Parham Ghobadi
BBC Persian
EPA
Iran and the US held a second round of high stakes nuclear negotiations in Rome – and agreed to meet again next week.
US President Donald Trump reminds him of that option almost every day: a deal or war.
He previously said that if the meeting fails, Israel will lead its military response.
On Wednesday, the New York Times reported that Trump “waves” Israel’s plan to launch an Iranian nuclear site as early as next month.
“I’m not saying I got it. I’m not in a hurry to do it,” Trump told reporters in response to a story on Thursday, adding that he liked to give diplomacy a chance.
“Iran has a great country and I think there’s an opportunity to live happily when you die… that’s my first choice. If there’s a second choice, I think it’s very bad for Iran.”
After both sides described the initial talks in Oman last weekend as constructive, Trump said he would “decided Iran very quickly.”
Why Iran returned to the table
In 2018, Trump pulled the United States out of the 2015 agreement. This has allowed Iran to restrict nuclear activity and to allow testing by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in return for sanctions relief.
He said it was too few to stop Iran’s potential routes to nuclear weapons, and reinstated US sanctions as part of a “maximum pressure” campaign that forced Iran to negotiate a new deal.
However, Iran refused to limit retaliation and violated more and more. Now, if you choose it, you have a stockpile of highly abundant uranium enough to make some bombs.
EPA
President Masoud Pezeshkian showed off Iranian nuclear technology at an exhibition held in Tehran earlier this month
The threat of military action appears to have played a role in bringing Iran back to the negotiation table. But they argue that it’s not a reason.
Supreme Leader’s website Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran was strictly restricted to nuclear issues from us and Israeli attacks, just because the US had strictly restricted its demands on nuclear issues.
Still, we are not certain that we will reach the deal.
Trump’s envoy to Middle Eastern Steve Witkov, who leads the US negotiation team, posted on X on Tuesday.
It came a day after an interview with Fox News suggested that Iran be allowed to continue enriching uranium.
AFP
US envoy Steve Witkov (L) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragci (R) lead two negotiation teams
“They don’t need to enrich the past 3.67%,” he said, noting the restrictions set by the 2015 nuclear deal.
“This will be about verification of the enrichment program and ultimately about weaponization.”
Foreign Minister Abbas Aragut, head of the Iranian delegation, responded by noting Witkov’s “contradictory statement” and emphasizing that “actual positions will be revealed at the negotiation table.”
“We are ready to build confidence in the potential concerns about Iran’s enrichment, but the principle of enrichment cannot be negotiated,” he said.
Diplomatic gust
Saturday’s speech in Rome comes amidst a gust of diplomatic activities.
Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Defense Prince Khalid bin Salman visited Tehran on Thursday and delivered a personal message to Ayatollah Khamenei from his father King Salman. He also met Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian.
Iran warns that US military actions will be filled with retaliation against American bases in the region. Many of them were hosted by Arab neighbors in Iran.
EPA
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R) met Saudi Arabian Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman in Tehran
At the same time, Aragut visited Moscow and handed a letter from Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Iran and Russia have strengthened military ties since the start of the war in Ukraine, with Tehran being accused of supplying drones to support Moscow’s war efforts.
The Russian parliament ratified the 20-year strategic partnership between Iran and Russia 10 days ago. However, this transaction does not include mutual defense clauses.
Meanwhile, IAEA Chihurafaer Grossi completed a two-day visit to Tehran this week, meeting with Iranian nuclear officials and the Foreign Minister to ease tensions and restore testing protocols.
An atmosphere of distrust
Since Trump took office this year, Ayatollah Khamenei has consistently denounced negotiations with Washington.
“Negotiations with this administration are not logical, wise or honorable,” he said in a February speech just two months before agreeing to the current meeting.
The distrust of the Supreme Leader comes from Trump’s withdrawal from nuclear deals, the subsequent “maximum pressure” campaign, and the assassination of General Kasem Soleimani on the 2020 US strike in Iraq.
Ayatollah Khamenei expressed his satisfaction with the first round of talks, saying it was “well implemented.”
However, he warned that he was “not overly optimistic or overly pessimistic.”
Getty Images
Six US B-2 bombers moved to bases on the Indian Ocean Island of Diego Garcia in March
He previously warned Iran would retaliate if he was hit by a nuclear program.
Some officials, including advisor Ali Larijani, even said that if attacked, Iran could be “forced” to “force” nuclear weapons.
“We are not pursuing weapons. There is no problem with surveillance of the IAEA, even indefinitely. But when we rely on bombing, Iran has no choice but to reconsider. That’s not your interest.”
Direct or indirect?
Each side is pushing its own story of how the lecture is being done.
The US says they are directly. Iran says they are indirect and Oman is mediating by exchanging written notes.
After his first round at Muscat, Araghchi admitted that he had a brief exchange with Witkoff “from diplomatic courtesy” after crossing the road.
US news website Axios reported that two chief negotiators spoke for up to 45 minutes, citing the source.
Tehran likes secrets. Washington is seeking publicity.
Iran’s currency surged 20% after both sides issued positive statements about the first round.
Iran’s leadership is fully aware of the public’s dissatisfaction with the country’s harsh economic situation and the potential protests it may cause.
For the Islamic Republic, fear is more than just bombs – it’s protesting too.
