I have had a theory about fantasy baseball for a while. ADP will approach opening day as performance forecasts for the upcoming seasons become less predictable.
Now, this is the theory that in many ways I know that it’s not true. The draft that took place this February of this season would have seen Gerrit Cole leave the board as the top 15 starting pitcher. Injury is one way this theory falls apart, and we clearly know more about the role the closer we get to the opening day.
But I think there’s something about this theory when taking out players whose prices have changed, mainly due to injuries or role changes. Mostly, players’ prices change as they approach the season, which is because of what you see in spring training and what you hear from beat writers. That is, for a rather thin reason.
The 2025 season is too early to test this theory, but I wanted to check in to see how Riser did it before the season. Was the hype worth it? Or should we wander the biggest riser in price?
To identify the 10 biggest risers in ADP, we compared the prices of all players before the opening day to all drafts before that, so let’s see if the hype appears to be worth it. We’ll be revisiting this topic over the next few months, so let’s take a look at what’s very important here.
Cam Smith, 3b, hou
March 21st ADP: 560.4; March 21st: 256.77
This was one of the more legitimate delayed risers, as Smith is essentially completely out of fantasy radar and is worth drafting in all leagues after it was revealed that he would make the Astros roster. Of course, we see the adjustment period required to make the leap from barely playing in Double A to majors while Smith already loses playing time at 43% of the plate appearance. I think there’s a real risk that Smith will be sent back to minors soon, but I’d argue that it would have been reasonable to put a flyer on him outside the Top 200 in case the Astros bet went well. That may be still.
Victor Scott II, Stl
March 21st ADP: 431.3; March 21st: 253.53
Another thing that spiked only after it was revealed he would make a roster, is totally reasonable. And it went much better than last season when Scott flew into the majors and infused with flounder. So far, he’s hit .281/.368/.406 with four steels in nine games. His strikeout rate (23.7%) is a little higher than you would want for someone with limited power, but it’s not exactly a red flag as he actually makes above average contact rates when he sways. He swings on more pitches in the zone and has fewer pursuits than last season. That’s exactly what we want to see. Scott seems much more likely to be particular about this time.
Spencer Strider, P, ATL
March 21st ADP: 122.37; March 21st: 77.11
45 pick jumps, mainly based on two spring outings. On the other hand, that makes sense – he hit 10 batters in four innings, which served as evidence that the function was still in operation. And the beginning of his minor league rehabilitation assignment confirmed that he faced 8.1 innings in Triple A Gwinnett as Strider beat 14 of the 30 batters. That’s probably the only thing that matters.
However, while the results were overwhelming, it should be noted that Strider’s does not go back to his pre-judgment form. In his latest start in Triple A, his fastball averaged 95.9 mph and 1.3 mph per hour since he got healthy in 2023. However, explaining the fact that Strider likely will have to face some limitations when he returns, his price began to be pushed up to a point that left almost margins due to his performance errors. Dominating the minor league and spring lineup may not be the same as putting out a major league. I expect Strider to be very good, I’m not sure he’s as dominant as everyone else.
Aroldis Chapman, P, Bos
March 21st ADP: 328.08; March 21st: 214.32
This is easy enough. It was announced that the Red Sox would be approaching just before the season. He is not the dominant rescuer so that Chapman is not an essential reliefer if he was on a closer committee, but it is certainly enough to be a must-see pitcher if he was close to the nominated. This makes perfect sense.
Clay Holmes, P, NYM
March 21st ADP: 256.5; March 21st: 170.75
This is probably the best example of spring training statistical induced hysteria. Holmes appears this spring at the expanded Arsenal, adding four-seamer, changeup and cutter to the sinker/sweeper/slider mix, hoping that the left-hander will be able to neutralize the platoon benefits he had on him, and get virtually deep into the game. His new ChangeUp was a versatile kick-change meant he was also wiped out by the simultaneous stream of hype that took over the world of baseball. Kick Change is a clever branding to allow you to struggle to add pitches to allow you to struggle to get a pitcher who otherwise struggles to throw a changeup.
