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Is elections possible in Ukraine during the full-scale Russian invasion?
The idea of elections here may seem fanciful, as Ukrainian cities are bombed almost every night by Russia.
But in Kiev, the capital’s streets and office, the outlook for the country to go to vote is once again under debate.
The election rumours have arisen over the three years of Russia’s full-scale war.
They argue that whenever it is rejected by the government, the opposition, or the people, a unity of efforts against Russian invaders must come first.
The presidential election scheduled for 2024 was suspended in line with martial law introduced in Ukraine two years ago following a full-scale Russian invasion.
But that didn’t stop the Kremlin from insisting that President Voldimill Zelensky is an illegal leader and demanding a new election as a condition of the ceasefire agreement.
Now there is a new gust of speculation that Zelensky may be thinking again as the ceasefire talks progress, and several sources telling the BBC suggest that there is reason to believe the election could move forward later this year.
The president’s closest rival, Valeri Zarzni, is the former commander of the Ukrainian military chief and feels the need to deny rumors about his intentions.
“My answer to this has not changed,” he told RBC-Ukraine News Agency. “While the war continues, we all need to work to save the country rather than think about elections. We won’t comment on rumors.”
Currently, propaganda shy Zaluzhnyi, ambassador to London in Ukraine, felt the need to issue a statement was impressive in itself.
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The popular Zarzni was once the commander of Ukraine before becoming an ambassador for the UK.
Oledenko, head of Ukraine’s Central Election Commission, also chose to speak publicly about the speculation.
He told the Ukrainska Pravda news website that the law must be changed before elections take place. He said the current rules must hold parliamentary elections 60 days after martial law is lifted and 90 days after the presidential election.
But more time is needed for the war, and that will require legal changes.
The economist newspaper alleged that Zelensky held a meeting last week to discuss the election, and directed staff to prepare for the vote after the US forced Russia to accept a ceasefire early in Easter.
The report was rejected by several government sources.
“There’s fake information there,” one presidential source told BBC News Ukrainians. “There was no such meeting, and there was no such instruction.”
Government sources said the main focus was on achieving peace, with little hope for a war that would end with Easter.
So, in the face of so many public denials, why do people think that elections are in the future?
First, several sources note that Zelensky’s support in the vote has been picked up since he was plagued by Donald Trump and White House Vice President JD Vance.
A poll by the Kiev International Sociology Institute (KIIS) in March suggested that the number of Ukrainians who trusted Zelensky had scored several points at 69% the previous month.
Diplomats say the president may now think his best chance to win a second term, rather than wait for the emergence of political divisions after the war.
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Zelensky has become more popular in Ukraine since being criticised by Donald Trump in the White House
Secondly, Zelensky called the Russian Bluff to win the second term and strengthened his hand in long-term peace negotiations. Last week, President Vladimir Putin said the UN should take over Ukraine and organize a “democratic presidential election.” His assumption – perhaps wrong – is that Zelensky will be replaced.
Third, martial law must be updated by parliamentary votes in early May. Zelensky was able to use that timetable to announce that martial law would expire at elections held later in the summer.
Fourth, Americans are sure the election is coming. President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, told the Tucker Carlson Podcast on March 21. “They agreed. Ukraine has an election.”
Zelensky was able to use this pressure from the US, which reflects the Russian narrative as an excuse to tell voters that they had no choice but to hold elections.
Fifth, some Ukrainian sources believe that logistical obstacles to elections can be overcome.
Millions of citizens are evacuated overseas, in the forefront and occupied areas. The answer is to use a smartphone app called DIIA to allow people to vote. This includes people’s core documents such as passports, ID cards, and driver licenses.
With DIIA, some people will be able to vote quickly, cheaply and safely, without having to travel to the voting booth overseas or in trench. They point out that Ukrainians are using it well to vote in Eurovision’s song contest. They also note that President Zelensky gave all Ukrainians almost £20 in winter allowance last December, and many people have registered using DIIA.
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Ukrainians can use the DIIA app for many types of official state services
But there remains a lot of debate about the election.
To use DIIA, you need new laws that could make you struggle to pass Congress. DIIA can be vulnerable to cyberattacks and technical failures. The Western government may not believe it can be trusted. Russia certainly isn’t.
Even if DIIA is used, identifying who can vote is still a time-consuming in an incomplete and outdated register.
Lifting martial law during a temporary ceasefire could have unexpected consequences, such as flying hundreds of thousands of soldiers from the frontline, just as Russia prepared to counterattack. Russia was able to shoot a line of voters at the polling station.
But any election, any election, can be held quickly, replacing wartime unity with a political line. Elections allow Russia to deploy digital and other propaganda to shape the outcome.
Holding the election might be viewed as accepting the Russian argument that Volodymyr Zelensky’s leadership is illegal as last year’s election was suspended.
Perhaps the strongest argument for elections is that the Ukrainians themselves don’t want them. The same March poll by KII found that around 78% of people were opposed to holding elections even after the war was fully resolved.
