Zimbabwe, once welcomed with African bush boxes, is now tackling deep political and economic challenges. Recent efforts by President Emmerson Mnangagwa to reset ties with the US and reset the internal political rift that appears to be developing between Mnangagwa and Vice President Constantine Chiwenga have raised questions about Zimbabwe’s future. It is the dire economic situation that left many Zimbabweans poverty that exacerbates these political uncertainties. Given the many challenges facing Zimbabwe, the future landscape of Zimbabwe is an unknown territory.
Are you resetting or upsetting your diplomatic relationship?
In April, Mnangagwa announced that it would suspend tariffs on goods imported from the United States in order to develop positive ties with President Donald Trump’s administration. This is a major change in Zimbabwe’s diplomatic strategy. Historically, US-Zimbabwe relations have been tense and characterized by sanctions and political alienation. Given the trading nature of the Trump administration, Mnangagwa’s overture could lead to the thawing of relationships, particularly by opening up tools for economic support and investment in the mineral sector. Zimbabwe is reportedly located in 17 rare earth elements widely used in automobiles, electronics and military technology. The current dominance of China’s Zimbabwean mining industry could allow the US to access attractive prospects for the above minerals.
However, Mnangagwa’s overture to the US risks alienating allies of Zimbabwe’s traditional South African Development Community (SADC). The delicate balance of pursuing new diplomatic relations while maintaining regional solidarity is a key issue for the Mnangawa regime. There is also the risk of blowback from China. Trade between the US and Zimbabwe is negligible, reaching under $100 million a year, but China is one of Zimbabwe’s biggest trading partners, with exports of $1.3 billion last year. China has invested heavily in Zimbabwe’s critical infrastructure development over the past 20 years. China also offers tariff-free exports from Zimbabwe, but the Trump administration has not yet responded to the Olive branch of Mnangawa. Losing China’s support could be devastating due to Zimbabwe’s current economic situation.
Internal power struggle
The growing crack between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga adds another layer of complexity to Zimbabwe’s political dynamics. Following the coup that drove longtime President Robert Mugabe, Chiwenga, who played a pivotal role in the rise of Mnangagwa’s power, shows signs of incongruity with the current president. At the Zimbabwe African National Union-Popular Front (ZANU-PF) Party Conference held in December 2024, officials loyal to Chiwenga were blocked from attendance, and Mnangagwa’s loyalty was forced to seek constitutional amendments that would allow Mnangagwa to take power beyond the second period beyond 2028.
The rifts are threatening to destabilize Zanu-PF and undermine government unity. The struggle for power within the party could lead to rising political tensions and potential changes in leadership. The worst-case scenario is that the military, Zimbabwean ultimate power broker, could step in the same way as when they drove Mugabe out in 2017 and delve deeper into political turmoil.
Threats to local relations
Mnangagwa’s pivot towards improving relations with the US raised concerns about Zimbabwe’s position within the SADC. Regional organizations, the key Zimbabwe support system, may be seeing these suspicious overtures. For Zimbabwe, balancing international diplomacy and regional commitment is essential to maintaining influence and support within the SADC. The consequences of perceived betrayal or changes in loyalty could affect Zimbabwean economic aid, trade agreements, and regional solidarity. The damage had already been made, and Zimbabwe could find himself isolated if Trump rejected or ignored Mnangawa’s peace offering.
Zimbabwe market basket hole
Zimbabwe now faces a wide range of economic problems, from volatile currency to mass unemployment and poverty.
Zimbabwe’s economy is in turmoil, and currency instability is an important issue. The country’s dependence on multiple currencies, including the US dollar and South African rands, has not stabilized the economic environment. Hyperinflation and lack of confidence in local currency exacerbate the rapid changes in finance. The government’s attempts to introduce new currencies are met with skepticism as memory remains of past currencies.
The economic crisis has led to a surge in unemployment and widespread poverty. Many Zimbabweans are forced to fight for basic necessities, and the disparity between the wealthy elite and the poor has always been a point of conflict, and is now grand and growing throughout the canyon. When it comes to the economy, the agricultural sector was devastated by land reform and mismanagement, leading to food insecurity and reduced agricultural production.
Mnangagwa’s outreach to the US could open doors for economic aid and investment, and could alleviate some of Zimbabwe’s economic distress. However, this is a dangerous strategy and, if it fails, can further destabilize the vulnerable economy. Building trust with international investors and ensuring transparency in economic policy is an essential step for Zimbabwe at this point in attracting foreign investment and support.
What is the social meaning?
The economic crisis has had a serious impact on healthcare and education. Hospitals and clinics are underfunded and essential supplies are lacking, resulting in a decline in healthcare services provision. The education system faces major challenges, including insufficient funding, lack of teachers, and worsening infrastructure. These issues contribute to the ongoing cycle of poverty and limit opportunities for future generations.
As has happened in previous economic and political crises, Zimbabweans have been seeking better opportunities abroad. When skilled professionals leave the country, this brain drain further weakens economic and social services. This loss of human capital is an important issue Zimbabwe must address to rebuild.
What will the future hold?
Zimbabwe’s political future relies heavily on resolving internal power struggles within the ZANU-PF and maintaining a balanced diplomatic approach. If Mnangagwa can navigate these challenges well, there is a possibility of political stability. However, strengthening democratic institutions and promoting comprehensive governance is essential for a country to achieve long-term stability.
The economy will be even more difficult to recover. A comprehensive strategy to address currency stability, unemployment and poverty is needed. Engaging with international partners for financial aid and investment is extremely important, while ensuring transparency and accountability. Enabling the agricultural sector and promoting industrialization can provide sustainable economic growth and employment opportunities.
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It is essential to balance outreach to the US and maintain a strong SADC relationship for Zimbabwe’s future. Centuring regional alliances while pursuing broader international relations can provide Zimbabwe with a multifaceted approach to economic and political development. It is important to ensure diplomatic outreach to international partners without compromising Zimbabwe’s position in the SADC.
Social development and long-term economic stability require investment in healthcare and education. Zimbabwe must also address the root causes of migration and brain drainage by providing opportunities to improve living conditions and maintain skilled professionals in the country. Promoting social cohesion and unity is important to rebuild the country.
Zimbabwe is at a crossroads, and its future is shaped by complex political and economic dynamics. Mnangagwa’s overture to Trump, an internal rift with Chiwenga, and a disastrous financial situation poses great challenges. With strategic diplomatic efforts, comprehensive economic recovery plans and focused social development initiatives, Zimbabwe could sail through these disturbed waters and set sail towards a stable, rich future. The country’s resilience and determination are key to overcoming many of these obstacles and building a smooth path forward.
Charles A. Ray, a member of the Council and chairman of the Institute for Foreign Policy African Programme, served as US ambassador to the Kingdom of Cambodia and the Republic of Zimbabwe.
