Andrew Harding
Paris correspondent
BBC
Anger is a valuable political currency, and France’s far right spent this week fiercely and predictably taking advantage of the perceived injustice of the court’s decision to stop Totemic leader Marine Penn in 2027 presidential election.
The radio waves are throbbing.
“Rurture me,” one of Le Pen’s main agents on French television said in case no one doubts about what their reaction should be.
However, it remains unclear whether Le Pen’s harsh sentence will broaden her party’s support of the National Assembly (RN), or whether it will lead to a greater fragmentation of France’s far right. Either way, it created a frenzy among the country’s politicians.
Le Pen and her allies boldly declare that French institutions and democracy itself are “executed”, “dead”, or “violated”. The country’s judicial system is transformed into a “political” hit team, shamelessly intervening in the country’s right to choose its leadership. And Marine Le Pen is widely portrayed in something close to certainty, as the country’s most popular politician and the waiting president of France, as the almost charming procession to the Palace of Elisées.
“The system has released a nuclear bomb, if it uses such a powerful weapon against us, it’s obviously because we’re trying to win the election,” Le Pen said at a press conference, comparing herself to Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition politician who is poisoned, imprisoned and now dead.
Uneven pushbacks began as France acclaimed its latest political tremors.
There is no clear frontrunner for the president
Prime Minister François Byrou feels “troubled” by Le Pen’s ruling and worries about the “shock” of public opinion as he is nervous about the possible impact of the ruling on the country’s frail coalition government.
However, other centralist politicians are stealing stronger boundaries by highlighting the need for a clear gap between the judicial system and politics.
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A poll conducted a day before the court’s ruling predicts that Le Pen will secure up to 37% of the votes in the 2027 presidential election.
Early opinions appear to indicate that the French public is taking the calm line away. Polls generated within hours of the court’s ruling showed that less than a third of the country (31%) felt that the decision to immediately stop them from running for office was unfair.
Needless to say, the figure was less than 37% of French people who recently expressed interest in voting for her as president.
In other words, many people who like her as a politician think it’s reasonable that her crime should disqualify her from office.
And don’t forget that the French presidential election is still two years away. It is the eternal political situation today.
Emmanuel Macron has no right to support another term, and Le Pen’s clear alternatives from the left or center of French politics have yet to emerge. Le Pen’s vote share has consistently increased amid the previous three failed bids on top jobs, but it’s too early to think of it as the 2027 Shoo-in.
Le Pen’s crimes and punishments
Anyone who followed the trial in a fair way to her and her party colleagues would have a hard time concludeting that the verdict in Le Pen’s case is unreasonable.
Evidence from the large, coordinated project to fraud the European Parliament and its associated taxpayers included surprising guilty emails suggesting that officials knew exactly what they were doing and the illegality of their actions.
It certainly does not change that corruption was for the party, not for personal gain. Corruption is corruption. Moreover, other parties are also found guilty of similar crimes.
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On March 31, Marine Lupen was banned for five years as soon as he was effective.
Regarding the punishment handed out by the court, it appears fair here to argue that Le Pen and her party have made a strategic failure in their approach to the case.
If they had admitted the facts and their mistakes, then they had cooperated in promoting a rapid trial rather than helping to elicit the process for nearly a decade, the judges could have taken an attitude towards the case when considering punishment, as it became clear.
“It wasn’t like that during the investigation or in the trial. [Le Pen] It shows us a sense of the need for probability as an elected official and the responsibility that follows,” he wrote to judges in documents explaining why they had sentenced such a harsh sentence.
They beg Le Pen because they wanted to delay or avoid justice in a “defense system that ignores the obvious truth.”
Hypocrisy among elites
It is worth noting here that the broader hypocrisy demonstrated by the elite across the French political spectrum has recently tweeted sympathy for Le Pen. It has been nine years since lawmakers voted to strengthen corruption laws, and in this case, they introduced precisely the sanctions by immediately banning off criminals from public office, which was used by judges.
