Olga IVShina
BBC News Russian Special Reporter
EPA-EFE/REX/SHUTTERSTOCK
Russian conscription trains for combat in the first year of full-scale war
Last year was the most deadly for the Russian army since the start of a full-scale war in Ukraine. At least 45,287 people have been killed.
This is almost triple the first year of the invasion, and well beyond the losses in 2023, when the longest and deadly battle of the war took place in Bahmut.
At the start of the war, losses occurred in waves during battles in major locations, but in 2024 the frontline slowly advanced, allowing Russia to establish that at least 27 people in Ukrainian territory had been captured.
The BBC Russia service worked with an independent media outlet Media Zona and a team of volunteers to process open source data from Russian cemeteries, military memorials and obituaries.
So far, we have identified the names of 106,745 Russian soldiers killed during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The true numbers are clearly much higher. Military experts estimate that our number could cover 45% to 65% of deaths, meaning 164,223-237,211 people.
February 20, 2024 was the most deadly day for the Russian military in 2024.
Among the victims were Aldar Baylov, Igor Baybeach and Okhungjong Rastamov.
They were ordered to line up at the medal ceremony. Sixty-five soldiers, including the commander commander, were killed. Dozens more were injured.
At age 22, Bailov, from Belyatia in eastern Siberia, studied as a food hygiene expert, but was drafted for forced military service and later signed a contract to become a professional soldier.
In February 2022 he went to fight in Ukraine, and was part of the battle with Borodanka while the brigade headed for Kiev in March 2022 was moving forward. The town was almost completely destroyed. According to Ukrainian sources, Russian soldiers were involved in the execution of civilians.
Family handouts
Aldar Bairov (left), Okhunjon Rustamov (C) and Igor Babych were all killed on strike on February 20th last year
Okhunjon Rustamov, 31 years old from Chita, Siberia, worked as a welding machine after serving a mandatory period in the Special Forces. He was mobilized in the October 2022 partial draft.
Unlike Rustamov, 32-year-old Igor Babych volunteered to go to war. He worked with adults and children diagnosed with cerebral palsy to help them with physical therapy until April 2023.
Our data shows that the Russian soldiers who died that day died in total.
Hours after the strike at the training ground, then Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shuig met Vladimir Putin, bringing news of military success from the frontline.
There was no mention of training ground attacks, and no mention was made in daily reports from the Ministry of Defense.
Okhunjon Rustamov’s relatives said that three close families had already been buried during the course of the war. “My husband passed away in December 2022. My Godfather on February 10th, 2024. And my brother on February 20th. From one funeral to the next.”
The analysis prioritized the exact date of death of the soldier. If it was not available, the date of the funeral or the date on which the death was reported was used.
During the first two years of the war in 2022 and 2023, Russian losses followed a wave-like pattern.
For example, in 2023, most casualties occurred between January and March. Russian forces attempted to capture the cities of Voredar and Bahmut in Donetsk.
According to our calculations, in the first year of a full-scale invasion, Russia lost at least 17,890 soldiers. This number does not include losses from two Russian proxy forces in occupied eastern Ukraine.
In 2023, that number rose to 37,633.
There was no period in 2024 showing a significant decline in casualties. Avdiivka and Robotyne’s bloody battle was followed by an intensifying attack on Pokrovsk and Toretsk.
In August 2024, Russian conscriptions were killed when Ukrainian forces raided the Kursk region across the border. An estimated 1,226 Russian soldiers were killed in August 6th-13 alone.
However, US military analyst Michael Coffman said that the heaviest overall loss occurred when Russia’s progress in the eastern region was slow from September to November 2024.
“The tactics highlighted repeated attacks by dispersed assault groups and used small infantry fire teams to increase overall casualties compared to the terrain,” he explained.
After almost two years of intense fighting, the Russian army seized the logistics hub in Vhredaar in Donetsk on October 1, 2024.
From September to November 2024, the Russian army acquired 2,356 square kilometers of Ukraine, according to estimates from the US War Research Institute (ISW).
Still, the Ukrainian army in front of it did not collapse.
The cost of this advance was the deaths of at least 11,678 Russian troops.
Actual loss numbers are probably higher. We only described soldiers and officers whose names appeared in publicly available obituaries and whose dates of death or funerals fell during this period.
Overall, in 2024, Russia occupied 4,168 square kilometers of land, according to ISW. This means that 27 Russian soldiers were killed for each square kilometre captured, which does not include the injured.
How losses are changing adoption
Russia has found a way to replenish its depleted troops.
“Russia recruitment also increased in the second half of 2024, allowing Moscow to create additional formations beyond the Russian casualties,” says Michael Coffman.
Three regions of Russia have increased one-off payments to soldiers signing new contracts. Volunteer soldiers’ combat salaries are five to seven times the average wage in most regions.
He also serves in class as volunteers who signed up to avoid criminal prosecution allowed by law in 2024.
Volunteers have become the fastest growing category of victims in our calculations, making up a quarter of what we have identified.
On 2023-2024, thousands of volunteers who signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense were sent to the frontline just 10-14 days later. Experts say that this minimal training dramatically reduces the chances of survival.
Bashkortostan, one of the Russian Republic, confirmed 4,836 people had died, resulting in the most casualties. Most came from rural areas, with 38% going to fight without military experience.
A one-time payment to sign a Russian Army contract with the UFA is 34 times the average salary in the region of 67,575 rubles (600 pounds).
The calculation of deaths from open source data is always incomplete.
This is because the bodies of a considerable number of soldiers killed in the past few months are still on the battlefield, and retrieving them could pose a risk of serving the soldiers.
The true death toll for the Russian army will increase dramatically. Includes those who fought Ukraine as part of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic.
Reports of the search for fighter jets that lost their death evaluation and contact suggest that between 21,000 and 23,500 people may have been killed by September 2024.
This will bring the total number of deaths to between 185,000 and 260,700 soldiers.
