Friedrich Merz’s party won the German national election in late February. After weeks of coalition negotiations, Merz finally went to the prime minister’s office late Tuesday afternoon.
In the interim, almost all of Merz’s problems have worsened.
The stagnant German economy forecast that Merz promised to start is slack under the weight of President Trump’s tariffs and trade war. Trump’s relationship with the administration continues to fight.
The far-right party, Germany or the AFD, which many of Trump’s teams believe are supporting, has even pulled Merz’s central right Christian Democrats in most polls. The AFD may have come first if the national election was held again on Sunday, despite the German intelligence agency officially declaring it a militant group.
Tuesday still brought about the biggest setback. Merz couldn’t secure his vote to become prime minister in his first vote in Congress. Approximately 18 members of his governing coalition refused to support him. Despite returning to win the job in the afternoon with a second vote, it was a first for modern Germany and a bruise for Merz.
Merz is already facing a towering twin task as Prime Minister. He must show Europe and the world that he is ready to take on the leadership role since the heyday of former Prime Minister Angela Merkel over a decade ago. He also has to convince the German masses who are unhappy with business politics, the shattering that mainstream parties can bring about the necessary changes.
It is likely that the initial Barot obstacles on Tuesday made both tasks more difficult. At home, the stumbling reminds me that Merz’s coalition does not order an overwhelming majority in Congress and that his agenda can be derailed by some of the main laws.
Merz hopes to strengthen German borders and strengthen migration policies to address voters’ fears over the new arrivals of millions of countries. He wants to cut regulations and modernize bureaucracy in the hopes of robbing economic growth. Germany’s economy shrunk last year, but has not grown under inflation-adjusted conditions for six months.
The new prime minister must also pass laws to spend new borrowed money for initiatives to combat climate change, improving the military, infrastructure and spending new money. All of the initiatives were approved in post-election lame lawmaker sessions in transactions he cut with the central left party, but have not yet been put into law.
But Merz’s allies now question their ability to count votes to pass the bill. He successfully supported debt transactions in March. However, in January he tried to pass pre-election immigration bills by relying in part on AFD votes and breaking German political taboos.
Foreign leaders may wonder how much Merz on his agenda can push through, and perhaps how much his government will endure. The spending law is particularly important for European partners leading towards Germany, as the continent takes more responsibility for its own defense in the face of Trump’s threat of pulling back American support. Merz was scheduled to spend his first day working on a trip to Paris and Warsaw on Wednesday.
In Paris, Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron held a press conference to confirm Europe’s commitment to defense and security.
Trump may now think that he is undermining Meltz and complicating the new prime minister’s efforts to criticize Washington’s defense and economic policy while cultivating personal relationships with the US president.
Concerns about these aftershocks appear to be shaking members of Merz’s coalition, including the Social Democrats on the centre left, on Tuesday afternoon. He won 15 votes from the morning vote.
Some lawmakers personally suggested that the initial asylum was meant as a personal protest, and that Merz was opposed to his coalition in his policy choices since the election, but not in fact intended to stop him from winning. Perhaps they suggested, embarrassment would ensure more unity in the future.
However, the event also made AFD bolder. On the contrary, the job is easier than Mr. Mertz’s. Leaning on dysfunction, blame the incumbent government, presenting its populist agenda as the only option for changing the country that has fallen into the status quo.
“This government will start with extreme instability,” AFD representative Bernd Baumann said in a speech just before his second parliamentary vote on Tuesday. “And it remains unstable. That’s the opposite of what Germany needs.”
Merz knows that solving problems like the economy is his best hope to keep AFD at bay. According to polls, he is not personally popular with voters. He, like so many democracies around the world, is disillusioned with the long-standing political elite.
If Merz needed that additional evidence, he could have read it in the Berlin Morgenpost newspaper on Tuesday morning hours before his first fateful vote.
“Friedrich Merz’s Big Day,” read Reid’s headline. “But there is no sense of happiness in Germany.”
