Doug Greenberg
David Purdham
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David Purdham
ESPN staff writers joined ESPN in 2014. March 18, 2008, 09:17 AM ET, Journalist covering the gambling industry
March Madness arrives with many storylines, two-time defending champion: freshman phenom: freshman phenom, starting as a first-year conference, a 100-1 long shot to win the third title as a 100-1 long shot.
When everyone furious, including North Carolina in the first four, the betting public is with Duke to win it all. More bets have been placed on the Blue Devils and more money have been placed this season to win the National Championship than other teams in multiple sportsbooks. The action against Duke hasn’t slowed down either, according to Sportsbook. Even if superstar freshman Cooper Flag returns from an ankle injury he struggled in the ACC tournament last week.
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However, the biggest bet reported so far was SEC Tournament Champion Florida. Betmgm reported that he won the national championship 9-1 from a Pennsylvania bettor on March 6th. It is one of the most popular betting events in American sports, and during this time of year, bigger bets are constantly ongoing.
According to the American Gaming Association, an estimated $3.1 billion will be wagered on men’s and women’s tournaments with US sportsbooks over the next three weeks, with the majority of that being wagered in the first four days of the tournament.
Here is the bet storyline we follow as the tournament begins:
The odds are accurate at the time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Red flag?
The Cooper Flag and the Duke Blue Devils attracted the most bets on multiple sportsbooks ahead of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, and staked most of the money. Photo by Lanceking/Getty Images
Duke won it all for the 2024-25 regular season as +900 favorites, heading into the campaign with 2024 top recruit Cooper Flag on the roster. Four months later, Blue Devils remained on top of the Sportsbook Odds Boards (+300 on ESPN BET), with the ninth Duke taking part in his first tournament with his betting favorite since 2019.
However, there is a cloud of uncertainty hanging from the devil after Flag collapses with an ankle injury during the ACC tournament. Head coach John Shayer told ESPN the goal is for Flag to play in Duke’s first tournament game on Friday.
It remains to be seen how Sportsbook will handicap Duke in that game or any of the following games, but it has had to work on how to handle futures market teams amid the Flag’s injury.
“We kept the odds of the NCAA Tournament and never beat them. When we saw the Cooper Flag’s injury, we dragged Duke from +325 to +375.”
Zanco estimates that FLAGG is worth almost “4.5-5” points in the spread if it’s completely healthy.
Duke has been a very popular play in the National Championship Futures market throughout the season before Flag’s injury, winning most of the tickets and money in several major sportsbooks, including ESPN BET, where the Blue Devils had 21% of bets and 16% of handles before the Blue Devils revealed their brackets on Sunday night. Since choosing Sunday, Duke has won 40% of the sportsbook majors. This includes a $28,125 stake with +320 odds.
DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avero describes Duke as “a pretty good danger” given the team’s popularity throughout the season.
“If Flag doesn’t play, there’s certainly no love lost for the sportsbook, but it certainly leaves the tournament,” he told ESPN. “So I hope he’ll be in that lineup and see if Duke can run it.”
The Loser Return
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0:45
Texas Longhorns NCAA Men’s Tournament Preview
Joe Lunardi breaks down the outlook for the NCAA tournament in Texas.
Whether it’s for brackets or game-by-game betting, picking a crazy March game has always proven to be extremely difficult, but last year’s festival added new wrinkles that make it even more difficult.
According to an ESPN survey, last season’s tournament covered the spreads in last season’s tournament. The resulting .597 coverage was the fourth highest in that period.
On the back, the 27 underdogs tied to the fifth-lowest person since 1985, have a .403 underdog coverage rate of the fourth-lowest in that period.
Avello views last year as “an extraordinary.” This is because men’s NCAA tournaments generally thrive, given that there is less pressure to win than their favorites, especially in the early rounds.
