What are the terms and conditions for the deal the US is trying to negotiate with DRC and Rwanda?
The Trump administration is interested in strengthening its key mineral supply chains, and the order appears to be central to a new approach to Africa. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will become an early focus given the country’s vast mineral wealth. However, as US officials pursue a trading approach to foreign policy, many questions have emerged about what transactions are on the table.
The first complication, or opportunity, is the security situation, depending on your perspective. Against the backdrop of persistent unrest in the eastern Congo, the M23, a Rwandan-backed rebel, is aggressive and seized a large swath of territory and key cities in Goma and Bukabu. Kinshasa is unable to defeat Rwandan-backed rebels, unable to gather enough diplomatic regional support, and is keen to involve the US in the pursuit of the administration’s survival, and proposes future security transactions.
The conflict is vicious and spurs a dememaving crazy humanitarian crisis. So, that was good news when the foreign ministers of Rwandan and Congo joined Washington, D.C. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on April 25th to sign the Declaration of Principles aimed at establishing the framework for subsequent peace plans. Rubio clearly stated that the deal “helps protect our strategic interest in critical minerals and helps us grow our technological sector.”
However, the mission to bring peace to the eastern Congo is far from being achieved. The recent past has been littered with broken ceasefires and fruitless mediation efforts. Rwandan aggression and DRC’s own corruption and broken governance were co-conspirators that promoted the current crisis. Even transactions that meet the leadership of these countries but lack the transparency and viable means to translate the social goods of the population into social goods may be viewed as skepticism by the Congolese people. Prominent civil society leaders warned against the sale of the nation’s resources for foreign power. This is a dynamic with a long and tragic history in the country.
But the DRC government is not the only actor trying to capitalize on Washington’s new enthusiasm for Delma King. Rwandan leadership has skillfully sought to become an essential actor in the region and beyond by providing himself as a solution to other people’s troublesome problems. In addition to contributions to the UN peacekeeping mission, Kigali sent soldiers to help contain the Central African Republic and Mozambique rebellion. Certainly, under international pressure to support violent rebels in eastern Congo, Rwandans are thinking about how they will serve the Trump administration.
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The news that the country has begun accepting deportation from the US – it has nothing to do with Rwanda – is ringing the bell. Former British Prime Minister Rishi Snack supported a similar plan to lead refugees arriving in the UK to Rwanda and meet resistance from British courts and human rights advocates. Eventually, Sunak lost his job and his successor abolished the plan, but not before the UK paid Rwanda about £290 million. Perhaps the UK example has influenced the secrets surrounding the Trump administration’s new initiative. However, it is worth asking what Rwanda wants beyond financial support in exchange for accepting deportation from the US, and how this will affect the administration’s sudden enthusiasm for being involved in negotiations between Kinshasa and Kigali.
Rwanda has its own mineral resources. However, there are also cases where several important minerals exported from Rwanda emerged in the eastern DRC, allowing armed groups to control key mining areas and smuggling networks. How many of this may be formalized in future deals? What about Uganda’s extraction network? The United States’ outlook congratulates the decision on who will benefit financially from Congolese resources, while supporting the unstable government in Kinshasa.
