Polish presidential election Karol Nawrocki plays a largely ritual role, but his impact on the country’s politics over the next five years may be severe.
Now Rocky’s supporters of the opposition to the National Conservative Law and Justice (PIS) felt revitalized after losing power to the pro-EU coalition of Donald Task 18 months ago.
They see his success in the vote on Sunday – at a margin of 50.9%-40.1% over liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Truzaskovsky – as a first step into power.
Polish presidents, limited to foreign and defence policies, can propose and reject bills. Task’s government lacks sufficient parliamentary majority to overturn the presidential veto.
Retiring conservative president Andrze Duda, using his blocking powers to prevent the Prime Minister from submitting many of his major campaign promises.
These include legalizing civil partnerships, such as same-sex relationships, accelerated development of onshore wind farms, and eliminating political influences from the judiciary.
A socially conservative 42-year-old historian, Nawrocki is widely expected to be a tougher opponent for Tusk than Duda. We believe the resulting paralysis could tempt the government to hold early elections before the fall 2027 deadline.
“In all possibilities, that would mean an early election, because he rejects any laws that the government passes,” Konstanty Gebert, a journalist for the weekly magazine Kultura Liberalna, told the BBC.
“In the constitution, early elections are difficult if the government doesn’t want them, but if they can’t rule from defeat to defeat, they may decide they are the lower evil,” he explained.
Task’s government has a majority of parliament, so as long as the coalition does not break, it can remain in office until fall 2027.
The union includes the conservative People’s Party, the centralists and the left. This is an important reason why Tusk has not reached agreement on issues such as abortion and civic partnerships.
Alternatively, the government could determine that early elections were the best interests.
Nawrocki is a proud Polish patriot who is a conservative Catholic who opposes illegal migration, expands his legal rights to people with same-sex relationships, and liberalizes the country’s strict abortion laws.
He believes that the vision of the task of solidifying Poland in the mainstream of the EU by relying on good relations with Brussels, Berlin and Paris is against Poland’s national interests. These interests, he says, are doing their best by standing up to Germany when their opinions diverge and not giving Brussels any more empowerment. Nawrocki is opposed to EU climate proposals such as green trading. This is because they say limiting greenhouse gas emissions is harmful to small Polish farmers.
Nawrocki supports ongoing military and humanitarian support for neighboring Ukraine. Poland has an international hub for supplies to Kyiv. However, he does not believe that while Ukraine joins the NATO or the EU, Russian attacks continue to increase Poland’s security.
He is a supporter of US President Donald Trump and criticised the approach that Ukrainian President Voldymi Zelensky took while dressing down his infamous oval office. Homeland Security Director Christie Noem flew to Poland a few days before the election, supporting the sharp amateur boxer Nau Rocky, calling him a “strong” leader like Trump.
The election results were similar to the indication that the country’s political polarization had not been eased, similar to the DUDA won against Trzaskowski five years ago.
In an early victory speech given to him a razor-thin victory shortly after the exit vote ended on Sunday night, Trzaskowski vowed to be the president of all Poles.
At the same time, Now Rocky made no such promise. Instead, he told his supporters that his campaign united the “patriotic camp” in Poland. Neither candidate inspires confidence that they would make a constructive effort to reach the other side.
The long-term conflict between the two political groups that have dominated Polish politics for 20 years could support increased support for opposition parties, such as the far-right coalition and the difficult left.
Slau Mirmentzen, the coalition’s young libertarian candidate, continued the group’s recent profits, taking third place in the first round of the presidential election. Will it be able to increase its support and be persuaded to join the future PIS-led government?
Another alliance leader, Krzysztof Bosak, denied the possibility of the latter on Monday, saying that the parties would not approach as they are fighting for the same voters.
