Prior to the October election, the Tanzanian president is retreating from democracy.
Democracy appears to be in a bad state and worsening state in East Africa. Tanzanian President Samia Sloof Hassan’s political reforms have raised faint hope after continuing to authoritarian John Maghului in 2021, but she appears to be regressing now.
In response to the general retreat from democracy, Kenyan politician Martha Karua is a former member of parliament and ministers, and Lara Odinga’s running companions in the 2022 presidential election is leading a campaign against opposition restraint in the region.
Her Pan-African Progressive Leader Solidarity Network calls for an “immediate withdrawal of charges against Mr. Lis and all political prisoners.” This refers to Tundu Lis, the leader of Tanzania’s Chamacha Democracia na Maendeeo (Chadema) party, who was arrested and detained for treason in April. Chadema is promoting election reform ahead of the October general election under the slogan “No reform, No elections.”
Kahlua’s group describes the case of the squirrel as “a symbol of an increasing threat to democracy across Africa.” She has also joined the legal team defending Ugandan opposition leader Kiza Besigy and his allies Hajiji Obeid Luthal. Meanwhile, veteran Burundi opposition leader Agason Luwasa is on the sidelines as he will take part in next month’s election.
Bobi Wine, the Ugandan opposition leader who ran with President Yoweri Museveni in the last presidential election, posted this week about visiting his bodyguard, Eddie Mutwe, and other incarcerated party members in prison. Mutwe was accused of by an armed man last month. Wine said they were tortured and the chief of Muhuj Kainergaba’s army, son of Museveni, personally took part in the attack.
Apparently beyond the control of his father and others, Kainergaba has publicly boasted on social media that he has Mutwe in his basement. Kainerugaba regularly posts threats to Wine and his officials. This blatant aggression is particularly disturbing as it is widely believed that Museveni is grooming him as his successor.
Kenya was somewhat in unison, allowing Ugandan agents to acquiesce Besiji in Nairobi last December. Opposition activists have reported a series of such adductions across the region.
According to Freedom House, the eight East African community members are not fully democratic. The 2025 report ranked Kenya as partially free and the rest as not free. Tanzania was demoted from free in part last year. The average score for EAC members was 22.875 out of 100. This is partially below the free threshold of 36. The eight overall scores fell from 187 in 2024 to 183 in 2025.
While Kynergaba seems easier, Samia is rather enigmatic. After Nicodemus Minde, Nairobi’s Institute of Security Research, passed away in 2021, Samia wrote that after he took over Magufuli, Samia appears to have come to reverse his legacy. She proudly defended the “four Rs” of reconciliation, resilience, reform and reconstruction. ”
She ended the ban on Magufuli’s political gatherings, abolished his oppressive media laws, and then released Chadema’s leader Freeman Mbouve from prison. Mbowe spent eight months in prison on terrorist charges.
However, last year, Wheel began to fall out of her reform initiative. Chadema’s official Ally Kibao was accused and killed in September, while another Aisha Machano was brutally attacked in October. Hundreds of Chadema officials and supporters, including Mbowe and Lissu, were taken into custody before a planned rally.
The crackdown appeared to be related to the November 2024 local elections. Chadema raised concerns that they were not free and fair, primarily because voting management remained firmly in the hands of government officials rather than independent election commissions.
The proposal to challenge the election results in court has been ignored by the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM). So, as Minde told the ISS today, the electoral system remained “fully captured by the ruling party.” The CCM won local polls by landslides after most opposition candidates were banned.
And now her government has cracked down again by indicting Lis for exaggerated crimes of treason ahead of the national election in October, as Chadema threatened to boycott these elections as well, failing to reform elections.
This week, the court ordered the state to take Squirrel to court for his next appearance on May 19th. He has been on hunger strikes in protest of virtually being forced to appear in court. He advocates a habeas corpus to protect himself from possible harm in prisons.
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As CCM exposes squirrels to legal harassment, he and his party could effectively be removed from the October election, leading to opening the field to CCM.
But what’s unclear about Samia is why she reversed her reform course. Until recently, the general story was that she remained strong in CCM and not opposed to reforms from Maghului hardliners who feared Chadema’s victory in the October election.
However, Minde told the ISS today that, by removing Magufuli’s loyalists early on, “she relies on most Magufuli loyalists to strengthen the government ahead of the election.” She also states that “strengthened the strength by eliminating potential competition from within the CCM and now the squirrels are facing.”
If this is true, it suggests that Samia has finally become her own woman. Although not the way many people wanted.
Peter Fabricius, consultant at ISS Pretoria
