The possibility of Western forces’ deployment into Ukraine, which is being discussed in London, should be described as “feeling power,” rather than “peacekeeping forces,” defense and diplomatic sources say.
Now called the multinational forces of the Ukraine or MFU, they are sent to the country to strengthen ceasefires and encourage long-term trust in the country.
The focus is to provide Ukraine with an air force to keep the air safe and maintain the naval presence in the Black Sea to encourage trade.
The development of so-called “boots on earth” – perhaps the strength of around 20,000 people – is not large enough to force peace in terms of size.
Instead, the troops provided by the so-called “Welcome Union” would likely be deployed to protect cities, ports and major energy infrastructure.
One option considered is that the MFU may not operate in the east of Ukraine, near the frontline.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have repeatedly said they would not agree to a ceasefire if Europe and other troops were deployed in Ukraine.
Sources say multinational operations in Ukraine are not “peacekeeping forces” and should not be explained that way.
Peacekeeping forces – under the support of either the United Nations or NATO – are traditionally fair, operated with the consent of both parties and use their forces solely to protect themselves. The multinational forces under discussion are so many on the side of Ukraine that they will help to stop future Russian invasions.
At this time, it is not expected that multinational forces on the ground will monitor a ceasefire. It is done by the Ukrainian army on the frontlines of the air and space and on the western surveillance assets.
Sources say that if Russia resumes its Ukraine breach, the Allied forces will not be deployed to provide a so-called “tripwire force,” meaning “tripwire force,” designed to stop attacks without causing escalation.
They say the military impact of the deployment of the Allied forces of around 20,000 men is limited compared to the number of troops on either side of the front line.
Ukraine has almost a million soldiers, and the Russian army is even bigger.
Much of the focus of Thursday’s discussion is the best way that international forces can provide assets that do not have in Ukraine, especially airborne capabilities.
So there is debate as to which countries can offer fighter jets to keep Ukraine’s skies safe during a ceasefire.
There will also be discussion about how to make the Black Sea safe for shipping costs. It may contain two components. The best way to maintain transport lanes to avoid mines and what naval task forces can provide a security presence at sea.
A key uncertainty is whether the US will provide air, satellites, or intelligence communications agencies to European troops on the ground.
The United States has said so far it is willing to offer a military “backstop.”
For now, the European strategy is to stop asking the US and instead organize the best possible power and capabilities to ensure the safety of Ukraine in the future. Once details are agreed, the UK, France and others will see if the US is sufficient European offer to agree to have a change of heart and play some role.
Of course, what this plan depends entirely on is that some kind of ceasefire has been agreed in Ukraine.
The US remains optimistic, but many in Ukraine remain skeptical that Russia even wants to end the battle.
