As the 2027 election approaches, three epic bargains will determine the president’s political future.
Almost three years after his presidency, Kenya’s President William Root faces headwinds that threaten to derail his administration. The country is tackling economic, political and social pressures.
The complaints first sparked by protests against the 2024 financial bill resurfaced amid widespread distrust and rage over the new social health insurance. Meanwhile, former vice president Rigathi Gachagua’s bluff each reconstructed the political dynamics within the coalition that seized Ruto into power.
Outside, the unpredictability of reducing foreign aid and the policy shift of US (US) President Donald Trump poses several risks. Together, these factors undermined international and national confidence in Kenya’s trajectory.
In contrast, the route is to balance the demands of international creditors and partners, manage fluid domestic political alliances, and address the concerns of Kenyan citizens.
Kenya enjoyed privileged ties with the United States under the Joe Biden administration, and Rut was called Biden’s “blue-eyed boy.” Nairobi’s strategic location and geopolitical importance, coupled with a common climate and safety concern, strengthened relations between the two countries.
This was highlighted by a series of prominent diplomatic visits, including last year’s visit to the White House. This was also highlighted by the first visit by African leaders since 2008 and the visits of Antony Blinken and Jill Biden to Kenya between 2021 and 2024.
Two important developments further demonstrated Kenya’s geopolitical importance to Washington. One was the designation as an ally of major non-North Atlantic treaty organizations in 2024, increasing its role in regional and international security. The second was the deployment of 1,000 Kenyan police officers to combat gang violence in Haiti. Both are products of strengthening the tie in Kenya and US.
But Trump’s return to power poses a major challenge for Kenya. It remains to be seen whether Ruto will be able to navigate this shift and build bridges to protect the country’s economy. Two major concerns are potential foreign aid reductions and a reversal of the climate agenda, supporting many of the bilateral relations under Biden.
Kenya is particularly vulnerable in both ways. An estimated 50,000 jobs are at risk in the healthcare sector alone, with experts warning of an escalating crisis in access to health services and a potential brain drain. Similarly, aggressive cuts to climate financing threaten key clean energy initiatives and hinder Kenya’s ability to respond to climate-related disasters.
The key question is whether Root can find a way to Trump given his historical intimacy with Biden, or whether Trump will hold it against him, just as Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky.
Certifying the pending strategic trade and investment partnership that was launched during Trump’s first term could be a clear starting point. Ruto also has to create and clarify a compelling value proposition as to why Kenya should retain its favourite position under the new administration.
Ruto’s diplomatic challenges are covered by domestic dissatisfaction and the need to manage stability and his own political survival. Since protesting against the 2024 financial bill and related taxes in June/July 2024, President Hustler has remained unpopular with local residents, especially young people.
Kenya’s so-called Gen-Z movement is ready to mobilize against politicians who believe they cannot address a variety of socioeconomic challenges. These include high unemployment rates, shortcomings in governance, and a flawed national health system. These taxes are touted as a way to alleviate Kenya’s disastrous financial position and unsustainable debt in an effort to appease both the International Monetary Fund and its creditors and avoid default.
Although seemingly cautious, attempts to place international financial institutions on the route and correct Kenya’s financial shortcomings have been increasingly rejected by the population. This is in the general perception that he has not dealt with wasted spending, inflated pay and enduring corruption while putting too much pressure on Kenyans.
Ruto’s back appears to be against the wall, which forces him to do another “handshake deal” that has become synonymous with Kenyan politics. In the wake of last year’s Gen-Z protest, Ruto brought in members of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). This led to Odinga’s fourth “handshake,” which reached the agreement on March 7th, forming a widespread government.
Ruto hopes that Odinga and his increased government inclusion in the government will strengthen the alliance, but hopes that Odinga’s large base will be translated into some kind of support before the 2027 poll.
The broader government likewise hopes to bring politicians from previously excluded groups to secure their support. To this end, securing Odinga’s support prevents him from matching himself with the exiled gachagua, who is simmering in the Kenya Mountains region in the rich Mount Mount region, seeking a return to politics.
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Incidentally, Gachagua, like the former vice president, formed his own alliance with Odinga running buddy Martha Karua, who was used to secure the votes for Mount Kenya during the 2022 election.
As a presentation of the 2025 financial bill and anniversary of last year’s unrest approach, the route should soothe locals, meet the expectations of uneasy creditors, and ensure that Kenya’s strong sponsorship network continues to benefit.
Odinga’s trading appears to provide a buffer, but Ruto remains vulnerable. His political survival will depend on his actions over the coming months, and the 2025 fiscal bill could potentially determine his future.
The route should prioritize public demands over creditor expectations. However, failing to adequately address creditor concerns presents its own risk from the medium over the long term, the economy and even the route.
Even if Rat has taken this delicate balance, Kenya’s precedent suggests that anything can be done ahead of the 2027 election.
Ronak Gopaldas, ISS Consultant and Director of Signal Risk
Daniel Van Darren, risk analyst in signal risk countries
