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Our current estimate is that Labor leads the Coalition 51.5-48.5 on a two-party-preferred basis. The two-party-preferred vote share has been trending towards a repeat of the last election.
Political scientists have struggled to model how a possible increased vote share for independents and minor parties would translate into actual seats. But the results of a YouGov MRP model released today suggest that Labor may increase their seat total.
You can find more granular breakdowns of the polling on our tracking page.
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Updated at 20.49 EDT
Dan Jervis-Bardy
Albanese is asked if he’s got a “hype song” for election day.
He nominates “Sounds of Then (This is Australia)“ by pop rock band GANGgajang.
It’s a great uplifting song, I just hope it’s uplifting on Saturday
If you’re not familiar with the tune, have a listen.
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Updated at 20.53 EDT
Dan Jervis-Bardy
‘We’ve got a mountain to climb’: PM
Albanese has phoned in for a quick interview with Hamish McDonald on ABC radio Sydney.
He’s asked about the latest YouGov poll, which showed Labor would win 84 seats – a clear majority – if an election was held today.
I have no expectations. After 2019 (election loss), where people got a shock on the night, it’s really important to not get ahead of ourselves on the basis of polling that just essentially answer what people think at a particular point in time.
We’re working really hard. No prime minister has been re-elected since 2004 when John Howard got re-elected.
I know we’ve got a mountain to climb.
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Updated at 20.37 EDT
Tom McIlroy
Trump campaign chief claims he visited Australia to advise Liberals at start of election campaign
One of the architects of Donald Trump’s 2024 victory claims he made an unpublicised visit to Australia to advise the Liberal party about “structural issues” related to Peter Dutton ahead of the federal election.
With just two full days of campaigning left, Guardian Australia has reported this morning that the veteran Republican strategist Chris LaCivita told undercover reporters posing as prospective clients for political consulting work he was working as a private consultant on the visit to Australia, not in an official capacity or as an adviser to the US president.
Chris LaCivita (centre). Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images
Footage of the undercover conversations was published on Thursday by the Europe-based organisations Correctiv and the Centre for Climate Reporting.
‘‘I was in Australia two weeks ago helping the Liberal party there, on some of their structural issues that they were having with Peter Dutton,” LaCivita said on 16 April in the first of two calls. Australia’s election campaign began on 28 March.
In a statement, LaCivita told Guardian Australia: “I did not and do not work for the Liberal Party of Australia. I provide consulting to a wide variety of business interests – some in Australia some in the US etc in terms of a political party – I have not.
Also, I have never met Mr Dutton, but I hope to when he is elected prime minister.
A Coalition campaign spokesman said:
Mr LaCivita is not advising, has never advised, and is not involved in any way with the Coalition campaign. Mr Dutton has not met with him.
You can read the story here:
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Updated at 20.33 EDT
Dutton walks back school curriculum changes, says ‘we don’t have any proposals’
Peter Dutton walked back the Coalition’s previous pledge to change the national school curriculum.
During his press conference earlier, our reporter Josh Butler asked Dutton what the Coalition wanted to change, after previously claiming students were being “indoctrinated” in schools.
Dutton said he’d “work with parents to reflect what they want to see”, but when pushed by Butler to say what changes are on the table, Dutton responded:
We don’t have any proposals.
The last school curriculum was put in place during the Morrison government.
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Updated at 20.35 EDT
‘I’m not sure the Joe Exotic issue is within my remit,’ says Albanese
You might have seen the very out of the blue endorsement for Anthony Albanese by the star of Netflix series, Tiger King’s, Joe Exotic.
At the National Press Club yesterday, Albanese was asked for his initial reaction to the endorsement, from a man who is currently in a US jail.
He had a chuckle, saying it was good to have “some levity” in the campaign but that he wasn’t aware of the endorsement.
Well the plot has thickened since, with Exotic stating on social media that he wanted Albanese to “call President Trump” to secure his release. He wrote:
I made a public offer to work for their zoo for free for six months or any other wildlife conservation if he [Albanese] would call President Trump and ask for me to be released based on the American governments witnesses have admitted to perjury. Will make the same offer to President Trump or the President of Mexico.
Albanese was asked about the update on Triple M Perth:
Maybe he heard about what we were able to do with Julian Assange, who’s now, you know, enjoying life with his family …
It must be said, I’m not sure that the Joe Exotic issue is within my remit.
A screenshot of an Instagram post by Joe Exotic. The post shows Joe Exotic promoting Anthony Albanese as prime minister for Australia. Photograph: InstagramShare
Updated at 20.07 EDT
Ella Archibald-Binge
Leading Indigenous organisation calls for focus on eliminating Indigenous disadvantage
As the election campaign descends into a culture war, a leading Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health research body has called on the next government to focus on eliminating Indigenous disadvantage.
