicians who are now complaining about its application, in order to make punishment very strict for misuse of public funds. Now, the judge said in so many words, now he has politicians sucking his medicine.
Perhaps Marine Le Pen was naive in not predicting this outcome. It certainly looks as if her National Assembly Party is not singularly prepared for it.
The party leader was in a dilemma, as they met in the emergency session after the verdict.
Will they continue as if there is still a chance that Marine Le Pen will run in 2027?
In theory, there is still a (small) possibility. She has launched an appeal. The appeals could be accelerated and end the year or early 2026. The verdict continues in the spring.
Another decision on appeal could reduce the duration of ineligible or remove it entirely. In that case, she can still do it. But chances must be considered slim.
Or they need to proceed with Plan B. So does it effectively naming the man running at the Marine Lupen location Jordan Bardera?
That could be a more realistic assessment of what lies ahead. But you don’t think you’re too fast towards Valdera. Anyway, not everyone at the party is a fan.
The selection was made by the evening. With the TV appearance, Marine Le Pen came out into the fight and said she had no plans to retreat from the political scene.
Condemning what she called a “political” decision by a judge and what she called a “violation of the law’s status,” she called for a swift appeal trial, allowing her name to be cleared or at least unqualified in time for the 2027 vote.
“There are millions of French people who believe in me. For 30 years, I have fought injustice, and that’s what I do to the end,” she said.
Words of battle – but in reality the future looks very unclear. And there are many unanswered questions.
For example, what will the effect of a court decision be on RN votes?
In the short term, it can be expected to boost protests and party support. why? What happened is that populist rights are victims of the “system” and therefore fit very nicely into the RN story.
Possibility of voting for RN does not hold it seriously against Marine Le Pen to use EU parliamentary funds to illegally fund her party. They all know that in fact, all French parties have resorted to similar underhand methods in the past.
Similarly, her “Draconian” punishment – forbidden from presidency – is interpreted as a badge of honor. She is the only one who stands up to power.
But in the long run, boost may not be that strong. The truth is that Marine Le Pen is a major asset to RN. The long-suffering woman who suffers from this fight, sentimental, cat-loving, tough talk, is lovingly restrained by her supporters she feels personally known.
Jordan Bardera is also a popular figure, but it’s hard to see him fill her shoes at just 29. If Marine Le Pen is not actually able to run in 2027, RN will lose much of its appeal.
What is certain is that many candidates for non-RN rights, such as Bruno Reciro’s Laurent Waukees – will see a great opportunity for himself in running for Valdera.
Another unknown is vengeance.
Marine Le Pen is a member of the Parliament, and she leads the largest 125 blocks of Congress. Until now, she was benign towards Prime Minister François Beyloux, who struggled despite not having a majority.
It might have ended back then.
They’re probably saying on RN HQ why we should benefit from everyone now. Would you like to take your house down?
