Adam Easton
Warsaw correspondent, BBC News
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Presidential candidate Rafal Truzaskovsky claimed early victory, but one exit poll suggests that his victory margin is within the wrong range.
The second exit vote in Poland’s presidential election shows that conservative historian Karol Naulocky is moving ahead with 50.7% of the 49.3% votes against Warsaw’s liberal mayor Rafal Truzaskovsky.
The second exit vote intuitively reversed the results of the exit vote, which were published shortly after the vote ended.
The official results are expected to be released Monday morning, the head of the state election commission said.
Trzaskowski had already claimed victory after the initial exit poll showed he was the winner.
“I won,” he said. “We won, but the phrase ‘Razor’s Edge’ will forever enter Polish language and politics,” he added.
His wife, Margolzata, jokingly told the crowd, “I’m having a heart attack.”
Trzaskowski has promised to reach out to voters who supported the other party. I will be the president of all Polish women and men,” he said.
Meanwhile, Nawrocki told his supporters after the results of the initial exit polls that it was too close to call.
“Don’t lose hope for this night. We win the night. The difference is minimal. I think tomorrow I’ll wake up with President Karol Nowrocky,” he said.
The Polish president has been a largely ritual role that has had a limited influence on foreign policy and defense, but they can reject the law, and the pro-council government of Donald Task lacks sufficient parliamentary majority to overturn it.
The current conservative incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, used his powers to prevent Task from offering major campaign promises, including removing political influence from the judiciary and liberalizing the country’s strict abortion laws.
If Trzaskowski’s victory is removed and it is confirmed that Tusk can solidify Poland’s position in the European mainstream.
But Tusk also faces opposition from within his own coalition from the party of conservative people on issues such as abortion and legalization of civil partnerships.
The victory of national conservative Karol Nowrocky, supported by the Opposition Law and Justice (PIS) Party, would mean an ongoing conflict between the government and the president.
It will also reinvigorate the PIS, which lost power 18 months ago and gave the party the belief that they could win parliamentary elections in 2027.
Both candidates support continued support for neighboring Ukraine, but Naulockey says he is currently opposed to NATO and the EU entry for now while Russia continues its offensive war.
Both men have different approaches to the EU. Former European Minister Trzaskowski supports the vision of the Polish task at the heart of Europe’s mainstream, and influences decisions through strong relations between Germany and France.
As a deputy leader of Tusk’s Civic Platform, he has been Warsaw mayor since 2018.
He is the son of a well-known Polish jazz pianist, who speaks several languages and is viewed by some voters as a member of the liberal elite of the country, who has no contact with ordinary Poles.
According to CBOS polling firms, Trzaskowski’s typical voters are between 30 and 40 years old, with left-liberal views and relatively wealthy, open to LGBTQ+ and immigrant rights. They tend to live in big cities and have a positive view of the EU.
Some voters said they tried to “artificially” present themselves as patriotism-loving candidates. During the campaign, he held a much tighter boundary against the illegal migration that Tusk began to do before gaining power in 2023, and he volunteered to do basic military training.
Nawrocki, 42, supports the powerful sovereign Poland and does not want the country to give more power to Brussels. He opposes the EU’s climate and migration policy. He is a conservative Catholic who prioritizes traditional family values.
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He was relatively unknown nationwide before being selected as their “unofficial” candidate by the opposition PIS.
A passionate amateur boxer and soccer player, he often posted images of himself exercising, allowing Piss to present him as a strong candidate to stand up to the national interests of ordinary Poles and the country.
A fan of President Donald Trump, he flew to Washington during the campaign and took a photo of him giving a thumbs up with the US president in his oval office for a very short meeting.
During the campaign, he was attacked by the government and the media for not being morally suited to the country’s president, but the allegations did not reduce his support in the last week of the campaign.
During the presidential debate, Now Rocky said, like most Paul, he owned one apartment. It turned out to be a lie.
Nawrocki was accused of using vulnerable elderly people to significantly discount his council flat in exchange for an unmet care promise. Following the scandal, Nowrocky said he will donate flats to charities but will always deny the charges.
Polish news website onet.pl accused Nowrocky of arranging sex workers for her guests when she worked as a security guard at a luxurious grand hotel in Sopot Resort, a seaside resort in the Baltic Sea.
The story was based on anonymous sources, but onet.pl said the witness sworn to repeat the claims in court under oath. Nawrocki called the story a pack of lies and said he would sue the website.
His enemies portrayed him as a football hooligan who admired gangsters and neo-Nazi ultras. Nawrocki did not deny joining Hooligan Brawls as young men, calling them “noble battles.” He also states that these allegations are attempts to paint his reputation.
Some Now Rocky voters said they didn’t believe in a particular story about him, saying they were the invention of mainstream Trzaskowski-Supporting media.
