“Importantly, poverty in resource-rich, vulnerable countries (including major powers like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria) is expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points from 2022-27, making it the only group in areas that will increase poverty rates.”
The World Bank on Thursday said poverty in Nigeria would increase by 3.6 percentage points over the next five years until 2027.
The bank made the disclosure in the African Pulse Report, released at the ongoing spring conference of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, DC, USA.
The report states that non-resource-rich countries are expected to continue to reduce poverty faster than resource-rich countries, and that despite financial pressure, resource-rich countries will increase overall, as agricultural prices are higher.
“On the other hand, resource-rich countries are not expected to grow at the same rate given the slower oil prices. As a result, resource-rich countries are expected to make less progress in terms of poverty reduction (Figure 1.10).
“Importantly, poverty in resource-rich, vulnerable countries (including major powers like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria) is expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points from 2022-27, making it the only group in areas that will increase poverty rates.”
In separate memos included in the report, the World Bank warned that its findings call for “urgent improvements in service delivery in countries with rapidly expanding populations such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria.”
According to the report, this development follows an established pattern, which means that resource wealth combined with vulnerability or conflict is associated with an average poverty rate of 46% in 2024, 13 percentage points above non-flagier resource-rich countries. Meanwhile, non-resource-rich, non-surprising countries have found the greatest benefits of poverty reduction since 2000, and by 2010 they have completely filled the poverty gap with other non-resource-rich countries.
The impact of urbanization
While most of Africa’s population and its highest levels of poverty are seen in rural areas, the World Bank said rapid urbanization could accelerate poverty reduction under appropriate conditions.
“From 2010 to 2019, poverty reduction was primarily driven by urbanization rather than a significant reduction in rural or urban poverty. In 2020, only 41% of the continent was urbanized, but the urban population is projected to exceed 238 million, exceeding the rural population.”
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This rapid growth brings opportunities for rural poor people who are looking to improve their livelihoods through migration, he added.
However, the success of this transition will depend on the urban capacity to provide the infrastructure, services and employment opportunities needed to support population growth.
In 2018, reports emerged that Nigeria had the highest number of people living in extreme poverty, and that Nigerians had surpassed India as a country that is said to live on less than $1.90 a day.
Since then, the government has advocated for the relief of people from poverty despite the deterioration in living conditions in most parts of the country.
Since he assumed power, President Bora Tinubu has introduced massive socioeconomic reforms, which he said was aimed at securing the economy and redirecting it to a path of growth – elimination of fuel subsidies, unifying exchange rates, and more.
The ripple effects of the policy are severe for many Nigerians, sparking hunger protests across sections of the country amid rising food prices and miscellaneous inflationary pressures.
