Analysts say Congolese President Joseph Kabila could change efforts from voluntary exile and complicate efforts to resolve the escalating violence in the country’s east.
This week, Kabila announced his intention to leave South Africa, which was expelled from December 2023 and is dealing with the worsening security situation in the Eastern DRC.
His return came amid accusations from President Felix Tsisekedi that Kabila supports the AFC/M23 rebels that have led to recent military advances, including the capture of Bukabu and Sesame in major cities.
“After six years of complete silence, after the security situation deteriorated, I decided to go home without delay to help find a solution,” Kabila wrote Tuesday. “I decided to start in the eastern region where there is a risk nearby.”
Over the past few months, Kabila has spoken unusually openly about the DRC conflict, breaking his usual silence since resigning in 2019.
Political analyst Michael Tibang told RFI that Kabila’s recent activities demonstrate his intention to be more politically involved.
“It’s clear that he’s stepping up to play a more aggressive political role. But he doesn’t put all his cards on the table. In typical Kabila fashion, he maintains a mysterious element of what his true political purpose is,” Tshibangu said.
ICC prosecutor Karim Khan arrives at DRC during the escalation of the Eastern conflict
Meet local leaders
Kabila, who currently writes his dissertation at the University of Johannesburg and spends time in Namibia and Zimbabwe, is reportedly holding meetings with regional and international figures involved in the conflict.
“Kabila met with representatives from Rwanda, Uganda and the region. He is trying to position himself as a reliable alternative to President Felix Tsisekedi, who is currently not enjoying a good relationship with his DRC neighbor,” said Fred Bauma of the Ebteri Institute.
“But he’ll have to convince them of his goodwill and ability to really be part of the solution. But that’s not a completed transaction.”
Kabila also contacted politicians in the Congolese opposition who had been expelled in Europe and held a meeting with opposition leaders Moiz Katubi and Claudel Lubaya in Addis Ababa last December.
“He is trying to reconstruct the political opposition of the DRC and may set himself up to take a leading role with the support of various political parties,” said Bob Kabamba, a lecturer in political science at the University of Liege in Belgium.
Sign up for the AllAfrica newsletter for free
Get the latest African news
success!
Almost finished…
You need to check your email address.
Follow the instructions in the email you sent to complete the process.
error!
There was a problem processing the submission. Please try again later.
Tshibangu noted that Kabila’s announcement of his return will come at a politically sensitive period as President Tshisekedi appears to have been weakened amid a military retreat.
President DRC proposes that a unified government respond to the crisis in the East
A vast territory
Kabila specified exactly when and where he intended to arrive at the Eastern DRC, and did not cite speculation and warning from observers.
“The east of the DRC is a very vast territory and he did not say he would go to an area controlled by the AFC/M23 rebels,” Tshibangu said.
Tshisekedi accused Kabila of sponsoring the AFC/M23 rebels led by the former president of the DRC’s Independent National Election Commission and Kabila’s ally Corneille Nangaa.
Kabila strongly denied these charges and publicly challenged Tshisekedi to provide evidence.
“This explains why he prefers not to go to the capital Kinshasa first, unless the government gives him a guarantee that he will not be arrested,” Tshibangu said.
