Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated sharply on Thursday as the Pakistan government announced a series of drastic retaliation measures, including the closure of airspace to Indian airlines, one day after the Pakistan government moved to punish Pakistan for a deadly radical attack in Kashmir.
After a high-level meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Commission, the government announced that in addition to halting all India’s transport through Pakistan, it would also order India to cut Islamabad’s diplomatic staff and suspend all trade with India.
The Indian government has not officially identified the group behind Tuesday’s attacks in the scenic tourist spot in India-controlled Kashmir. However, it announced a surge in punitive measures against Pakistan on Wednesday. This included the suspension of the important water treaty, responding to what he said was Pakistan’s support for terrorist attacks within India.
On Thursday, Pakistan’s leading civilians and military leaders were called Indian action. This included revoking the visa for Pakistanis and downgrading diplomatic relations. “One-sided, politically motivated, legally invalid.”
In a strongly expressed statement regarding the suspension of India’s water treaty, Pakistan warned that attempts to block or divert flows to Pakistan are “considered an act of war.” Pakistan relies on water from the Indus River system flowing through India for around 90% of agriculture.
The treaty, mediated by the World Bank in 1960, has long been seen as a pillar of stability, a rare in South Asia. Their understanding now marks ruptures with symbolic and strategic weights.
Before the Security Committee meeting on Thursday, the Pakistani government threw a measured tone after extremists killed more than two dozen Indian civilians in Kashmir on Tuesday.
However, people are increasing concern as Indian officials suggest a possible military strike across Pakistan. And if hostilities among nuclear neighbors intensify, television broadcasts are warning of unpredictable outcomes in defense analysts.
The attacks in Kashmir, a region of both countries, sparked a familiar pattern of war as they claimed and fought.
The Indian news media, which has been primarily affiliated with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, quickly turned their fingers to Pakistan. Pakistan denied involvement and accused India of attempting to distract attention from the failure of security in the resting area.
The last militant attack of this scale in the Indian part of Kashmir took place in 2019, when dozens of Indian security personnel were killed. After that attack, India launched an air battle that had stopped until all-out war.
Some Pakistani analysts have warned that the current conflict could intensify beyond the 2019 standoff. “The escalation in India has already begun last night, and will be larger than in February 2019,” Islamabad security analyst Syed Muhammad Ali said on Wednesday.
He argued that India used the attacks to call for solidarity with the US, not only easing tensions over President Trump’s tariff threat, but also reconstituting Kashmir’s push for independence as a terrorist movement.
As of Wednesday, Pakistani officials said they had not seen evidence of India’s military mobilization. They said the Pakistani military remains vigilant along the line of control that separates India and Pakistan’s admist extensions of Kashmir.
A senior Pakistani security guard spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic and military issues, saying that Pakistan will approach escalation carefully but will prevent intrusion by India if it occurs.
Some military analysts and current and former officials accused India of holding the attack, noting that it came while Vice President JD Vance was visiting India.
“They are denounced Pakistan without evidence,” retired brigadier Ahmed Said Minhas told the television channel Geo News.
He then joked about the 2019 standoff between Pakistan and India. When the video came out of Commander Wing Abhinandan Vartaman, a pilot of the Indian Air Force, he sipped tea under Pakistan custody.
“If India tries anything again, they should remember. They offered tea to Abhinandan in 2019,” Minhas said. “This time, we might offer him biscuits.”
Current tensions have revived memories of the 2019 episode.
A February suicide bombing in Pulwama city prompted an Indian airstrike within Pakistan, causing a dog fight. An Indian jet was shot down and Wing Commander Valtaman was captured and later released.
Officials say the current situation is different from 2019. Meanwhile, the Pulwama attack was allegedly argued by extremist Muslim group Jaish-e-Mohammed and targeted security personnel, but on Tuesday, unarmed civilians were involved, with claims of responsibility being ambiguous and unreleased.
So far, Pakistani forces have not issued an official statement regarding Tuesday’s attack. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the loss of life, rejected any role by Pakistan and urged India to avoid “immature and irresponsible allegations.”
Officials and analysts warn that the area avoided a catastrophe in 2019, but that fortune may not repeat itself.
“During the final escalation, we were fortunate that India and Pakistan both resigned from the Ladha,” said former interim information minister Murtaza Solangi.
“This time we are at a more dangerous stage,” he said. “The fractured global order and Indian hyperventilation media make it difficult for Modi to act rationally. If India does not stop this insanity, both countries will be pure losers.”
