Future elections in Gabon will test whether the country is on a solid democratic footing or whether it is governed by military personnel but pretending to be democratic choices or business as usual.
Current transitional president Bryce Oligui Nuguema staged a coup against Ali Bongo in August 2023. Origui Nuguema and his junta have pledged to return power to civilians at the end of the two-year military transition.
But the oligui nuema has the wrong foot opposition figures in two ways. First, he announced the election six months earlier than the allowed transition arrangement. Secondly, in early March he resigned from his office as a general, presenting himself as a civilian and therefore qualified to run as a candidate. He is competing with seven other candidates. One of them is Claude Billy by Nez, former Prime Minister of Gabon.
As a political scientist specializing in African politics, I researched and published research into Gabon’s politics.
Most of the other candidates have no national supporters and lack sufficient campaign finance or party machinery across forested national territory, which claims that the presidential race has been reduced to an outflow between two men, Oligui Nuguema and Billy By Nez.
Both men were part of the previous administration. The two men agreed to oppose each other, but they were not in conflict with each other.
Anyone who wins the April 12 election will see the new government run by members of the former. Therefore, for the Gabonian people, perhaps the only thing that will change is the end of the Bongo dynasty in 56.
Candidate
Originally, applications for 23 candidacy were sent to the National Committee to organise and coordinate elections and referendums. On March 27, Gabon’s Constitutional Court examined eight candidates.
They are Thierry Yvon Michel Ngoma, Axel Stophain Ibinbinya, Alan Simple Bingael, Xenaba Ginga’s Changes, Stephen German Iroko, Joseph Lapensey Essaygone, Billy By Nez and Olig Nuguema.
Since the late President Omar Bongo (1967-2009) introduced the one-party rules, the Gabonne Democrats have won all presidential and legislative elections.
Read more: Gabon: Post-Cooper Dialogues Map the Road to Democracy – Now Military Leaders Must Action
Initially, the junta threatened to exclude the former ruling party from participating in the 2025 multi-party election. But a year after close consultations with former minister, agent and local party “Big Men,” Olign Nuguema decided to allow the Gabonne Democrats to present their candidates.
In return, the party agreed to call on all activists and supporters to vote for Oligui Nguema.
If Oligui Nguema revives the former ruling party that controlled Gabon from 1967 to 2023, the politician and its national machine, Bilie-nze, positioned himself as a “candidate for bursting.” Beyond public attitudes, there doesn’t seem to be much difference between the two.
Read more: Gabon coups have been created for years: 3 key factors that will end the Bongo dynasty
Election Act, High-tech Procedures
Elections following the new code introduced in January 2025 include several key steps to ensure transparency and fairness.
Citizens will register for the vote and provide their residence identity and proof. With a new constitutional referendum held in November 2024, the election list is almost complete. Elections must be organized based on a “permanent biocertified election list.” This means that the voter’s biometric registration will be used for verification. Information and communication technologies should be used to ensure the transparency, efficiency and reliability of votes. Presents candidate and party campaigns, platforms and policies. This campaign period is regulated to ensure fair play due to restrictions on campaign funding and media coverage. Polling stations are installed nationwide with the necessary high-tech materials. Election officers are trained to support voters and manage the process. Voters will receive a vote listing all candidates and parties. They mark selections at private booths to ensure confidentiality. Once the vote is finished, the votes will be counted under strict supervision to prevent tampering. The counting is transparent and there are representatives of political parties and observers to monitor the process in accordance with Article 90 of the Election Act. The official results will be published by the Election Commission and are present for observers to verify the process. Despite having a high-tech biometric counting system, it can take up to two weeks to release official results, especially if the results are close.
Disputes or complaints will be addressed through legal channels in accordance with Article 105 of the Election Act to ensure fair outcomes.
Questions persist
Despite these systems in place, opposition figures (including former Home Minister Jean Remy Yama) have expressed doubt about the fairness of the process.
Firstly, candidates approved by the Gabonne Democrats always won. Oligui nuema is the most likely winner in a statistical sense, as it has been approved by the Gabonese Democratic Party.
Second, a prominent figure from the former administration, the current leading actor, criticised Origui Nuguema’s early release of the poll. According to his transition schedule, the election was to take place in August 2025. It’s an old trick: call for a quick election to prevent the opposition from uniting behind the common candidates who can challenge the president.
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Read more: Gabon: How the 56-year Bongo rules hurt the country and split the opposition
Overlook
Based on his past experience as an election observer in Gabon, Gaboné’s Red Cross will mobilize a team of 200 volunteers, in addition to his staff. This team will supplement the limited human resources available during the 2023 business to support public institutions.
International observers from organizations such as the African Union and the United Nations are expected to monitor elections to ensure they are free and fair and provide an additional layer of surveillance.
Also, security measures will be increased to maintain peace and order during elections, allowing citizens to exercise their democratic rights without fear or threat.
If the referendum held in November 2024 is an indicator of the future, foreign observers should expect a peaceful presidential election with a clear victory for the winner.
It promises a peaceful transition from military rule to civilian rule. This is especially true as the new government is run by members of the former.
Douglas Yates, Professor of Politics, American Graduate School (AGS) in Paris
