The Congolese government and the opposition rebel movements have agreed to a ceasefire. Following reports that former President Joseph Kabila has returned to the Congo, tensions come when it reaches the boiling point.
Observers have paid great attention to the latest ceasefire signed between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the M23 rebels following many failed attempts to maintain peace in the past. The latest peace attacks mediated in Qatar have come after thousands of deaths in the Congo in recent months alone.
“By mutual agreement, the parties reaffirm their commitment to an immediate halt of hostilities, a categorical rejection of hate speech and threats,” read the joint statement released by the two parties on Wednesday.
However, amid these tentative hopes for a lasting ceasefire, another development of the country appears to have overshadowed the headlines.
Former Congolese President Joseph Kabila was reportedly recently discovered in the eastern town of Goma, which was under the M23 rebel occupation for several months. This appearance, which is allegedly Kabila in Goma, not only sparked a fiery debate on social media, but rumors of his return also seem to have angered the Congolese government.
In response to the report, the Congolese government decided to suspend the People’s Party of Kabila for reconstruction and democracy (PPRD), and issued travel restrictions to families and political allies. His party has not commented on the allegations yet.
However, PPRD supporter Amani Kakimba believes the allegation is unfounded. “We haven’t shown any photos or videos that prove the existence of Kabila here in Sesame,” Kakinba explained. Kabila added that he should return to freedom anyway, as there is no reason to hide “as a free man.”
Kinshasa responds to Kabila’s return report
But the government may see things differently. Kabila’s return to Goma, under the control of the M23 rebels, can be considered a high act of treason by the Congolese government, as the group is supported by the Rwandan government (technically foreign agents).
The Ministry of Home Affairs and the Justice Department have announced the launch of legal proceedings against the former leader and the seizure of Kabila’s assets.
Yvon Muya, a researcher at the School of Conflict Studies at St. Paul University, Ottawa, Canada, told DW that seizing Kabila’s assets could be a serious mistake.
“Kabila is a former head of state. He orders great respect in the Army and the country’s political system. Grabing his assets only makes the situation even worse,” he said.
Kabila has not issued or issued any statements he is expected to arrive in Congo, in line with public image.
“Kabila has always been a mystery. Whether he’s in power or outside,” said Nkere Ntanda of Kinshasa University. Politics experts told DW he agreed that Kabila’s return is not a threat to anyone.
Anxious alliance
However, incumbent President Felix Zisekedi appears to view Kabila as a threat.
Kabila served as president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo for 18 years until 2019. Eventually, Kabila fakes his alliance with Tshiseekedi, but soon suffered a fallout between the two leaders and voluntarily defected in South Africa in 2023.
That fallout could be linked to another senior name in regional politics and overall conflict: Corneille Nangaa, leader of the Congo River Alliance (AFC) movement, considers the M23 rebels as military wings.
Nanga was appointed by then-President Kabila to lead the Congolese Election Commission in 2015, and also oversees the 2018 election to succeed Kabila.
However, the latter of the two elections in particular are plagued by fraud accusations, with many reports of discovering that Tshisekedi’s rival, Martin Fayulu, had actually won the votes. However, Tshisekedi was nominated as the winner of the election regardless of the election.
“Kabila needs to make his position clear.”
Due to his relationship with Nangaa, Kinshasa has repeatedly accused Kabila of supporting the M23 group.
But Muya says that Kabila can support the separatist M23 group in all abilities at least “uncontroversial.”
“He fought the same rebel movement when he was president,” he told DW.
“The government’s response appears to be exaggerated. This establishes a dangerous precedent between the government and the opposition,” Muya said.
Meanwhile, Muya also emphasized that it is in Kabila’s greatest interest if he reveals his position on the ongoing conflict and publicly explains his relationship with rebels and their leaders like Nanga to ensure that his motives cannot be misled.
However, some people on earth seem to have already judged Kabila in the Court of Public Opinion.
“It’s a shame to see a former president who is working hard on the Senator’s hat in the country he led for 18 years, leading a group of rebels with the sole purpose of killing the poor and restoring everything despite his liberation slogan.”
However, Muya believes that in a total of over 120 rebel groups operating in the Congo, government and opposition players should generally step more carefully.
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The role of Kabila in peace efforts
While the Congo’s fragile ceasefire is still subject to further discussion, Kabila does not keep his ambition to participate in peace efforts.
“He has been the head of state for 18 years. He can speak to the rebels and the Kinshasa government. Kabila has good ties with players in Rwanda and other regions in the DRC conflict,” Muya emphasized, adding that it could become an asset as long as he works with the current government and pursues mediation efforts.
However, his successor, Tshisekedi, considers him rather to be an attacker, rather than a peace director.
Kabila accuss Tshiseekedi of mistreating Congolese conflicts by relying so much on foreign intervention, rather than internal dialogue between fighting factions.
According to Muya, the two leaders must understand that they need each other and that the country needs their cooperative efforts to establish lasting peace.
“We are in the middle of a conflict. This is not a good way to integrate the country by excluding some of the political system,” he told DW.
Editor: Seltan Sanderson