The Lowitja Institute said the election provided an opportunity for the incoming government to reaffirm its commitment to the National Agreement on Closing the Gap. Only four of the 19 targets are on track, while some – including suicide and incarceration rates – are going backwards.
The organisation’s chief executive, Paul Stewart, said long-term funding for Aboriginal community-controlled organisations was key to meeting the targets by 2030.
We know that research led by us and for us leads to effective outcomes.
Lack of consistency and a business-as-usual approach from government and agencies in supporting Aboriginal-led solutions is slowing progress towards closing the gap.
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Updated at 19.55 EDT
‘Men have a responsibility,’ says PM on domestic violence
Anthony Albanese has continued his run on commercial radio this morning, joining Triple M radio in WA.
The interview is a lot more serious, with the hosts asking Albanese what Labor is doing to combat domestic and family violence.
Albanese says his government’s response has been “comprehensive”, citing the domestic violence leave payments, funding women’s shelters and the social media ban for under 16s.
Albanese adds that there needs to be a whole-of-society change, and that men need to do more.
It’s not just about government. You and I, men have a responsibility. Call out bad behaviour when we see when we see it, when we hear it, it needs to be talked about. We need to engage as well in education issues.
The interview pivots at the end to those text messages almost everyone has been getting from the Trumpet of Patriots. Can we get rid of them, ask the hosts?
It’s pretty painful for people, isn’t it? … I’m not sure that we can, but if we can, I’m certainly up for it, because it’s just really annoying… So yeah, I’m gonna have a look at it. If we’re successful on Saturday,
Anthony Albanese during a commercial radio appearance in Perth on Thursday. Photograph: Alex Ellinghausen/AAPShare
Updated at 20.33 EDT
Polling analyst makes bold prediction
Independent polling analyst Kevin Bonham has given us a bit more context on that latest polling from YouGov, predicting that Labor is on track for an even larger majority.
Bonham says there’s a caveat in seat-by-seat polling, writing on BlueSky:
They are models based off small samples from each seat that are then interlocked using the assumption that a seat will behave similarly to other similar seats. Even if the overall picture is right, individual seats can be way off.
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Updated at 19.37 EDT
Amanda Meade
ABC managing director responds to Dutton’s ‘hate media’ spray
The ABC managing director, Hugh Marks, has broken his silence on Peter Dutton’s claim that the ABC is part of the “hate media”, saying it’s “disappointing” that all the work done at the ABC is not recognised by the opposition leader.
On Sunday Dutton told supporters: “Forget about what you have been told by the ABC, in the Guardian and the other hate media.”
Peter Dutton calls the ABC and the Guardian ‘hate media’ – video
Marks was also asked to respond to Dutton’s quip on FM radio yesterday that people shouldn’t watch the ABC’s election coverage on Saturday night.
“It’s no laughing matter,” Marks told Ali Moore on ABC Melbourne.
There is a lot of work that goes on behind the scenes. There are a lot of good people that work at this organisation. There is a great sense of purpose and a great sense of purpose for Australia.
The former CEO of Nine Entertainment, who began his tenure at the public broadcaster last month, named ABC election projects Your Say and Vote Compass as services the ABC is providing as part of its election coverage.
I’m really proud of this election coverage.
We started off with a very clear focus on policy. You know, we wanted to talk about policy not politics. We wanted to talk about policy not personality. And I think the team has done an incredible job.
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Updated at 19.15 EDT
Rafqa Touma
Anthony Albanese can’t imagine smoking weed with Kyle Sandilands
You never really know what you’re going to get with commercial radio, and today’s interview is certainly something.
“Can you ever imagine you and I blowing a spliff together,” the radio host asked, very seriously.
Albanese: “Now, I can’t imagine that Kyle.”
The prime minister said moves to legalise cannabis are up to the states.
But Albanese’s answers seem to do the trick, with the hosts at the end of the chat calling him “fun”.
Sandilands says, “He can handle anything, yeah, throw him a curveball, he whacks that out of the park.”
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Updated at 20.01 EDT
Rafqa Touma
‘There’s no room for complacency’: Albanese
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is speaking to Kyle Sandilands and Jackie O on KIIS 1065 this morning.
Albanese says he can’t get complacent despite polls showing votes are in his favour, referencing the 2019 Liberal election win:
There’s no room for complacency. You might remember 2019, everyone thought Labor was going to win on election night, we didn’t win. It wasn’t because of a miracle and intervention from up above. It was because of the way that people filled in ballot papers.
