While Eastern European romance with Trump runs deep, economic fallout may quickly cool the romance.
Despite Donald Trump’s fraying popularity at home, there is Eastern Europe, where his brand is a very resilient horn of the Earth. Last Sunday, Trump-loving far-right populist George Simion broke through the first round of Romania’s presidential election, securing a realistic path to over 40% of votes and a top office. Reflecting Trump’s pledge to “make America great again,” Simion promises to “return to the Romanians what was taken from them.” He is not an outlier.
In neighbouring Hungary, Prime Minister Victor Orban openly embraces Trump’s standard European mantle. Trump World’s influence in this region goes beyond politics. Jared Kushner is at the forefront of a real estate venture in downtown Belgrade. Donald Trump JR has recently completed his second tour in months of Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria, scuffing his shoulders with politicians, business elites and crypto entrepreneurs, and is eager to develop relationships with Trump’s family.
Eastern Europe’s appeal to the “America First” president is supported by both ideological integrity and hard nose pragmatism. The MAGA message resonates widely throughout the post-communist landscape. A recent Gallup poll ahead of the 2024 US election showed that 49% of respondents in Bulgaria and Hungary and 59% of Serbia preferred Trump over Kamala Harris. This is no coincidence. From former East German AFD supporters to the Tbilisi ruler George Andreem Party, tortists across the region are opposed to the liberal democratic consensus. Their views on issues such as LGBTQ rights, race, gender, multiculturalism, vaccines and Ukraine reflect those of Trump’s base. Trump’s familiarity with Vladimir Putin further strengthened his appeal in Russian-friendly countries like Serbia.
There is also a dimension that transcends borders. The US Eastern European diaspora tends to support Trump, drawn from social conservatism and competition with other ethnic and racial groups. The Western European counterparts are also tilting. In Romania’s recent elections, 60% of Romanians living in the European Union and the UK voted for Simion. Many previously supported Karinjojuk, the far-right figure who was publicly defended by US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference.
At home, the elite is looking at potential enablers in Trump. Overlooking corruption and democratic reversal, Washington’s powerful friends could prove to be a national and international advantage. The outlook that US foreign policy is indistinguishable from the Trump organization’s business agenda is appealing in areas with uncertain sectors such as infrastructure, energy and mining. The recent US-UKRAINE Critical Minerals Agreement is considered a blueprint for curry favor with the trading White House.
This relationship has already brought dividends. In April, the Trump administration overturned sanctions against Antal Logan, a close Orban ally originally imposed under the Biden administration under global Magnitsky laws. This move has raised hope elsewhere. In Bulgaria, Delyan Pivaski, a political heavyweight licensed under Magnitsky, is reportedly putting in a similar reprieve.
But Eastern Europe’s enthusiasm for Trump may prove vulnerable. Ironically, Trump’s economic nationalism threatens to undermine the very economy controlled by his ideological allies. Hungary and Slovakia both rely heavily on car exports and are in a position to suffer under US tariffs. Slovakia’s automotive industry alone accounts for almost 30% of national exports and employs 10% of its labor force. Even a modest 10% tariff can destroy employment in the industrial belt of Central Europe.
Such economic fallouts will have political consequences. In the Czech Republic, it may support populist Andregi Bavis, a businessman like Trump. However, in Hungary, Orban is already facing a serious challenge from Peter Magar, with elections coming in next year. In Slovakia, Robert FICO governs with a majority and public objection. His long-term survival is uncertain.
Trumpism has already proven its responsibility to Canada and Australia’s right-wing allies. While Eastern Europe remains more unacceptable, the region does not escape the risk of excessive identification with movements that go against the European Union, liberal values and global economic integration.
The Maga Revolution may still burn crowds in Bucharest and Belgrade, but that contradiction can burn those who accept it.
The views expressed in this article are the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
