Standing in front of dozens of supporters in a strip mall parking lot in Ocala, Florida on Monday evening, Democratic Congressional candidate Josh Weil made a prediction.
A public school mathematics teacher said less than 24 hours later he was trying to make history by firmly flipping the Republican Capitol.
“Their 2025 agenda will stop here,” he promised, opposed President Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s efforts to cut down on government services and staff.
At a telephone town hall meeting just an hour ago, his Republican enemy, Randy Fine, had a similar message in Tuesday’s special election, but he framed it as a warning, not a promise.
“The Democrats are angry,” he said. “They’re going to do whatever they need to do to stop the Donald Trump agenda.”
From Ocala to the town north of Daytona Beach, voters in the eastern half of central Florida headed to the vote, filling up vacant seats by Michael Waltz, and Trump chose to serve as national security adviser. The Waltz recently sparked a media frenzy after inadvertently adding prominent journalists to high-level group chats about the US strike in Yemen.
The possibility that Waltz’s work could now be at risk is just one of Tuesday’s contests, one of the 435 house seats. It is currently a national story.
The other is that Weil may win despite running in district Trump, which was carried over 30 points last November. And if that were the case, Democrats would take a big step towards a majority of narrowly divided homes.
Win and Lost, the race could also serve as a barometer of voters’ motivations when Trump begins his second term, providing hints for the political landscape ahead of next year’s midterm Congressional election.
It was one of two special elections in Florida on Tuesday. The other will decide to replace Matt Getz, a firefighter lawmaker originally elected attorney general in Florida’s Panhandle region, before retreating under a cloud of sexual misconduct and ethics allegations. Republicans are widely expected to win there.
But that’s not the case here. Weil raised about $10 million in campaign contributions, and warned the $1 million brought by Florida Senator Fine.
Recent polls show that Weil is narrow and doing well. Inside votes by the respected Republican company say Weil was reportedly ahead of the day he was three years old.
That’s enough to cause more than a bit of anxiety in the Republican ranks.
“There’s no excuse for Republicans not to win this race,” said Randy Ross, a Florida-based conservative activist who campaigned for Trump in 2016 and 2024. ”
Ross added that Republican voters need to understand that the fines support Trump’s agenda in Congress.
To this end, some of the party’s heaviest batsmen intervened in help. Last Thursday, Trump joined the Republican candidate at two phone town hall events. On Monday night, Florida State Assemblyman Byron Donald and conservative commentator Ben Shapiro held their own event.
“The Donald Trump agenda is hanging in the thread,” Shapiro said. “This is a district that cannot simply fall into democratic hands.”
Trump’s close ally, high-tech masks may be campaigning directly for the hotly contested Wisconsin Supreme Court competition, but his political committee has directed more than $75,000 to support the recent fine. Other conservative groups followed suit and detailed evaluations of the financial playing field.
Of particular concern for the party is that special elections take place during periods of low political involvement, usually only one race in question is involved. Ross said they often leaned towards the party with the most enthusiasm. For Republicans, Tuesday’s show of democratic strength is troubling.
“You can’t go just by name recognition in a special election,” he said. “You have to kick people out to vote for you.”
Republican tensions are the result of simple mathematics in the House. With a majority of 218-213 in 435 seat chambers, the party cannot afford to lose a winning election.
Weil’s victory alone isn’t enough to flip through the room’s control, but the two currently available seats are safely in a democratic district. If the outcomes of these special elections go as expected, the Democrats will be in danger of control.
It could explain why the president retracted New York Sen. Elise Stefanik’s choice on Friday. Weil’s victory on Tuesday means Republicans couldn’t afford to lose New York’s election to replace Stephanik.
Even before Tuesday’s vote, both Democrats and Republicans jokingly framed the outcome in the light of their party’s best.
Conservatives downplayed the national influence of race and were held responsible for fines.
“It’s a reflection of the candidates running the race,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said of Fine’s apparent misperformance.
Meanwhile, Democrats have declared victory – at least moral diversity.
“These are races that should not be on anyone’s political radar under normal circumstances,” ethnic minority leader Hakeem Jeffries said last Monday. “Americans don’t buy what Republicans sell.”
That sentiment was echoed by many of Weil’s supporters on Monday night in Ocala, even if the candidate himself said he would win the BBC eight points.
“If we’re losing but we’re coming close, moderate Republicans may take note,” said lawyer and educator Buddy Oswald. If they were worried that their party would lose their safe seats, he added, perhaps they would feel the heat and be more willing to break with the president.
Eight years ago, in the aftermath of Trump’s astounding presidential victory in 2016, Democrats crossed the map and sought comfort in a special election race. They received several shocks, including a deep, conservative Senate victory in Alabama. Democrats have just been shorter for other races, such as a bid by John Ossoff in the suburban Atlanta district.
These races predicted a high level of democratic enthusiasm that led to waves in the mid-term the following year, when the party reclaimed the House and won 39 seats by decisively completing Trump’s first legislative agenda.
Republicans want to hold back the chance that history will repeat itself with a compelling victory Tuesday.
Democrats who are engaged in sometimes-inspiring debates about strategy and political priorities want Florida to return to their victory column, or at least give hope for a better day ahead.
