The Kentucky Derby offers one of the most unique betting opportunities in the sport.
One reason: The race is 1¼ mile long and there are up to 20 horses on the field. All horses are 3 years old, so no one has raced that distance yet. Combine it with a crowd of over 100,000 people attending Churchill Downs and doing so can happen unexpectedly.
Rich Strike was last-minute added to the field in 2022 due to the wound, winning with 80-1 odds and paying $163.60 to win with a $2 bet. Mystik Dan, who was 18-1, won last year, but Fierceness came in 12th. Mystik Dan paid $39.22 to win for $2.
Essentially, it’s one of the few races that attract attention from casual race fans and the general public, not all year round fans. It is the kind of race where horse colour-based bets are likely to be made in the same way as bets notified in handicap weeks.
Numerically speaking, when Mystic Dunn came third in the Arkansas Derby last year, punching a ticket to Churchill Downs, the amount placed on that type of bet at Oak Lawn Park was $2.4 million.
When he won the Kentucky Derby, the “Win/Location/Show” pool was $104 million.
This means there could be a big payout, especially if journalism, which is expected to be highly preferred to participate in this race, can end the board.
This is what you need to know.
Top Story Line: What People Are Talking
Katherine Terrell
Bob Baffert returned after three years of ban
Editor’s Pick
2 Related
He won six Kentucky Derby trainer Bob Baffert (including Triple Crown winners American Pharaoh and Justify) – has recently recovered after being banned for three years by Churchill Downs. This comes after his trainee Medina Spirit was disqualified from his 2021 Derby victory due to a failed drug test. Medina Spirit died of a heart attack during training later that year.
Baffert has two horses in this year’s race. He breaks out of the railing Citizen Bull (1st post), jockey Martin Garcia and post No. 4, and rides Rodriguez, with Mike Smith. Set the pace, hoping that both horses will be near the front.
Smith, 59, could be the oldest jockey to win the Kentucky Derby, surpassing Billshoemaker, who was 54 when he won Ferdinand in 1986.
Japanese Derby candidates are pushing
Over the past few years, Japan-based horses have become serious candidates. Your Kentucky Derby entry is based on points you earned in the prep race for the event.
The “Nihon Road” to the Kentucky Derby was founded in 2017, and the horses shipped from these races are improving each year. Japan-based Eternal Young came third in the Kentucky Derby last year.
This year’s two Japanese candidates are praising Daytona and Luxor Café. Luxor Café, the son of the American Pharaoh, won four consecutive races, and took an impressive five-length victory in the Fukui Stakes in Japan on March 29th.
Luxor Café is making his North American debut, so it’s unclear how he will deal with the surface of Churchill Downs, but he certainly shows his talent.
He raced four times on the wet track – something to watch if it rains on a Derby day.
A race for the elderly?
Smith has the opportunity to make history as the oldest jockey, but there are also plenty of veteran trainers on the field.
The oldest trainer to win the Kentucky Derby was Art Sherman. He was 77 when he won California Chrome in 2014. Charlie Whittittim won Sunday silence in 1989 at the age of 76.
Ronnie Briley, a 72-year-old trainer from Louisiana, may have the most interesting story. Brilly never won a rated stakes winner until 2023 when he bought the coal fight for $70,000. Jockey Fun Vargas and owner Robbie Norman are also taking part in the first derby.
There are also Baffert, 72, and Billmott, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby after the country house was first placed following the biggest security disqualification, and Baffert, 71. Mott recently said that sovereignty represents his “best chance” to cross the wire first.
Don’t rule out John Sireff, who has been looking for his first Derby victory since Longshot Giacomo won in 2005 with a 50-1 odds just before his 60th birthday. Famous for his training for the Hall of Fame Zenyatta, Sirevus wants to put Baeza in the race, but only appears on the field if he has a wound.
Derby winners D. Wayne Lucas and Belmont have bet four times, and Preakness has betted seven times (most recently last year). He entered into American promises this year and turned 90 in September.
Journalism begins as a favorite to win the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Andy Lions/Getty Images
What does the insider say?
Anita Mark
We are two minutes and a few days apart, the most exciting thing about sports. As posting time approaches, here’s what the insider is saying:
Journalism: My favorite in the race is to check all the boxes. They are the best horses in terms of pedigree, speed and distance, but the best horses in the derby don’t always win. At the time of post, the value is not wagered on him.
Burnham Square: After an impressive show in the Bluegrass Stakes, he has gained a lot of love from the handicapper. Derby has a lot of speed, which could be set up well to get him away from the pace of stretching. The value is at 12-1.
Bob Baffert’s Return: Buffert has two horses running in the derby, Citizen Bull comes out of the No. 1 post and No. 4 Rodriguez wins Wood Memorial, giving him the perfect chance to walk with Roses, but he has to get out of the gate very quickly.
Final Gambit: My favorite long shot. This horse has never competed for dirt before on the grass, but this race works well for him. He has the speed to get out of the pace and he trains well. This is a “smart man” horse heading into the Derby.
Chunk of Gold: This is because the “rags to wealth” horse of this year’s Derby, and he was purchased for just $2,500. He finished second in the Louisiana Derby and worked with trainer Ethan West, who was only 32 years old.
The two horses are expected to scratch before the post-time (Grande and American Promise). This opens the door for Baeza to participate in the race. He is a half-brother of both Mage and Dornock, and will ride the Baeza once champion Jockey Flavieen Pratt arrives. He has generated a lot of talk.
