The world’s population exceeded 8 billion in 2023, but the way we can leverage the human potential of this country is very different. India has surpassed China as the world’s most populous country, with 1.43 billion people. At the same time, China’s population is expected to begin to decline after decades of restriction policies, falling below 1 billion by 2100. This demographic shift highlights important divergence.
China’s response to an aging population and reduced fertility (1.2 births per woman) was to double the hegemony and infrastructure of technology. The country controls sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and high speed rail, and is supported by an increasingly skilled workforce in the STEM field. This change reflects a broader perception that human capital (not just population size) drives long-term prosperity.
Nigeria, the most populous in Africa, exemplifies the risks of uncontrolled demographics. 45% of the population is under the age of 15, and the country faces aggravated security crisis with youth unemployment and inflation rates above 34%. Politicians often prioritize power over policy, leaving the development of human capital unblessed, such as education and healthcare. When anxiety replaces 1.3 million people in the North, the link between governance obstacles and demographic stagnation cannot be denied.
Liberal economists advocate for consumption-driven growth to counter populist rhetoric and argue that they will strengthen a middle-class fuel-sustainable economy. However, this model is unstable without equitable access to education and healthcare. In the US, Trump-era policies prioritize protectionism against human capital and exacerbate disparities. Conversely, Germany and France allocate more than 11% of their GDP to public health, promoting a productive and stable workforce. The lesson is clear. Populism thrives in division, but lasting growth requires investment in people.
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The harsh reality was revealed in the local elections in Nigeria. Governance is often reduced to competitions for power, not progress. Despite the bulging of young people, less than 20% of Nigerian women participate in the workforce, and 90% of employment remains informal.
The World Bank estimates that every dollar invested in education will bring $10 in financial returns. While underfunded schools and healthcare in Nigeria perpetuates the cycle of poverty, China emphasizes that it focuses on STEM and India’s burgeoning technology sector.
Stakes are universal. India must bridge the division between the north and south, and China must maintain innovation without thwarting objections. Nigeria needs leaders who view the population as an asset rather than a burden.
Questions remain. Can we take advantage of population growth as an engine of inclusive growth or be fooled as a symbol of a possible overlooked? The answer lies in governance, which people value more than power.
Moshood, Oshunfurewa Adebola & Aremu Lukman Umor wrote from Lagos