We want every single vote. There’s a lot at stake at this election, whether everyone gets a tax cut, whether students get 20% cut off their debt, whether we have a policy that we have to deal with climate change, whether we have energy bill relief, whether we have cheaper childcare. All of these issues are at stake, whether your listeners can get a first home with just a 5% deposit.
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Updated at 19.12 EDT
Labor to win clear majority, Coalition in trouble: YouGov poll
Federal Labor will govern with a clear majority while the Coalition will suffer its worst election result in 80 years, if YouGov’s final poll before the election comes true, AAP reports.
YouGov’s modelling points to an 84-seat win for the government, out of 150 lower house seats, to return the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to The Lodge for a second term. The winning party needs 76 seats for a majority.
Under this scenario, the Coalition will drop to 47 seats – a net loss of 11 – meaning the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, will have led his party to its worst seat total since 1946.
Liberal frontbenchers David Coleman, Michael Sukkar and Dan Tehan would all lose their seats.
(Back row, left to right): Liberal frontbenchers Dan Tehan, Michael Sukkar and David Coleman are tipped to lose their seats, according to a YouGov poll. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
All of the sitting independents are tipped to retain their seats, while independent challengers are tipped to win Calare, Cowper, Wannon and Bradfield from the Coalition.
The Greens could lose Brisbane to Labor, dropping their lower house seat total to three, according to YouGov.
Labor could pick up Braddon in Tasmania, Banks in NSW, Bonner in Queensland, Menzies and Deakin in Victoria, Moore in Western Australia and Sturt in South Australia from the Coalition, YouGov predicts.
However, the Coalition is tipped to reclaim Aston in Melbourne, which it lost to Labor in a historic byelection in 2023. Public data director Paul Smith said:
YouGov’s MRP [or modelling] shows Labor will now win decisively in the outer suburban and regional marginal seats that tend to decide Australian elections.
Just a note here: margin of errors can be higher when doing a seat-by-seat prediction.
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Updated at 19.17 EDT
Dutton denies his office asked Exclusive Brethren members to help election campaign
Dutton denies his office asked the Exclusive Brethren to help the Coalition campaign.
There have been reports that members of the religious sect – whose members don’t vote, and have hardline stances on abortion and marriage equality – have been volunteering for Liberal candidates.
Dutton has been asked whether it’s appropriate the sect volunteers with the party, but the opposition leader has batted away the questions, and has said members of all religions have been involved with campaigning.
Dutton is asked today whether his office has asked for the support from the sect, but he says, “no”, and quickly moves on.
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Updated at 19.08 EDT
Dutton says election is not a ‘referendum’ on the campaign
In his preamble, Dutton said that the election would be “a referendum, not about the election campaign, but about the last three years of government”.
A reporter asks whether that means he’s unhappy with how the last four and a half weeks of the election have gone.
Dutton doesn’t bite on his feeling of how the campaign has gone, and says:
I just think Australians [are] now most worried about what the next three years looks like, and they’re worried that if there is an Albanese government.
Another reporter asks another question about the “referendum” comment, and asks whether Dutton could have done things differently through the campaign.
Dutton says:
We should have pulled [up] Labor’s lies earlier on. That’s something I’ve commented on before.
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Updated at 19.07 EDT
Dutton refuses to say what Coalition wants changed about the school curriculum
Our reporter Josh Butler asks what exactly the Coalition wants to change in the school curriculum.
Last month, Dutton was asked about a “woke agenda” in curriculums, and in response, the opposition leader suggested students were being “indoctrinated” at school. The shadow education minister, Sarah Henderson, has said the party would have more to say about that curriculum change through the campaign.
The latest school curriculum was put in place under Scott Morrison’s government. Today, Dutton says:
Well, what we’ll do is we’ll work with parents to reflect what they want to see in the education system, and that is a good education for their children.
Peter Dutton speaks in Brisbane on Thursday morning. Photograph: Dan Peled/Getty Images
Josh tries again to ask exactly what the Coalition wants to change. Dutton says:
We don’t have any proposals.
He quickly moves on to the next question.
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Updated at 20.11 EDT
Dutton asked about cost of slashing skilled migration program
There’s a fair bit that the Coalition has promised will be released in today’s costings.
Sara Tomevska asks whether the Coalition will factor in the impacts on productivity that could come with cutting the skilled migration program.
Dutton says, “we’ve done work with the PBO, and that’ll be reflected in our costings that we’ll release”.
Our economics editor Patrick Commins has some great analysis on what the migration cuts could look like and mean for the economy.
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Updated at 18.45 EDT
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