Rare earth minerals are important, experts say, but so are copper: NPR

You’ve probably heard a lot about rare earth materials over the past few weeks thanks to President Trump’s stagnant efforts to secure a mineral trade with Ukraine and his story of Greenland’s annexation. These important materials fuel the growing renewable energy and electric vehicle industry. However, many experts warn that a shortage of another important metal used in electronics, wiring, and even plumbing can be of concern.

Copper is even more important to the nation’s shift towards a more environmentally friendly and more efficient economy than rare elements such as neodymium and praseodymium. Copper has been mined for thousands of years, but demand for it has skyrocketed over the past 20 years, with prices rising nearly 75% since 2020.

But despite its importance, the world’s largest copper mines in regions such as Chile, Peru and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are struggling to meet demand amidst global shortages, whilst growing environmental concerns.

Cassandra Cummings, CEO of New Jersey-based Thomas Instrumentation, had to consider the rapid rise in copper that enters circuit boards and other electronic components that family-owned businesses manufacture for commercial customers.

She explains that the microchips used contain rare earth minerals, but about 90% of the completed circuit board is copper. For example, consider an LED. The rare earth element terbium makes them shine green, but “it’s only a small portion compared to the amount of copper on the board,” she says. “But if there is no copper, if the supplier doesn’t have copper, then there’s no board.”

The rise in copper costs in recent years has significantly increased the prices of completed boards for Thomas Instrumation customers. “I apologize, but we have to raise the price,” Cummings says.

It’s just a problem that gets worse. Last year’s report by S&P Global denounced shortfalls on many issues, including lack of investment in new explorations and mines, as the industry focuses on short-term returns.

BHP, an Australia-based Melbourne, says that existing mines will produce about 15% less copper than 2024 and 2035. The average grade of ore has declined by about 40% since 1991, BHP says.

“Most of the high-quality ones are already mined,” says Mike McKibben, an associate professor of geology at the University of California, Riverside. “So we have to chase down the material that is lower and lower,” he says.

It’s a recipe for higher prices and unmet demand, according to Shon Hiatt, a business professor at the University of Southern California. “We expect to need as much copper as all of the copper produced so far over the next 20 years,” he says.

The capacity of copper to be recycled plays an important role in mitigating some supply challenges, but that is not sufficient. Only about a third of US copper supply comes from recycled materials.

The US already imports half of the copper it consumes from countries including Canada and Mexico. Like aluminum and steel, copper is poised to be wiped out by the White House trade war. Last month, the president ordered an investigation into copper imports from Canada, with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick confirming that Trump will add copper to 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.

Opening a new mine is not easy. Last year, China finally broke the ground at Afghanistan’s copper mine after 16 years of delay. According to Simon Jowitt, a geologist and director of the Nevada Mines and Geology Bureau, there are environmental and social concerns and often lengthy permitting processes in the United States.

“Historically, mining hasn’t had a good reputation for doing the right thing in the environment…particularly large open-pit mines like Arizona, large open-pit mines like Utah here in Nevada,” he says.

Stuart Burgess, chairman and co-founder of Utah-based Burgex Mining Consultants Sandy, says his team is “ground boots” that are physically stake in the company’s new mining claims. “There’s a lot of interest in copper, especially here in the US,” he says.

He points out that it takes four times more copper to make gas-powered copper for electric vehicles, and that charging all of these EVs requires a massive upgrade to the power grid, which will require more strain on the demand side of the copper equation. “If you take all the known deposits in the world that are proven… you’ll probably meet half of that demand by 2050,” he says.

There are ways to squeeze efficiency, but only on margins, Burgess says. “Everyone can look for that magical black box and put one copper element in it. It doesn’t exist,” he says.

However, it could take more than a decade to develop new copper sources into productive mines, Jowitt said. Still, there is no guarantee. For example, consider the planned resolution copper mine in Arizona. This has been caught up in more than a decade of legal and political battles drawn by three presidents over concerns expressed by the state’s Native American tribes. Another planned copper mine in Arizona and two copper mines in Minnesota are significantly behind.

There is no resolution mineral on the surface. You can strip-mean there, but Burgess says it’s 6,000 feet underground, where the cost of extracting copper is “3-4 times more expensive.”

Even if a new mine could be opened, the US has only two operating copper smelters to process raw ore. One is in Arizona and the other in Utah. They “already run at capacity,” Jowitt says.

“There’s far more copper possibilities here, but we don’t have enough smelting capabilities,” he says. “Even if a new mine comes online, the problem is where we handle it.”

Canada has been the answer up until now, but if the current trade war gets even hotter, it could easily be suspended, he worries.

“We’re losing our friendship with places where we could actually do copper processing,” Jowitt says. “You have a mine, but you need a middle step before you start putting that copper in a copper wiring, an electric car and putting it in what you want to put in it.”