If they are imposed, Trump’s “mutual” tariff snowstorms will hit Agoa’s beneficiaries more than most people.
Africa is hit by disasters one after another. Still caught up in the US institutions for cutting US international development funds, President Donald Trump had to digest the seemingly random and illogical massive trade tariffs.
These could have effectively killed Africa’s Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This gave the US market favorable and tax-free access for most exports from 32 eligible Sahara countries.
The 25-year-old program would have ended anyway when it came out in September for an update. But the enormous tariffs kicking in on April 9th will negate Asian interests, US officials told the ISS today – effectively created Agaia Nur and invalidation.
Later on Wednesday, he temporarily suspended tariff hikes for 90 days, up from 10% baseline tariffs and Chinese tariffs, after the market crashed due to Trump’s “custom tantrums.”
Few African countries use the benefits of Agoa fully, but they have helped South Africa, Lesotho, Madagascar, Eswatini and more. One of the abnormalities in Trump’s tariffs is that countries that benefit most from Agoa have been hit hardest as Agoa’s exports helped them achieve a trade surplus with the US. So they were hit with high “mutual” tariffs to balance trade.
The most extreme example of this was a small Lesotho slapped at the highest tariffs of 50% worldwide, followed by Madagascar (47%), Mauritius (40%) and South Africa (31%).
Lesotho exported US$237.3 million in goods to the United States in 2024. It is mainly textile under anna and diamonds. They only imported goods worth 2.8 million US dollars from the US, mainly because Lesotho imports almost all requirements from neighboring South Africa.
However, it generated a relatively large trade deficit, which led to Lesotho being slapped at 50% tariffs. Lesotho imposes zero or very few tariffs on US imports. Lesotho Trade Minister Moketi Sherrill said the tariff would cost 12,000 people and could close 11 factories.
Similarly, Madagascar exported US$733.2 million in 2024 to the US. Many of them were in textiles under Agoa, importing only US$53.4 million, resulting in a massive trade deficit. As a result, Madagascar was criticised with 47% tariffs. This will wipe out the textile industry with probably 60,000 jobs.
South Africa is likely to be hit hard too, with AGOA (as of 2023) likely to be wiped out by approximately US$356.7 billion, primarily automobile and agriculture annual exports. This will earn around 0.3% points from GDP, which only increased by 0.6% last year.
The evil logic of tariffs meant that some countries like Kenya fled at a minimum tariff of 10%.
The way to respond was probably a simpler decision than other countries like China and the European Union, retaliating with massive tariffs on US imports. Their route is negotiable as African countries have no US economic strength or the scale of imports to fight back.
Kenya sent a delegation to Washington on April 1, and South Africa was preparing to send it, but initially assessed the impact. Others were about to be appointed to appeal for the cancellation or reduction of tariffs. Some people are looking for alternative markets for exports and are planning to buy more US goods to balance trade.
Shelile said Lesotho is talking to our wheat producers about purchasing products and is considering offering companies the shares to propose building more generators. Madagascar’s Foreign Ministry said it has already spoken to US authorities.
Zimbabwean President Emerson Mnangagwa – despite being under US sanctions for human rights abuses – has announced markedly that it has suspended tariffs on US goods to promote the expansion of US imports in Zimbabwean markets.
Trump slapped 18% tariffs on Zimbabwe, which had only traded US$111.6 million in 2024, and in 2024 the US imported US$67.8 million worth of ferroalloys, tobacco and sugar while exporting US$43.8 million worth of tractors and other goods.
Some African countries were able to adjust their trade policies after accusing the US of “unfair trade practices.” It was cited for years of import bans on Nigeria’s 25 product categories, a 50% tariff in Kenya, and what US trade representatives called “burdening regulatory requirements” regarding US corn imports. The South African 30% tariff was partly attributable to unfairly high tariffs on US poultry and pork imports.
There are some indications of a regulated response from Africa. Shelley confirmed that even after Trump’s turnaround, the South African Customs Union trade ministers will meet early next week to try and navigate the road “from this quagmire.” The Madagascar government has begun consulting other African countries to coordinate common ground.
The full meaning of Trump’s tariff tantrum remains dark, especially after his Wednesday flip-flop. Has he retracted them “tentatively” just to save the face, or will they rove in three months? And what does this mean for Agoa?
Like most analysts, Manchester Trade President Stephen Lande said, “Agoa is dying for the long term. The problem is, whether it is expanded by any administrative ordinance or by Congress for a short period of time, will allow more trading approaches to be implemented.
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“It would be bad to create a void with Agoa Ending and its alternative policy. The only winner is China. Perhaps an alternative policy could be agreed to within a 90-day grace period.”
But Eckart Naumann, an associate at the Trade Law Centre, believes that even if “mutual” tariffs return, all countries may be able to enjoy relative benefits over others, as they face extra tariffs.
However, if the high tariffs imposed on clothing producers such as Lesotho, Madagascar, and Mauritius are reimposed, they are at a major disadvantage for countries like Kenya, which have received a baseline tariff of 10%.
Naumann points out that the US has exempt some products from some products, primarily minerals and energy, and some of these are important to South Africa, so “Agoa’s advantage continues there.”
Nevertheless, he said, “The political environment for the update of Adya is very poor now, but I believe this can change once the dust settles. He suggests that African countries will develop stronger trade alliances with trustworthy partners within rules-based trading systems.
With the reprieve, African countries have time to adjust their response to the possibility of a revival of tariffs in 90 days. It also needs to accelerate the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement, which provides an alternative to the US market.
Peter Fabricius, consultant at ISS Pretoria
