The challenge is to translate the country’s rich mineral resources and promising economy into stability and development.
At 36, Burkina Faso captain Ibrahim Traore is the youngest president in the world – in stark contrast to the average African leader, 63. He took office in September 2022 after overthrowing Lieutenant Colonel Paul Henridamiba, who ousted former President Rockcabole earlier that year.
The foundation of the country’s coup regime is full of rocks. Last week, the military government survived another obvious attempt at coup. One of several since Traoré came to power.
In his inauguration statement, Traoré said Burkina Faso is facing an emergency, citing the crisis in security, defense, healthcare, social action and infrastructure. He pledged to fight terrorism and adhere to a transition timetable agreed with the economic community of West African States (ECOWAS) aimed at restoring democratic control by July 1, 2024.
However, Burkina Faso later retreated from Ekowas and instead formed an alliance between the Sahel and Mali and Niger – the countries are also run by the post-Kupen regime. Under Burkina Faso’s new migration plan, Traoré could remain in his position until at least 2029.
His popularity has skyrocketed since his ascension to power. At the inauguration of President John Mahama in Ghana on January 7th, Traore received the most applause from all 21 African heads of states. This not only showed his popularity, but also the tendency tolerance towards Africa’s military domination, particularly among young people.
Afrobarometer reports that almost two-thirds of Burkinabe believe the Army should intervene when leaders abuse their power. Similarly, 66% have accepted military rules since 24% in 2012. The fact that the investigation was conducted when the country was under military regulations portrays the general acceptance of the administration.
However, Traoré’s popularity surpasses acceptance of military rule. He embarked on radical reforms that resonated with many Burkinabes. These include reversing the increase in the salary of his predecessor while he remains in the military captain’s income.
As part of an effort to acquire ownership of mineral resources, Traoré nationalised two gold mines and stopped exporting unslearned gold exports to Europe.
Other important achievements include the establishment of a National Support Centre for the Processing of National Artisan Cotton, the construction of a new airport, and considerable agricultural investment.
These are noble attempts to industrialize Burkina Faso, but the country should not fall into the usual traps of normal inefficiency, corruption and improper management that characterize most African state-owned enterprises.
Furthermore, Traoré rejects financial support from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, claiming that the country can develop without Western loans and conditions. For some, this is a demonstration of Africans dealing with their problems. For young people, the traore administration is an opportunity to show what young people can achieve. But for most ordinary Burkinabes, the priority is simply to improve daily living conditions.
At the time of increased global uncertainty and reduced international aid, Africa must strive to independence and control its resources. Like many African countries, Burkina Faso is blessed with natural resources and can change the lives of its citizens if properly managed.
The country has mineral resources and produces a significant amount of gold, zinc, copper, manganese, phosphates and limestone. There are also diamond, bauxite, nickel and vanadium reserves, most of which are largely unexplained.
The country is profiting. Gross domestic product (GDP) (market exchange rate) rose from US$3.2 billion in 1990 to US$18.3 billion in 2023, with extreme poverty falling from 83% in the same period to 27.7%. However, important issues remain.
According to the 2023/2024 Human Development Report, Burkina Faso is classified as low in human development and ranks 185th out of 193 countries. The 2024 Sustainable Development Goals Index ranks 149th out of 167 countries, and the Multidimensional Poverty Index shows that 64.5% of the population is multidimensionally poor.
But the economy has big promises. Recent research by the Security Institute’s African Futures and Innovation Team shows that Burkina Faso’s economy could grow at an average of 8% between 2025 and 2043.
This translates the additional GDP per capita to an additional GDP of 1,120 USD above the usual forecast, reducing income poverty to just 2.6% of the population. This means that by 2043, 2.4 million Burkinabes could be free from poverty.
This study identified governance reform as important to unlocking the development potential of countries. Indeed, good governance has raised GDP per capita by an extra USD 240, surpassing the usual forecast of USD 240, lifting 500,000 extra Burkinabe out of extreme poverty.
For this reason, Traoret must lead the country to overcome political instability, violent extremism and weak institutions. Institutional and structural reforms are needed to strengthen security, accountability, public sector efficiency and inclusion in governance.
The immediate priority has been to address terrorism, resulting in the loss of about 40% of the country’s territory, impairing the state’s authority and ability to provide public services. The UN Refugee Agency estimates that more than 2 million people have been displaced internally, and that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance increased by 35% between 2022 and 2023.
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Next, we will build strong institutions, strengthen existing institutions, improve public sector efficiency and combat corruption. Local governments need to strengthen their resources and capabilities to implement development programs tailored to the needs of their communities.
In the medium term, countries must move to constitutional rules to ensure the political stability and legitimacy needed to promote economic growth. This will increase investors’ trust and will allow Burkina Faso to attract the foreign direct investment needed to develop it. The African Union, civil society organizations and development partners need to support the 60-month transition plan to ensure a smooth transition to democracy.
This is not the first time such a charismatic figure has emerged in a political scene in Africa. Many innovative leaders began the same way, but later deviated from the course as they stuck to power. In Ghana, 32-year-old Jerry Rawlings, known as “Junior Yes,” emerged in a bloody revolution in the late 1979 to fight corruption and disinfect the country’s political system. However, after 19 years of power, his legacy was mixed.
A young, strong, charismatic leader, Burkina Faso has the opportunity to properly govern and achieve developmental aspirations. This may be a lasting legacy for Traoré’s regime.
This article was first published on Africa, the ISS’s African Futures and Innovation Program blog.
Enoch Randy Eikins, Researcher, Africa’s Future and Innovation, ISS
