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China has beaten expectations of first quarter economic growth, but the remaining prospects for 2025 remain dim as Beijing’s orthotics due to the impact of heavy US tariffs.
The latest data shows China’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 5.4% from the previous year between January and March, falling below analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 5.1% rise.
Meanwhile, after winning 4% in January-February, retail sales, the main sales of consumption of less than 6% year-on-year in March, has seen factory output growth faster from 5.9% in the first two months to 7.7%. Both figures outperformed analysts’ forecasts.
But these figures preceded before President Donald Trump ratcheted tariffs on Chinese goods to eye-catching levels, prompting Beijing to slap the duty of retaliation for imports in a fierce trade war between the two biggest economies of the world, which the world’s biggest economies fear.
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Gantry crane stands near a shipping container in Yangshan Port, a suburb of Shanghai, China, on April 15, 2025. (Reuters/Gona Kamura/Reuters)
Analysts also say China’s March export surge will be a sharp turnaround in the coming months as huge US taxes come into effect, as China’s March export surges are driven by factories rushing to beat the latest Trump tariffs.
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Several other countries have been wiped out by US tariffs, but Trump is targeting China for its biggest collection.
Last week, Trump raised his job in China to 145%, urging Beijing to raise taxes on US goods to 125%, and dismissed US trade measures as “joking.”

After meeting at the office of the Party Central Committee in Hanoi on April 14, 2025, Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary (R) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) left. (via NHAC Nguyen/Pool/AFP Getty Images/Getty Images)
Quarterly, the economy expanded 1.2% in the first quarter, slowing from 1.6% in October to December.
In 2025, China’s economy is expected to grow at a 4.5% pace, a 4.5% reduction compared to the previous year.
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Policymakers have repeatedly said the country has enough space and tools to strengthen its economy, and have pledged to deploy more support measures this month.

President Donald Trump has left, and workers are working on a production line for flexible circuit boards in Sewing, China. (Getty Images, right, /Getty Images via Bonnie Cash/UPI/Bloomberg, left, and Costfoto/Nurphoto)
Beijing has boosted consumption as a top priority this year as it seeks to mitigate the impact of Trump administration’s tariffs on the trade sector.
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Politburo, the dominant Communist Party’s leading decision-making body, will hold a meeting later this month to set a policy agenda for the coming months.
Reuters contributed to this report.