Addis Ababa – For decades, the international community has rapidly maintained its unified Somali aspirations. But its vision – Harbor Noble – isn’t long. Somalia today is not a single functional country, but a fragmented territory made up of three distinct political entities: Somaliland, Pantoland and South/Central Somalia. Each region has governance structures, security equipment, and political trajectories.
Rather than continuing to pursue the outdated dream of centralized unity, this article proposes practical alternatives: three state solutions. This model does not advocate fragmentation for itself. It reflects the living reality of millions of Somalis and provides a sustainable pathway to peace, cooperation and local development.
The Somalia discrepancy is deeply rooted in history. It began with a flawed 1960 union between the Somali Land in England and Somali in Italy. This is a merger filled with inequality and imbalances. The northern region, which contributed an estimated 62% of national revenue, was given only 22% of its seats. Political alienation and authoritarian oppression under the Siad Barre administration further fostered tensions, particularly in the North.
These complaints sparked the civil war in 1988, which ultimately led to the collapse of Somali’s central government in 1991. Since then, the country has been operating as a de facto tripartite system and has not had any true unity.
Somaliland: The De facto state with a functional agency
Since declaring independence in 1991, Somaliland has become one of the most stable and democratic countries in Africa. Important indications of this progress include regular multi-party elections, a reliable justice system, no terrorist incident in 2024, and the management of its own currency (Somali Land Shilling), passports and military management.
Somaliland also meets all key state standards under international law. These include well-defined boundaries (formerly British guardian boundaries), a permanent population and a government that functions to maintain effective control. Nevertheless, Somaliland is not recognized by the international community – denies access to multilateral institutions, international financing, and diplomatic perceptions.
Pantland: Autonomous and proactive in security
Founded in 1998, Pantoland is widely considered an autonomous territory within Somalia, pursuing autonomy within the framework of the federal government rather than a complete departure. The region maintains some degree of political stability, while asserting privileges on natural resources and territorial boundaries.
In 2024, Puntland launched Operation Hilaac, a major military campaign targeting the Cal Miskaad Mountains ISIS and Al-Shabaab bases. Supported by US air support, the operation succeeded in disrupting the rebel network. Despite these achievements, Pantoland continues to clash with Mogadishu over federal forces and remains an essential partner in counterterrorism efforts in the Horn of Africa.
South/Central Somalia: Areas of Permanent Crisis
Despite years of international involvement and billions of aid, South/Central Somalia remains in conflict and vulnerable governance. In 2025, Al-Shabaab’s “Operation Ramadan” saw the group repeat at least 15 towns (including Baruad and Bakadwain) in Shovel and hiran areas.
Government and AU forces have been overgrown and underfunded, but extremists’ influence remains strong. However, civil society groups stick to efforts to provide basic services and justice, often filling in the void left by the state. The area needs more than temporary assistance. Internationally-led stabilization, building long-term capacity and institutional reform are needed.
Pragmatism against Romanticism
Maintaining the idea of Somali unification through centralization ignores the collapse of over 30 years. A better, peaceful path is to recognize Somaliland as an independent republic and honor its powerful democratic governance. Pantland as an autonomous country linked to the future Somali federation, much like Puerto Rico’s relationship with the United States. And South/Central Somalia as unsupervised trust will ensure time for peacebuilding and political reform.
Maintaining the idea of Somali unification through centralization ignores the collapse of over 30 years. ”
There is historical support for this approach. Successful divisions previously worked, including in 1993 the division into two independent Czechoslovakia provinces, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Eritrea independence from Ethiopia in the same year. and the internationally overseen separation of South Sudan in 2011. These examples show that state restructuring could be peaceful and internationally supported.
Challenges to be solved
Adopting a 3-state solution is not easy. The first challenge is the sentiment of the nationalist. Many still embrace the dream of a Somali nation. Second is international unwillingness, underpinned by concerns that recognition of new states could encourage separatism moves elsewhere. The third is legal and technical hurdles, such as splitting resources, setting borders, and protecting minority rights.
Still, these challenges are far less than the usual cost of continuing business, including ongoing instability, extremism, and human suffering. The managed transition, supported by the United Nations, African Union and regional partners, provides the structure necessary for a peaceful and lasting reorganization.
The international community should take several important steps to support peaceful transformation. First, it must acknowledge the political reality of earth. This means opening formal dialogue with Somaliland, Pantoland and South/Central Somalia as separate entities.
Second, there is a need to establish a legal mechanism for separation. This includes a support framework for peaceful departures. These include resource sharing agreements, border commissions and protection of minority groups.
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Third, investments should be tailored to the needs of each region. Somaliland focuses on infrastructure such as Belbera Port, digital governance and education. Pantland supports energy development and security services. In South/Central Somalia, prioritizes UN-led humanitarian and peacebuilding efforts. Finally, we will begin the UN council meeting in South/Central Somalia. This should be a time-limited mission aimed at stabilizing governance, overseeing elections, and helping to build strong local institutions.
Conclusion
Somalia is no longer a unified nation. It has become three different political entities. Somaliland is a functioning democracy, but still lacks international recognition. Pantlands are stable, autonomous regions that play an important role in local security and counterterrorism. South/Central Somalia is a territory that urgently needs international support and surveillance. It’s time for the international community to stop romanticizing the idea of united Somali and begin to support earthly reality. This is not a call for division, but a call for realism, dignity and lasting peace. As
Editor’s Note: Adam Dawd Ahmed, a horn of African political and security analysts in Hargeisa, Somaliland, specializes in geopolitics, counter-terrorism and democratization. He holds a Masters degree in International Relations.