How to bet a race
Katherine Terrell
2025 Kentucky Derby Field
post
silk
name
Odds
trainer
Jumper
style
record
Bayer
Note
1
Citizen Bull
20-1
Bob Baffert
Martin Garcia
Pacesetter
6:4-0-1
98
No. 1 has not won since 1986.
2
Neo Cos
30-1
Saffy Joseph
Flavien Plat
Stalker
7:2-2-2
91
Pratt will ride Baeza if he pulls in.
3
The final gambit
30-1
Brad Cox
Luang Machado
Closer
4:2-1-1
90
It’s not lace due to dirt, and you can close if you have the pace
4
Rodriguez
12-1
Bob Baffert
Mike Smith
Stalker
5:2-2-1
101
5
America’s promise
30-1
D Wayne Lucas
Nick Juarez
Pacesetter
9:2-1-1
95
I haven’t raced in 7 weeks
6
Praise Daytona
30-1
Yukimizu River
Christophe Lemer
Midpack
6:2-2-0
n/a
UAE Derby winner lost twice to Luxor Cafe
7
Luxor Cafe
15-1
Noriyuki Hori
Joao Molira
Midpack
6:4-1-0
n/a
4:3-1 Wet Track
8
Journalism
3-1
Michael McCarthy
Humberto Rispoli
Midpack
5:4-0-1
108
9
Burnham Square
12-1
Ian Wilkes
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Closer
6:3-3-1
96
Only two geldings won this century
10
Grande
20-1
Todd Plecher
John Velazquez
Midpack
3:2-1-0
97
I didn’t race at age 2
11
Flying Mohawk
30-1
Whit Beckman
Joe Ramos
Closer
6:2-2-0
84
I’ve never laid on dirt
12
East Avenue
20-1
Brendan Walsh
Manny Franco
Pacesetter
5:2-1-0
96
13
Publisher
30-1
Steve Asmussen
Irad Ortiz
Closer
7:0-2-3
95
Only three people have won the Derby.
14
Tiztastic
20-1
Steve Asmussen
Joel Rosario
Closer
8:3-1-2
95
15
I’ll make a judgment
30-1
Ken McPeak
Julien Reparoo
Midpack
7:1-2-1
90
I’m currently dealing with foot problems
16
Coal war
30-1
Ronnie Brilly
Juanvargas
Midpack
8:5-0-1
91
17
Sandman
6-1
Mark Cass
Jose Ortiz
Closer
8:3-1-2
99
18
sovereignty
5-1
Bill Mott
Jose Alvarado
Closer
5:2-2-0
95
19
A lump of gold
30-1
Ethan West
Jareth loveberry
Closer
4:1-3-0
92
20
Owen Anomaty
30-1
Brian Lynch
Javier Castellano
Pacesetter
7:3-2-0
93
twenty one
Baeza
12-1
John Silef
Flavien Plat
Stalker
4:1-2-0
101
If there is a scratch, it will come in
Key: Green = Contender gray = Don’t count red = Pretender
Race Record Format: Race: Win Place Show
BeyerBest Beyer recorded
About the chart above: Beyer numbers are speed rating systems during the race. Some believe that horses need at least one race that runs a 95 Beyer number or more to be competitive in the derby. Many of these horses have races running over 100 Beyer numbers.
You’ll go in this race any way you want. First time bettors, who would like to enjoy the experience? As a loser, carbonize “overall” for $2. When he enters first, second or third, it costs $6 and pays. Who doesn’t want to support a good story?
If you can’t find a reason to bet on favorable journalism, be sure and put the money on him to finish first. Journalism will probably become a heavy favorite, so bet $20 to win.
Or, if you want to get into more of the core Zarazas, bet the exact or triple box with journalism on the “top.” This means the “winning” position as the “key” and the many horses below it.
If you “key” the horse with a bet, that means you like enough temper to ensure it wins. Therefore, you place the horse (and only that horse) in the exact or triple top position. The more horses you add, the more money it costs. Next, place your favorite horse in the second position, then place the horse that may hit the board in the third place.
Try the keyring journalism at Luxor Café, Sovereignty, Baeza (if he retreated).
The total cost of the $2 Exacta is $12. Boxing Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty, Baeza costs $24 for a $2 bet.
Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty, Baeza, Luxor Cafe, Sovereignty, Baeza, Burnham Square, Grande, Tiztastic, Coal Warfare, Sandman, Sandman, Rodriguez, chunks of gold cost $30 in third position.
Want to beat your favorite? Luxor Café certainly has a lot of history to overcome, and he probably won’t get the same wide travels he’s got before in such a large field. However, his final race was too impressive to ignore. And don’t ignore sovereignty that can bring decent prices to the Hall of Fame trainer motto. If you want to go this route, throw at least $10 or more at either of them “fully.”
Take me to the window
Anita Mark
How do you play Derby? Exacta Box = 7, 8, 9
7. Luxor Cafe: The son of an American pharaoh, and he wiped out the race for the Derby on the Japanese roads. He’s not as good as he’s forever younger, only in his turf pedigree, but on Saturday he could still be a huge surprise.
8. Journalism: The best horse on the field, and he received a great draw at 8 posts. The eighth post has produced nine winners since 1930, and he speeds inside and out, which benefits him. He was kept at this distance and was Carlin’s son.
9. Burnham Square: Very impressive in the Bluegrass Stakes, he has gained a lot of love from his handicappers. There is a lot of speed in this race and should help this horse move away from the pace of stretching.
