You can bring you back to an era when trade was about relationships. In Africa, commerce was built on the basis of barter. It was a system that was revolutionary at the time, but was free of its flaws. Imagine the bustling markets of Kenya in the 19th century. There, coastal fishermen exchanged fresh catches for grain from hinterlands, and weavers exchanged livestock for livestock. These transactions were essential, but there were limitations. The lack of standardized currency made trade difficult and reliant on the coincidence of desire. Over time, as society evolved and trade routes expanded, Africa embraced a more structured system of exchange, integrating it into regional and ultimately global trade networks.
Fast forward to today, Africa’s participation in international trade is no longer determined by formal agreements defining access to the global economy, rather than by an open-air market exchange. Of these, Africa’s Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is one of the most transformative ones, particularly for Kenya. Since its founding in 2000, Agoa has bridged African countries, including Kenya. It promotes economic growth, industrialization and job creation in the vast US market. But now the bridge is at risk of collapse. As AGOA is set to expire in September 2025, the urgency of renewal cannot be denied. The question is: will policymakers act on time or will they allow this important economic and social artery to collapse?
The story of Agoa is one of the opportunities. As of today, AGOA-led exports generate around $600 million a year. Kenya directly employs over 58,000 people in the apparel industry alone, supporting an estimated five dependents per worker with an indirect employment of one-to-one ratio. This means that around 580,000 people rely on exporting apparel to the US under the AGOA. Beyond apparel, Kenya’s Agro-Commodities exports also maintain thousands of additional livelihoods across the country.
These are more than just numbers. They represent real families whose livelihoods depend on Agoa. To put this in perspective, the typical apparel manufacturing plant employee will likely support the entire household, ensure that children go to school, and basic needs will be met.
Kenyan exporters have fought hard to build a thriving business under Agoa. However, they continue to navigate the unstable global trade environment. Global supply chains remain vulnerable, and inflation continues to increase input costs. For a Kenyan company that has long relied on Agoa’s preference to compete in the US market, this unpredictability is more than a storm that passes as it is a wake-up call to acquire trade contracts earlier. They responded with resilience and innovation, but resilience alone cannot protect the future if Agoa, the very foundation of market access, is allowed to expire.
It is important to note that Agoa is consistent with America’s unique economic and strategic priorities and is a central pillar of America First policy. In fact, the US enjoys a positive balance within the agreement. Maintaining strong trade ties with Africa is our greatest benefit when the US aims to strengthen its global supply chain and reduce its dependence on Asia. The “America First” idea doesn’t mean America alone. Rather, it means ensuring that American consumers and businesses have access to stable, cost-effective, high-quality products from trusted partners. By maintaining AGOA, the US ensures that its companies benefit from predictable supply chains, American retailers continue to source affordable goods, and work within the US has led to the success of African manufacturing.
We cannot overemphasize the impact that AGOA has on US businesses. For the past decade, American companies have leveraged AGOA to access critical supplies such as raw materials, oil and more, maintaining diversifying supply chains and competitive pricing. For industries such as textiles, agriculture, and automotive manufacturing, AGOA ensures a stable flow of ethically produced goods at competitive prices. Furthermore, the stability that Agoa promotes in Africa reduces economic despair.
But what happens if Agoa isn’t updated? The results will be devastating not only for Kenya, but for the entire US-Africa trade ecosystem. The factory, which was built for 20 years with a multi-million dollar investment, is forced to close. Many women, the backbone of Kenya’s textile industry, will lose their jobs to thousands of workers. Growing into Kenya’s largest manufacturing employer, the clothing industry shrinks overnight and sends shock waves through the economy. Economic impacts extend beyond manufacturing. Logistics companies, cotton farmers, and small business suppliers relying on the Agoa pipeline will suffer catastrophic losses.
The ripple effect of Agoa’s expiration can also be felt in the United States. Retailers who have built supply chains around African textiles and apparel are faced with a sudden price surge and are forced to absorb higher costs or pass them on to American consumers. US companies relying on African produce such as tea, coffee and nuts should look for alternative, more expensive markets. When inflation remains an urgent concern in the US, cutting off Agoa will result in higher prices. Furthermore, without Agoa, the economy of Africa. It is currently valued at around $3.4 trillion in GDP. It appears to be a viable option along with other emerging markets such as Europe, the Middle East and Asia. However, the US remains a major market in the sector and has been developed over the past 25 years.
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It is important for the Kenyan government to strengthen its diplomatic efforts and work with other African countries to promote Agoa updates. Private sector leaders, manufacturers and exporters need to speak up and ensure that Agoa remains a priority in the global trade agenda.
Trade has always been about relationships. Just as our ancestors relied on barter to build trust and economic connections, today’s trade agreements need to be nurtured and protected. Agoa is more than just a trade framework. It is a symbol of economic partnership and a testament to what is possible when the state cooperates. Let’s not wait until the bridge collapses until we realize it is worth it.
The author is an Apparels Manufacturers and Exporters (EPZ) Sector Chair, a board member of the Kenya Manufacturers Association, and has access to info@kam.co.ke.