“Set a line in these games and remember that the point spread is an equalizer. So if your favorites are covered by the equalization line, it’s not that we were wrong, it’s that they had a good day or the other team had a bad day,” he said. “I think our lines are really solid at this time of the year. We have an entire basketball season and we were able to adjust and make these lines and make them a pretty strong team rating. So that’s not to say that the point spread is wrong, we’re heading for some kind of run.”
Bettors seem to expect bouncebacks from underdogs, at least in the opening round. BETMGM reports that all the money lines for the most bets per ticket are in the weak.
We also list Akron +13.5 (vs. Arizona) and High Point +8.5 (vs. Purdue) as the two most bet spreads.
The BET tracking app Pikkit says that the four most bet spreads per money are also aimed at the underdogs.
UC San Diego +2.5 (Michigan vs.)
High Point +8.5 (vs. purdue)
Drake +6.5 (vs. Missouri)
Akron +13.5 (vs. Arizona)
That makes more sense
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SEC PICK’EM: Everything about the Men and Women’s NCAA Tournament
The current crew of the SEC is making their choice for the biggest X-factor and upset teams, as well as teams with their sweet 16 predictions and a selection of national champions.
After the 2024-25 regular season that hyped the SEC as one of the best meetings in men’s college basketball history, 14 teams in the league created the NCAA tournament.
Auburn is the lead in the field. Auburn is +500, which is +500 to win the title at ESPN BET after opening the season at +2500. The Tigers quickly jumped to their favourite status in late November and retained that distinction for most of the season, but the current odds are actually the longest since mid-January.
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This is when his current second favorite (+380 at ESPN BET) won the national championship behind Duke due to a massive surge from Florida. This is the first time that Gators has been one of their top two titles favorites since 2014. Florida jumped significantly over the odds board than Auburn, opening the season at +6000 and taking part in conference play at +2200.
The Gators’ long odds and general popularity for most of the season have become a problem for the sportsbook. BETMGM lists Florida as one of its biggest debts (along with Duke and Michigan). ESPN BET reports 11% of BET and 10% of all handlebacking Florida, with 23% of bets since the bracket was revealed.
The Gators also retain the distinction that Florida and Houston are 28.5 points favorites in the first round contest, thus tying together as their biggest favorites in the first round. At 26-8, the Gators are the third best team against spreads on the field.
Notes on SEC
Alabama is ESPN BET’s fifth-backed team, attracting 6% of each to win the National Championship in bets and handles.
BetMgm placed a $1,000 bet in Missouri to win the national championship with 125-1 odds.
Following the release of the bracket, the Texas A&M was extended from +5000 to +7500, winning the national championship.
Odds and ending
Last season’s men’s NCAA tournament game averaged 145.0 points per game, a five-year high. Despite the increase in scores, 55.2% of tournament games last season were totaled. There have been over and over under each of the last five tournaments, and overall, 56% of tournament games are below the total during that period.
The best teams in the tournament field are against the spread
Robert Morris: 26-7 ATS (.788)
UC San Diego: 25-7 ATS (.781)
Florida: 26-8 ATS (.765)
Worst teams on the tournament field are opposed to the spread
Large odds after bracket move
UCONN moved from 50-1 to 100-1 and won the national championship on Sunday afternoon. The two-time defending champion Husky, who is the eighth seed in the Western Region, covers the spread in a record 12 consecutive NCAA tournament games.
Includes other bracket-related movements in the ESPN bed.
Improvement Team
The team that improved the power rating of Caesars Sportsbook’s odds maker Richard Zanko in the second half of the regular season:
Michigan: “Many people discount Spartans all year round, but they have that suffocating defense,” Zanko said. He said the Michigan title has been reduced from 40-1 to 15-1 in the last 60 days.
Kentucky: Zanko said the Wildcats, who were tested in combat, have recently attracted some attention from bettors. Kentucky will start the week around 40-1 and win the national championship.
Missouri: The Tigers’ title odds have moved from 200-1 to 80-1 on the Caesars Sportsbook in recent weeks. “They looked impressive below [coach] Dennis Gates, but they have little defense, so they could drop their costs in the tournament,” Zanko said.
