” frameBorder=”0″ class=”dcr-ivsjvk”>
There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in Guardian Australia’s modelling. The model averages the polls over the time they are in the field and factors in sample sizes, previous results and the “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster.
Share
Updated at 16.10 EDT
\n”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in Guardian Australia’s modelling. The model averages the polls over the time they are in the field and factors in sample sizes, previous results and the “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster.
“,”elementId”:”302b4019-1979-4283-9204-f6def601d865″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:true,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1743709812000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”15.50 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1743711001000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”16.10 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1743710135000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”15.55 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”15.55″,”title”:”YouGov poll says Dutton’s approval lowest since becoming opposition leader”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Elias Visontay”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2020/11/24/Elias_Visontay.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=d56a92b126eda696addf6e7e8800ae0b”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2020/11/24/Elias_Visontay.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cc11eb59770e90be82567535dbd26e19″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Thu 3 Apr 2025 18.47 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Thu 3 Apr 2025 15.49 EDT”},{“id”:”67eee5c38f08f7ab2f00cff7″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the best overnight stories and then Krishani Dhanji will be your guide.
“,”elementId”:”54d82456-5e57-475a-87e9-1f879fd02134″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Stock markets in Europe and the US have seen heavy losses after yesterday’s announcement by Donald Trump of tariffs on US trading partners. Anthony Albanese’s government is still considering its response but has unveiled $1bn in loans to help Australian exporters after the tariff hit. We have more coming up.
“,”elementId”:”c8531f62-436d-40a5-bf92-134bddb3886c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The US president’s economic warfare has made him politically toxic with Australian voters. Although the situation is fraught with difficulties for Albanese – will it crash our economy? – there could be political benefits because Peter Dutton has in the past tried to align himself with Trumpist themes such as being “strong” on defence and immigration. Our political writers have their analysis, and in the blog in a minute we’ll look at a new poll showing that Dutton is losing popularity with voters.
“,”elementId”:”a98fb2f3-1bc6-424c-933c-25900edffa4f”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1743709770000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”15.49 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1743710595000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”16.03 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1743709770000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”15.49 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”15.49″,”title”:”Welcome”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Thu 3 Apr 2025 18.47 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Thu 3 Apr 2025 15.49 EDT”}],”filterKeyEvents”:false,”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”,”absoluteServerTimes”:false,”renderingTarget”:”Web”}”>
Key events
Show key events only
Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature
Peter Dutton is still refusing to release his party’s modelling for the cost impact of its gas plan.
Again he laughs off a reporter’s question saying “it’s almost here” and that “anticipation is building up”.
Just be patient. Be patient. And the anticipation is building up. The message is that our – our policy, our energy policy, will over the long run be much cheaper than Labor’s. That’s obvious…
We want to bring the cost of everything down which we can do if we have a gas policy which is for Australians… you’ll hear more of that shortly.
Asked as well why it’s taken Dutton so long to host a press conference at a petrol station after the fuel excise announcement… Dutton says he’s been speaking about te policy from budget night, and says it’s a “game changer”.
Share
A bit of a growing conundrum for the budget is the decreasing tobacco excise, due to a burgeoning black market.
How would the Liberals deal with it?
Dutton says smoking rates should continue to be reduced, but pins the blame on the militant construction union, the CFMEU, which is currently under administration, and promises to outlaw bikie gangs.
We wouldn’t allow the bikies who are in lock-step with the CFMEU to continue to run the illegal illicit tobacco market. We would clamp down and we would make sure that as we did in Government, the outlaw motorcycle gangs know that they don’t have a place in our society.
Share
Onto Trump and tariffs, Dutton says there are opportunities and Albanese has “missed every one”.
Dutton says there’s more opportunity in the relationship and the defence partnership. He mentions Aukus pillar two, and the ability to purchase more.
There’s opportunity there for us to purchase more from our allies including the United States, and for them to purchase more from us… That’s why I think there’s a mutual interest to be found in the discussion with the United States…
I made the point yesterday about the surface fleet. When you are looking at what the Japanese are doing with the Americans, they’re able to provide sustainment of their fleet because the Americans can’t keep up with – with their service fleet servicing.
Dutton’s argument that the government has missed opportunities has been disputed by Labor who say that have had ongoing discussions with the administration and tried to make a deal – including on critical minerals.
Share
Dutton says fuel excise cut is part of what he offers small businesses
On to questions. Dutton is asked about his concession yesterday that the Liberals wouldn’t repeal the “same job same pay” legislation that has been introduced under Labor.