It was just three starts, and Holmes looked much better than his final line, especially in his third. Overall, however, Holmes hasn’t looked great as a starter so far. He barely leaned against his expanded Arsenal in his first start, but things weren’t that good when he did it for his second time. The command was pretty bad overall, and he didn’t put it out of five innings until the third start when the sixth steam ran. That’s not to say he can’t become a useful fantasy option to move forward, but I think people have overcome his skiing as his potential ace, as his prices are approaching the top 150 in several drafts this spring. I also moved him this spring, cares but he stayed outside the top 200 for me and I feel good about it.
Dustin May, P, Rudd
March 21st ADP: 400.49; March 21st: 270.97
Here is another thing that is uncertain about its role, and that wasn’t the case. But I also think there were some advantages that are thought to be that they might not be there. He looks great when you see him – his thing gets hot and he seems to be overwhelming. But he is always like a sandy Alcantara-shaped type, and without the outstanding volume that Alcantara has. May has a strikeout rate of 22.2% in his career and has not scored a strikeout early this season. He could still be a very useful fantasy option. Probably not as much as you think it’s coming up here.
Christopher Sanchez, P, P.
March 21st ADP: 173.86; March 21st: 127.47
It was fine if Sanchez prices rose. Because I saw it as more market corrections. After all, he had a 3.32 ERA last season. Velocity Jump added hype to his profile, the hype he’s been living in, and 13 strikeouts in his first 11 innings. This is a solid, stilt profile that may have unleashed an unexpected advantage, and it’s a bet worthy of a profile. He actually reminds me a bit of Alcantara before his younger season. In fact, Sanchez has a lack of skills and injury history to project real workhorse workloads.
Gavin Williams, P, CLE
March 21st ADP: 224.92; March 21st: 165.07
Williams looked healthy, throwing harder than in the spring, sitting comfortably 97-99 and blew the batters away. However, this may be when you buy too much for production, even if the speed improves. He was pumping fastballs primarily by batters this spring, but that wasn’t working in his first two starts. After returning from his elbow last season, Williams began throwing both cutters and stiffer sliders as needed to expand his Arsenal, but he has recently returned to fastball/cleaner/curveball guy. So far, there have been no changes! It could work, but if he’s throwing 70% of the time, he needs to be dominant with fastballs and not yet. There is clearly talent here, but there are also important performance and inherent risks that arise from speed jumps after an elbow injury. I didn’t buy Williams at his price and I wouldn’t drop him if I had him, but I need a shopping opportunity to trade him.
Robbie Ray, P, SF
March 21st ADP: 160.06; March 21st: 120.23
Ray got caught up in some of Ray’s hype this spring, but not necessarily because of his outcome. It mainly reminded me that when I’m healthy, Ray tends to really be good. He hasn’t existed so far, but the way he struggled was the lack of strikeouts, which is not really a concern for Ray. His new ChangeUp is definitely a work in progress, but I trust the rest of Arsenal enough to produce the necessary whims from him. I think Ray should be a very good pitcher. One concern I have is slowing down, but I certainly haven’t panicked because he is still at the level he was in 2022 when he still had a 212 strikeout and a 3.71 ERA.
Christian Campbell, 2B, Boss
March 21st ADP: 297.24; March 21st: 237.78
This is what spring production probably helped to keep Campbell down prices. Because if he had been on his way, he could have been pushed into the top 150 by the end of the draft season. Instead, Campbell’s prices remained completely reasonable despite the fact that he was a top prospect who had been on a clear path to his first day job the whole time. He hit .167/.305/.271 with a strikeout rate of 30.5%.
However, the Red Sox were never really shaken by their belief that Campbell would be their first second baseman, and he rewarded their confidence with a big first 10 games. Maybe that won’t last, but he certainly looks that part, and the fact that the Red Sox have never lost confidence in him was more important to me than Grapefruitreeg’s numbers above 59 games. So far, things have been going well, with Campbell appearing in the outfield several times and three times from multiple qualifications. It’s huge.
