President Donald Trump has revived his distinctive “America First” economic doctrine since returning to the White House for his second term. The heart of this approach was bold tariff planning. A universal tariff of 10% has been proposed on all imports, a staggering 145% collection on Chinese products. Supporters argued that these measures would stimulate the American industry and reduce reliance on foreign manufacturing. However, the global response was one of the deep concerns, especially from the Global South, as such policies unlock supply chains, unlock rising costs and expose vulnerable economies to serious shocks.
With a major turn of events, recent discussions between Geneva between the US and China have led to an unexpected breakthrough. After escalating rhetoric and retaliatory tariffs over months, the record rate skyrocketed above 125% – both countries agreed to a gradual reduction in select tariffs aimed at stabilizing global markets and restoring some predictability of international trade. The broader structural issues remained unresolved, with both sides halting just before a full rollback, but the Geneva Agreement marked a temporary de-expansion that analysts hope to prevent a full-scale trade crisis.
President Trump described the move as a “strategic readjustment,” providing us with room to adjust businesses, while Chinese officials emphasized the mutual benefits of “balanced and fair” trade relations. The initial reduction (set to start within 60 days) is primarily targeting industrial products and critical supply chain components. This softening of Trump’s previously uncompromising stance suggests a rare convergence of interest in global economic stability.
The Geneva story was under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO), providing a faint glow of hope amid rising tensions. Although there was no binding agreement, both sides are committed to keeping diplomatic channels open and de-escalation through technical negotiations and sector-specific debate. China has expressed concern about the imbalanced nature of US tariffs and its global ripple effects, but the US has reiterated that the measures are essential to national economic security. The results may not have resulted in concrete policy changes, but marked a change in tone to pragmatism protected from conflict.
However, these arguments highlighted another unsettling reality. That is, alienation of developing countries in major trade negotiations. In particular, African countries remain on the sidelines despite being disproportionately affected by the economic volatility that such conflicts create. What’s even more troublesome is Africa’s absence from US economic diplomacy under Trump’s new administration. European, Asian and American leaders are prominently characterized at high-level debate, but Africa’s representation remains minimal. This is especially surprising given that Africa’s Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) (an important pillar of US African trade) expires less than four months. If AgoA expires without renewals or exchanges, it will seriously hit Africa’s exports and strip them of preferential market access.
Against this backdrop, African countries and the broader global South must rethink the architecture of trade relations. The answer is not to leave the US or one partner, but to broaden trade relations to increase resilience and reduce vulnerability to external shocks. As the US continues to turn inward, the Global South will have to turn more and more towards each other.
The contrast with other regions is impressive. Within the European Union, regional trade accounts for more than 50% of total trade, with more than 75% in countries such as Luxembourg and the Czech Republic. ASEAN maintains intra-regional trade at around 21.5% despite low integration. In comparison, intra-Africa trade remains at just 16%. This disparity reflects fundamental structural weaknesses. Africa makes far more deals with external partners than within its own boundaries, making it particularly vulnerable to global crises, tariff shocks and geopolitical tensions.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA), launched in 2021, offers significant advancements. If fully implemented, it could significantly increase in in African trade, support industrialization, and create a single continental market of goods and services. However, this requires infrastructure investment, regulatory harmony and a political will to dismantle non-tariff barriers.
China has already advanced initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), aiming to bridge Africa’s annual infrastructure gap. These partnerships come with unique challenges, but reflect the type of long-term, multilateral commitment that many African countries seek. Europe has also reevaluated the alliance and is expanding beyond traditional partners in response to tensions between the US and China. Geneva will only strengthen its urgency to engage more meaningfully with the global South through its partnership that prioritizes sustainable development, as well as global political manipulation.
Trump’s tariff-first strategy should serve as a wake-up call. Trade policies driven by nationalism and isolationism may seem attractive in the short term, but often cause global ripple effects, especially in export-dependent regions such as Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa. Tariffs may appear to strengthen domestic industries, but they act as taxes on consumption. This can increase costs for businesses and consumers and drive inflation.
Sign up for the AllAfrica newsletter for free
Get the latest African news
success!
Almost finished…
You need to check your email address.
Follow the instructions in the email you sent to complete the process.
error!
There was a problem processing the submission. Please try again later.
Furthermore, international trade is by no means one-way. Sweeping out US tariffs has already caused retaliation. The EU, China and other global authority are signaling or implementing measures. These speed spirals reflected the tragic trade war of the 1930s, deepening the Great Repression and suffocating global commerce. In today’s interconnected world, such scenarios are even more disruptive, especially for countries around the periphery of global trade.
Ultimately, Africa and other global tropical countries need to grab this moment to readjust. They must look for partners that deepen regional integration, expand intra-regional trade, and prioritize cooperation over conflict. The current crisis is both a warning and an opportunity. Building a more independent, diverse and resilient trade ecosystem can weather the great storm of competition.
The future of world trade is not determined solely in Washington or Beijing, but also in how Africa and its global Southern Partners decide to shape their own economic destiny.
The author is a journalist and communication consultant.
