According to the German Secretary of Defense, members of Western Alliance NATO will need to prepare for the possibility of an attack from Russia within the next four years.
General Carsten Breuer told the BBC that Russia produces hundreds of tanks a year. Many of them said they could be used to attack members of the NATO Baltic countries before 2029.
He also argued that NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Agency, remains unified in the war in Ukraine despite differences of opinion expressed recently by both Hungary and Slovakia.
General Breuer was talking about the bystanders of Shangri-la Dialogue, a Singapore defense summit hosted by the think tank Institute for International Strategic Studies.
His comments come a few weeks ago to the summit of NATO countries in The Hague, where defence budgets are expected to be discussed, among other topics.
General Breuer said NATO faces a “very serious threat” from Russia.
At this point, Russia has built its troops to a “huge degree” and has produced around 1,500 major combat tanks each year.
“Not all tanks go [the war in] Ukraine, but it also goes to stocks and new military structures that always face the west,” he said.
Russia also produced 4 million rounds of 152mm artillery bullets in 2024, not all of which went to Ukraine, Gen Breuer added.
“There’s an intention, there’s a stock accumulation,” he said, for the possibility of a future attack on NATO’s Baltic members.
“This is what analysts are valuing. In 2029. So we need to be ready by 2029… Now ask me, is this a guarantee not earlier than 2029? No, it’s not so, so we have to be able to fight tonight.”
Many have long feared attacks on NATO states as it could spark a bigger war between Russia and the US, the main members of NATO. Under Article 5 of the NATO Agreement, an attack on a Member State means that other members must reach their defense.
General Bruer singled out the so-called Swarki Gap, a region adjacent to Lithuania, Poland, Russia and Belarus.
“The Baltic countries are really exposed to Russians, right? And you’re there, you really feel this… in the discussions we have there,” he said.
The Estonians have given the analogy of “feeling the heat, seeing the flames, seeing the smell of smoke,” and approaching a wildfire, but in Germany, he said, “probably see a little smoke on the horizon.”
General Breuer said this gave a different perspective on the threat of a possible Russian attack among European states.
Russia’s view of the Ukrainian war was different from that of the West, he said, “we are trying to find a way to our line of defense and testing it,” as Moscow views the war as a more “continuum” in a larger conflict with NATO.
He cited recent attacks on submarine cables in the Baltic Sea, cyberattacks on European public transport, and unidentified drones discovered through German power plants and other infrastructure.
Therefore, General Breuer argued that members of NATO should build armies again. “All we have to do now is really leaning in and telling everyone. Just a little ramp up… we need it, so we’ll go into it more. We can protect ourselves and therefore build deterrent.”
Given the close relationship between Hungary, Slovakia and Moscow, when asked by the BBC about NATO unity, General Brewer argued that the alliance is still healthy.
He pointed to the Finland and Sweden’s decision to join NATO shortly after the start of the Ukrainian War. “I have never seen the unity as it is now,” he said among state and military leaders.
“They all understand the threats that are approaching NATO. They all understand that we must develop a direction of deterrence, in the direction of collective defense. This is clear to everyone. There is urgency.”
General Bruer’s remarks are yet another sign of a major change in German defense and attitudes towards Russia.
Like many Western countries, including the UK, they have reduced their investment in the military over the years.
However, there is growing awareness of the need to reverse this, and even Green Party has taken part in a recent poll to lift restrictions on German defence spending.
But as Western military and political leaders say they are ready for battle, questions remain as to whether this is the case of ambitions that overtakes reality.
It will take years for European military industrial bases to speed up to match Russia’s protruding weapons size.
The US is also developing, rather than building up, a commitment to defence towards Europe to focus on the Indo-Pacific.