Its intensification was welcomed by the public as an antidote to the justice system stumped by the lavish culture of serial appeals that allowed politicians to dodge accountability for decades, and sometimes still possible.
Le Pen is now happy to be provoked online by her critics in many past cases where she has sought stricter laws on corruption.
“When will you learn lessons and effectively introduce lifetime ineligibility to those convicted of conduct committed during their tenure or tenure?” she asked in 2013.
Reasonable people can reasonably oppose the decision of the court’s judgment in the case of Le Pen. However, the concept enthusiastically recognized by European and American populists and solid politicians clearly does not convince most French people that she is a victim of a conspiratorial political plot.
At least not yet.
The far right future of France
So, is this verdict clearly a seismic moment in French politics, leaving national assembly and the wider far-right movement?
The simple answer is that no one knows. There are so many variables involved, from the fate of Le Pen’s rapid appeal to the succession strategy of the RN, to the unstable financial state of France, to the apparent appetite for populism around France and around the world.
Given the slow pace of legal appeal that Le Pen has pledged to commence, the most pressing question is whether the RN will seek a quick revenge in Congress by trying to overthrow the vulnerable coalition government in François Bayrou.
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Marine Le Pen takes over the far-right national rally party (formerly the national front) following his father Jean-Marie (right).
That could lead to a new parliamentary election this summer, allowing RN to leverage its victim status to increase its lead in Congress, and perhaps push the country towards a deadlock where President Macron might feel he has an obligation to step down.
Now facing extra scrutiny is Le Pen’s nearly anointed successor, 29-year-old Jordan Bardera, who could be drafted as an alternative presidential candidate if Le Pen’s own “narrow path” is blocked by appeal for Elisé.
If Bardera’s popularity among social media-savvy French youth is a sign of his outlook, he was able to win in 2027. He found a way to exploit the frustration of people who are angry at lower standards of living and concerns about immigration.
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Jordan Bardera is considered the successor to Le Pen and uses social media to attract support among young French people
However, turning youthful support into a real voting isn’t always easy, and other more experienced mainstream figures on the right may also feel the opportunity.
Home Minister Bruno Reciro is widely seen as revealing as a potential candidate. Some think that Cyril Hanouna, a provocative television character, will become a serious political force in French political rights.
Bardella, on the other hand, generally like RN, has a very disciplined mission to detoxify once overtly racist and anti-Semitic brands. In February, for example, he abandoned plans to speak at a far-right CPAC event in America after Donald Trump’s former advisor Steve Bannon gave a Nazi salute.
However, events this week revealed that RN is clearly committed to the Trumpian and populist strategy of denounceing misfortunes on the “swamp” of unelected officials. Meanwhile, Bardella complained about the recent closure of two right-wing media channels, along with his party’s own legal struggle.
“Today there is a very serious drift where we don’t reflect the idea of French democracy,” he said.
It is a type of language that doesn’t work with RN’s core constituencies, but in many ways its broader appeal can be limited in countries that are deeply attached to its institutions.
To frame it another way, could French voters be more motivated by their belief that Le Pen was unfairly punished or concerns that the judges involved have since been victims of death threats and other insults?
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Emmanuel Macron was re-elected in 2022 – he is not qualified to support another term and there is no clear alternative to Le Pen.
As for Marine Le Pen, she vowed that she would not be seen by the sidelines. But her destiny is not entirely in her own hands. At the age of 56, she became a familiar figure and sometimes burning, but personally friendly, warm, politically very influential and disciplined. So, what’s next for her?
France has had one Le Pen or other (Marine’s father, Jean-Marie, who ran four times) on the president’s ballot since 1988. It’s always failed.
This week’s history may reflect on the moment when Marine Le Pen’s fate was sealed. As France’s first woman and first far-right president, she empowered the flow of anger. As the four loser of the French presidential election, he ultimately denied power through the contamination of corruption. Or as someone whose political career has skyrocketed, which has led to an early trembling halt due to her own miscalculation over a serious embezzlement scandal.
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