He’s asked if he’s disappointing businesses and moving away from more traditional Liberal values. Dutton says “we’re the party of making sure we can manage the economy effectively”:
I want to make sure that small businesses and bigger businesses but pensioners and families as well can get a 25 cent a litre cut in the fuel price that they pay at the bowser every time they fuel up. And that’s what we’re offering at this election.
Share
Updated at 18.39 EDT
Dutton continues to cast election as a competition over the economy
Dutton is standing up with Bridget McKenzie and the shadow minister for Western Sydney, Melissa McIntosh.
Dutton’s focused on the cost of living in this area and again pinning the election as a choice on who can “better manage our economy”.
It’s hard to find an extra 30% for your grocery bills under Anthony Albanese, it’s harder to find 34% more for your gas which is the cost it’s gone up by under Anthony Albanese. Electricity is up by 32%. Rents are obviously up by almost 20%. It’s a really tough time for Australians.
After a visit to a petrol station, Dutton’s plugging the Coalition’s proposal to cut the fuel excise.
Share
Updated at 18.37 EDT
Josh Butler
Scramble as Dutton moves to pay for petrol – but forgets his wallet
Dutton is meeting workers and customers at a petrol station in Parramatta. He helps a man filling up a Nissan Navara ute, talking up the Coalition’s plan to halve the fuel excise.
The man puts about 40 litres into his tank. Regular unleaded fuel at this station is 171.9 cents per litre. Under Dutton’s policy the man would have saved about $2.
The Liberal leader heads into the shop to pay for the man’s petrol …. but there’s an awkward moment where Dutton doesn’t have his wallet on him, and a scramble as his staff call back to their car “where’s the bosses’ phone?”
The phone is retrieved, and Dutton shells out $68 for the petrol bill.
We’re about to hold a press conference.
Share
Updated at 18.31 EDT
Jason Clare says Dutton ‘pretending he’s tough’ over US tariffs
Jason Clare ripped into Peter Dutton’s claims that he could have done better on the tariffs this morning.
Clare was alongside deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley on a panel on Sunrise.
Clare says Dutton is “pretending he’s tough” but would “more likely write a book on the ‘Art of the Kneel’.
We’ve all got mates who are gibbers, saying I could’ve done a better job, I could’ve done something different. But they’re not running to be the prime minister of Australia …
We’re not going to bend the knee. We’re not going to bend the knee to the States.
Clare points out that no country – not Japan nor the UK whose leaders visited the US – were able to get out of the tariffs.
Meanwhile, Ley says the tariffs are a “real blow” to exporters and that, “there has been a clear failure of leadership here. Anthony Albanese has not done everything that he could possibly do”.
Share
Updated at 18.30 EDT
Josh Butler
Dutton visits Parramatta petrol station
Peter Dutton is in the Sydney seat of Parramatta this morning, visiting a petrol station for the first time in his campaign so far.
It’s surprising it’s taken so long for us to visit one of these, considering that his central cost of living policy is a halving of the fuel excise for car owners.
He is here with the local candidate, Katie Mullens. Labor holds this seat on a 4% margin.
We will do a press conference here before Dutton goes to a community forum in Western Sydney.
Share
Updated at 18.31 EDT
Dan Jervis-Bardy
PM and Labor team drop in on Cabramatta public school
After a few local radio spots, Anthony Albanese is starting his campaigning on Friday with a visit to Cabramatta public school in the electorate of Fowler.
Independent Dai Le holds Fowler on a 1.8% margin after her 2022 defeat of former Labor frontbencher Kristina Keneally, who was parachuted into the western Sydney seat from the northern beaches.
Cabramatta public school just happens to be where the now education minister, Jason Clare, studied many moons ago.
Albanese, Clare and Labor’s candidate for Fowler, Tu Le, will meet with the education minister’s former grade one teacher, Cathy Fry.
Anthony Albanese lifts up a kid as he visits Cabramatta public school. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAPShare
Updated at 18.18 EDT
Albanese on US partnership: you can have differences without throwing the baby with the bathwater
Albanese is asked whether the US is still a reliable partner following the tariffs, and what the ongoing value of the Anzus partnership is.
On the later point, Albanese says it’s about maintaining national security.
Well, it is about our national security. And the defence relationship with the United States is our most important one. So you can have differences without throwing the baby out with the bathwater, if you like. You need to have a considered, mature, sober response to what is, I think, a very unwise decision, and not the act of a friend, the decision that President Trump announced yesterday. Of course, there is no country in the world that got a better deal than Australia.
