Stephen Rosenberg
BBC Russia Editor
Reuters
Russia has recently stepped up its attacks even with diplomatic steps to peace picking up the pace
Last month, the Trump administration proposed the idea for a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire.
Ukraine agreed. Russia did not. Rather, I created a long list of conditions.
The Kremlin has decided not to spend 30 days, but to spend 30 hours. On Saturday, President Vladimir Putin announced a one-sided Easter truce in Ukraine until late Sunday night in Moscow.
He said he was acting from “humanitarian” considerations.
Such claims have been met with skepticism in Ukraine, more than three years after the war against the Russian country.
On social media Sunday morning, Ukrainian President Volodymiazelensky said, “The Russian army is trying to create a general impression of a ceasefire, but in some regions, they continue to make isolated attempts to advance and inflict Ukraine’s losses.”
The Russian Ministry of Defense took a different view.
In a statement, he said, “From the Moscow period on April 19th, from all Russian troops in the zone of special military operations[RussianUkrainianinvasionterm”theyhavestrictlyadheredtotheceasefireregimeandprotecteditscurrentposition”[Russia’ssternfortheinvasionofUkraine”from18:00Moscowtimeon19Aprilhavestrictlyadheredtotheceasefireregimeandheldtheircurrentpositions”[ロシアのウクライナの侵略の任期」から4月19日のモスクワ時代からは、停戦政権を厳守し、現在の地位を守った」と述べた。[Russia’stermfortheinvasionofUkraine”from18:00Moscowtimeon19Aprilhavestrictlyadheredtotheceasefireregimeandheldtheircurrentpositions”
Russian troops also accused Ukraine of violating the ceasefire.
Is the Easter ceasefire in Russia simply a PR for Vladimir Putin?
Or does it represent a real step towards ending the war?
Skepticism is that the 30-hour truce is not about promoting peace, but about maintaining a good relationship with the Trump White House. Since Donald Trump returned to his oval office, Putin has been busy trying to repair his relationship with Washington, paving the way for a new era of cooperation.
However, recent public comments by American officials (including Trump himself) suggest that the US administration is increasingly panicking at Ukraine’s lack of progress. Trump threatened to leave his attempts to mediate a peace deal if there is no chance of an agreement.
By announcing a one-sided ceasefire, the Kremlin can argue, albeit briefly, that it is Russia, not Ukraine, that it is the one committed to peace. Moscow has already denounced Kiev for ceasefire violations and continued fighting.
Please note that this short ceasefire was declared in a very short notice. Saturday’s announcement will not give either the Russian or Ukraine time to fully prepare.
However, there are also more optimistic views.
The Kremlin’s “Easter Armistice” was a surprise. But it didn’t come out of nowhere.
Over the past few weeks there has been a fierce international diplomacy seeking to end the battle.
Trump envoy Steve Witkov met Putin three times in two months. Kremlin leader envoy Kiril Dmitriev recently flew to Washington.
A few days ago, Mr. Witkov and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were in Paris for consultations between President Emmanuel Macron and Ukraine. A delegation from Ukraine was there too.
Are there any unusual opportunities for peace?
Despite reports of continuous battles, can a 30-hour ceasefire somehow grow into something more fulfilling and more inclusive?
With little indication of the desire for compromise or concession up to this point, can Putin convinces him that this is the moment to make a deal?
It’s hard to see that now.
Again, when it comes to diplomacy, we don’t know all the conversations happening behind closed doors, or details of any possible deals that may be under discussion.
We tend to only look at the tips of icebergs.
