Choosing No. 6 seed and No. 11 seed is less talked about than the more famous No. 12-5th place upset in the men’s basketball tournament. However, it is more likely to occur. No. 12 Seeds won 55 games, but No. 11 seed pulled out an upset in the 61st.
The No. 11 seed has won the game in nine tournaments since 2020. Last year was an upset banner year, 11-6, when three No. 6 seeds went down in the first round. Duquesne defeated Oregon BYU, causing South Carolina and North Carolina to disrupt Texas Tech. Wolfpack ended up making the Final Four the No. 11 seed.
No. 6 seed should be upset again this year. I took two to win perfectly on the bracket, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the No. 11 seeds in the tournament won at least one game. Below, we’ll break down the matchups to determine which No. 11 seed has the best chance of eliciting upsetting.
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11 vs. 6 upset ranking
These are ordered from the least likely to the most likely.
4. SDSU/North Carolina around OleMiss
This is an 11-6 matchup that I don’t like with low seeds. I understand that people are offended that UNC has come in, but San Diego is one of my most underrated teams in this field.
I don’t like either the team or the Ole Miss. The Rebels are one of two-stage SEC teams that are likely to be able to win several games in the NCAA tournament. I wasn’t shocked when North Carolina beat Ole Miss, but that’s my lowest rating of 11-6.
3. Drake in Missouri
I really wanted to take Missouri and make it past my first weekend with my bracket. However, the Tigers received a tough first-round draw. The Tigers want to play very quickly, but Drake plays the four corners of the old North Carolina and milks eight minutes away if they are still allowed.
The key to this game is the first 10 minutes. The Bulldogs can’t fall behind early, as Drake succeeds at a slow pace. On the other hand, if Drake gets the lead, limiting possessions can make Missouri frustrating.
I took Missouri to win with the bracket, which was one of the most attractive matchups in the first round. The Bulldogs have created a men’s tournament for the third year in a row. The third time may be an appeal to Drake.
2. VCU on BYU
I upset BYU with the VCU bracket. I think the Rams are one of the most underrated teams in the field, but this is a great game for them.
What works well with the VCU is to create turnovers and shoot three. BYU ranks 207th in terms of sales and 243rd in terms of 3-pointer defense. The Cougars also shoot a lot of three-pointers, but VCU has one of the best boundary defenses in college basketball.
All tournaments are about matchups. BYU is a great team, but VCU has one of the best first round matchups among the lower seeds. I like the Rams getting upset.
1. Xavier/Texas, Illinois
There is a mystery, and there is Illinois. Sometimes, Illini looks like a sleeper team to beat the region. Otherwise, they look like a team that shouldn’t make a tournament.
I don’t know which Illinois will appear, but I think Illini got a bad draw in the face of a Texas vs Xavier winner. These were two bubble teams that I thought could win one or two games in a tournament.
The problem for Illini is that they love shooting three people, but they aren’t very good at it. Illinois ranks 316th and ranks with a 3-point percentage. If the three aren’t falling in the first round, no matter who Ilini faces, they’ll go home early. I like to play either Xavier or Texas, and I think either one will beat the volatile Illinois.