Albanese, like Farrell earlier, takes a swipe at Dutton suggesting Australia could use defence as a negotiating tool to scrap the tariffs.
You don’t use defence as a negotiating tool, which was something that Peter Dutton, I think, a very recklessly suggested yesterday. Our defence is something that we look to our national interest in. It’s not something that you just make a flippant remark like that.
Share
Updated at 18.11 EDT
PM says Western Sydney funding for roads and health will attract high-value businesses
Anthony Albanese is selling his pitch to Western Sydney, with money for health facilities and roads.
On ABC Radio Sydney, Albanese says the upgrades will help attract “high-value businesses” to the area and make the area more attractive for families.
We also are upgrading major roads in the area, making it easier for people to get to and from work and get around Western Sydney.
Western Sydney Airport has to be seen not just as a runway, but as an aerotropolis, something that will attract high value businesses to Western Sydney, creating jobs, and for the first time, making sure that people don’t look when they think about Sydney, don’t look towards the harbour and towards the CBD.
Albanese also pitches the government’s announcements for small businesses (extending the $20,000 instant asset write-off) and on health and bulk-billing that the government says will support households across the region.
Share
Updated at 18.06 EDT
Don Farrell: ‘I’m not scared of President Trump’
The trade minister Don Farrell is “not scared” of Donald Trump as he continues to engage with his diplomatic counterparts to reverse the 10% tariffs announced yesterday.
Back in 2017, Anthony Albanese, then a shadow cabinet minister, said Trump “scares the shit out of me”, during the first Trump administration.
The line resurfaced more recently, and has been put to the PM having to deal with Trump mark two. Farrell, spoke to Sky News this morning, and says Trump doesn’t scare the government as it finds a pathway to respond to the tariffs.
I’m not scared of President Trump… My job as trade minister is to represent the best interests of Australia, to get these tariffs removed, to negotiate.
We’ve got the track record on the on the board for negotiations that [brought] $20bn back from China. We’ve negotiated new free trade agreements with India, with the United Kingdom, with the United Arab Emirates. Next Tuesday night, I’m talking with my European counterpart.
I understand that the world has changed. We need to find if we [have] to sell less product into the United States, we need to find new markets.
Share
Updated at 18.02 EDT
Albanese on his accidental fall: ‘What’s important isn’t how you go down, it’s how you get up’
Anthony Albanese has announced Labor will extend the small business asset write off for another year to keep it at $20,000.
Both camps are in Western Sydney today vying for voters that will help make or break the election results.
Albanese is on Triple M Sydney and says he’s also announcing $220m to upgrade roads in Rouse Hill and $120m for maternity services in the same area.
There’s a lot of bubbies being born in Western Sydney, and we want to make sure that they can go somewhere locally.
Albanese is also asked about that fall in the Hunter Valley when he tripped off stage yesterday. Albanese brushes it off with a laugh.
I fell for the Hunter Valley many, many years ago. This time it was a bit literal. I stepped back and there was no stage… what’s important isn’t how you go down. It’s how you get up.
The PM takes a tumble yesterday in the Hunter Valley. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAPShare
Updated at 18.19 EDT
Dutton continues to claim US tariff exemptions ‘achievable’
Earlier this morning Peter Dutton spoke to Sunrise (on tariffs – no surprises there).
Dutton insists it’s “achievable” to seal a deal with the US to scrap the 10% tariffs announced yesterday.
The Coalition has pushed hard attacking Labor and the prime minister for not getting a third phone call with Trump. Dutton said on Sunrise, “The ambassador can’t get into the West Wing, it shows had we done the work beforehand, I think there was a deal to be struck”.
He says defence and critical minerals are where a deal is to be made.
There’s an enormous opportunity of value-add for us so I think there is a big play here for our industry and the Americans see value in that, because they want assurances and certainty in their supply chain in the development of their weapons and that’s why they need our critical minerals and we can be a trusted partner.
All of this conversation should’ve been taking place over the last three, four, five months.
The government has insisted they have been engaged with the US administration from day dot and Australian officials and diplomats have been constantly communicating with their counterparts.
Peter Dutton on the campaign trail this Wednesday. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAPShare
Updated at 17.50 EDT
How can the Coalition say it will defy an ICC warrant without leaving the court?
The Coalition has said it would welcome Benjamin Netanyahu to Australia, despite Australia being a signatory of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has put out an arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister.
In 2002, when the John Howard government ratified the Rome Statute of the ICC, he baked into the legislation something of a carve out.
