Michael Kugelman
Foreign Policy Analyst
Press Information Bureau
India’s pitch for close partnership with China suggests improvements in bilateral relations
In a recent interview, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke positively about India’s relationship with longtime rival China. He said normalcy returned to the disputed India-China border and sought stronger bonds.
These are surprising comments as tensions have been high since the troubling border collision in the northern Ladakh region in 2020. It is the most deadly since the 1962 war.
Mao Zedong, a spokeswoman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, expressed his gratitude for Modi’s words and declared, “The two countries should be partners who contribute to each other’s success.”
Modi’s pitch for close partnerships is actually not as big a leap as it looks, given recent improvements in bilateral relations. But relationships remain tense, and for many to enjoy true reconciliation, many need to be isolated and more broadly geopolitical.
There are many bright spots in the ties between India and China.
Bilateral trade is consistently robust. Even after the Ladakh clash, China was India’s top trading partner. They work in multilateral cooperation, from BRICS, a major alliance of developing countries, to infrastructure investment banks in Asia. They share their interest in advancing non-Western economic models, countering Islamist terrorism and rejecting what they consider our moral crusades.
Even after the Ladakh clashes tied to their lowest level in decades, the two troops continued to talk at high levels, bringing a deal to resume border patrols in October. Modi met with Chinese national president Xi Jinping that month at the BRICS summit in Russia, and they pledged further cooperation. In January, both parties agreed to resume direct flights.
Still, the relationship is problematic.
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India-China relations have been strained since 2020 clashing along the disputed border
Each side has close security ties with its opponents’ main competitors, India, the US and Pakistan.
China is opposed to India’s policy in the conflict-Kashmir region. Beijing is irritating the ambitions of India’s great powers by blocking membership in influential groups such as nuclear supplier groups and permanent members of the UN Security Council.
China has a large naval presence in India’s wider sea backyards and its only overseas military base.
The Belt and Road Initiative, a connectivity corridor that Beijing expanded its footprint in its Indian neighborhood, was defied defied by Delhi to pass through territory in India.
Meanwhile, India is deepening its ties with Taiwan. Taiwan sees China as a state of rebellion. It will be hosted by the exiled Tibetan leader, the Dalai Lama. Beijing considers him a dangerous separatist.
India is negotiating the sale of supersonic missiles to Southeast Asian states that can be used to block China’s provocation in the South China Sea. China believes it is trying to counter its several global forums to which India belongs, such as the Indo-Pacific Square and the Economic Corridors of Middle Eastern Europe.
There are several signs to look at to get a better sense of the future trajectory of the relationship.
The first is border consultations. A 2,100 miles (3,380km) miles – a frontier of length – an area equal to the size of Greece – remains contested.
The situation at borders is the greatest true of relationships. The Ladakh conflict shattered trust. Last year’s patrol agreement helped restore it. This will work well for the relationship if both parties can generate more measures of confidence structure.
High levels of engagement in the future are also important. When Modi and XI meet this year, who have a premium on personal diplomacy, this will strengthen the recent momentum in bilateral relations. They will have the opportunity to be bystanders at the G20 in July, November, and the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) Leader Summit later this year.
Another important sign is Chinese investment. This brings important capital to India’s major industries, from manufacturing to renewables, making India’s $850 billion (£65.7 billion) trade deficit easier with China.
Such an increase in investment would give India a timely economic boost and China will increase access to the world’s fastest growing major economy. Stronger commercial cooperation provides more incentives to curb wider tensions.
Regional and global developments are also worth seeing.
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Modi, Putin and Xi at the BRICS summit held in Kazan last year
Four India’s neighbors — Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka — have recently been appointed with a new leader, who is more of a parent than their predecessor. But so far, they have tried to balance their connections with Beijing and Delhi, not affiliated with China.
If this continues, Delhi’s concerns about Beijing’s impact in India’s neighbourhood could be reduced slightly. Furthermore, if China is pulled back from a growing partnership with Indian best friend Russia, and ends the war in Ukraine, which has deepened Moscow’s dependence on Beijing, a more likely outcome could help ties with India.
Trump’s factors are also drawing a lot.
President Donald Trump hopes to ease tensions with Beijing despite slapping tariffs in China.
If he is doing so, if he fears that Delhi is not committed to helping Washington counter China, India would want to ensure that its own relationship with China is in a better place.
Furthermore, given the impending mutual tariff policy of Trump has hit India hard, and the average tariff difference between the US and India of 10%, India can have another incentive to strengthen commercial cooperation with Beijing.
India and China are two large Asian countries, both of which consider themselves a proud civilised nation.
They are natural competitors. However, recent positive developments in tie, coupled with the possibility of advancements on both sides in other aspects, can lead to more stability in relations, making Modi’s language of reconciliation not mere rhetoric.
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