The legislation says the attorney general must not act on an ICC request to arrest or surrender a person “unless the attorney general has, in his or her absolute discretion, signed a certificate that it is appropriate to do so”.
The discretion is not limited to Australian citizens.
In June 2024 when two other Israeli officials were issued arrest warrants, before Netanyahu, Attorney-Generals Department officials said that while ICC member states had “a general obligation to cooperate fully with the court and prosecutions”, they confirmed Australia’s legislation “provides for a discretion”.
You can read more about that here:
Over in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has announced his country will leave the ICC ahead of Netanyahu visiting. The withdrawal bill is likely to pass easily as Orban’s right-wing party has a majority the parliament.
Share
Updated at 17.30 EDT
Shadow minister says ICC ‘exceeded its jurisdiction’ regarding Israeli PM
Sally Sara asks about Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu’s declaration to dissect the Gaza strip, and whether the Coalition would support that. Coleman doesn’t address the question, but says the loss of life in the area has been “tragic” and calls for Hamas to release all Israeli hostages.
The situation in Gaza is tragic. The loss of innocent life is a awful thing, and the as you know, the conflict commenced with Hamas’ mass murder of more than 1,000 Israelis.
Sara pushes him on Dutton’s previous comments that Donald Trump is “a man of big ideas” on Gaza.
Look, we obviously disagree with numerous things that the President has said in relation to Gaza. What we want to see is a two state solution … but obviously Sally, we’re a long way away from a two state solution when we have a terrorist organisation controlling Gaza and being involved in mass killings.
Coleman also confirms that Netanyahu would not be arrested in Australia and he believes the International Criminal Court “exceeded its jurisdiction in relation to Mr Netanyahu”.
Share
Updated at 17.14 EDT
Opposition continues to say it could have gotten a better deal on tariffs
The opposition is digging in, saying it could have achieved a better outcome on the tariffs announced yesterday (that no country was exempt from, and most countries had higher tariffs).
The shadow foreign minister, David Coleman, has followed Husic on RN Breakfast and says Anthony Albanese should have visited the US to speak with Trump in person.
Sally Sara: You can’t make a visit like that unless [the US] invite it?
Coleman: The prime minister didn’t go, didn’t seek the opportunity to go, and we would. And Peter Dutton has said it would be the first…
Sara: You can’t force the president to invite the prime minister.
Coleman: Well, Peter said the first visit he would make as leader of the country as prime minister is the United States.
Coleman repeats Dutton’s lines yesterday that the government should leverage the defence relationship with the US and increase defence spending to do that. Dutton – in his budget reply speech – foreshadowed the Coalition would announce an increase in the defence budget during the election campaign.
Share
Updated at 17.00 EDT
Husic says preventing ‘cut-price’ products being dumped in Australia is necessary
Yesterday the government announced $5m in funding to the anti-dumping commission – to stop low-cost exports being shipped into Australia – as part of its five-point response plan to the US tariffs.
Husic says the money will help the commission stop exports from overseas coming into Australia and undermining Australian industry,
My big concern has been in a period of global trade disruption, products that might have been sitting on vessels going over to markets that have now imposed tariffs may reconsider where they ship those products and to try and get them off vessels.
If they’re thinking that they’ll have a cut-price mentality that brings them lower-than-production cost[s] and results in dumping, we’ve got to be ready for it.
Having dumped product[s] in Australia at this point in time just is the worst thing.
Husic emphasises that free and open trade is good, and a key principle of Australia’s economy, but this global uncertainty shouldn’t create an environment where “cut-price” or low-cost product makes its way to Australia.
That’s what our government is doing to make sure we’re protected and we’ve got free and fair trade.
Share
Updated at 16.54 EDT
Husic say US’s Liberation Day a ‘self-imposed inflation day’
The tariff reaction continues, and the focus is on critical minerals and what more Australia can do to leverage our vast supplies of the resource.
The industry minister, Ed Husic, tells ABC RN breakfast the government is still working through the details and speaking with their US counterparts following yesterday’s announcement.
The official statement said certain minerals would be exempt from tariffs, but Husic can’t specify exactly what those minerals might be. He says:
A big focus [from] our government has been to strengthen our economic resilience, to help us weather events like the US’s self-imposed inflation day, I know they’re calling it Liberation Day, is really just about jacking up their own inflation. We have highly sought-after, in-demand [products] because we’re a quality producer across a range of areas … we want to continue making that high-quality product.
Ed Husic in 2024. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAPShare
Updated at 17.24 EDT
1 of 2NextOldestOldestExplore more on these topics
© 2025 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. (dcr)
