Steve Rosenberg
Russian Editor
Pavel Bednikov/Pool/AFP via Getty
It’s 2:30am.
Within the walls of the Kremlin, I wander alone through vast lots of land that I have failed to find my way.
Find a checkpoint, approach it, and view your passport.
“Nyet Vykhoda!” [“No exit!”] Reply to the guard. He points in the opposite direction.
I’ll go back and eventually come to another checkpoint.
“I won’t go outside!” Sentry says.
I got lost. Inside the Kremlin. Late at night.
It’s like being in a John Le Carré novel.
It was quite the night. We arrived at 5pm. With a small group of journalists, I was invited to an “event with President Putin.” What kind of event? I’m not going to start with the Kremlin. In the end we were told that Vladimir Putin was asking the question.
Eight hours later, the president stepped into the Malachite Hall at the Grand Kremlin Palace and sat at his desk.
However, there have been changes to the plan. There will be no press conferences. There are no questions. Instead, Putin, who lives on Russian television, issued a statement proposing a direct meeting between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.
The event is over, and I am leaving the Kremlin Palace, but heading in the wrong direction. Finally, I find the right exit, hushed my eyes and take the taxi home.
This was the beginning of what turned out to be a real roller coaster for two weeks. What began with the Kremlin statement late at night continued with peace talks in Turkey and a two-hour call between Putin and Donald Trump.
But at the end of that, are we approaching peace in Ukraine?
I don’t feel that.
Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
Trump has referred to his “very close relationship” with Putin in the past, but recently he has wondered whether he’s “just smacking me” in peace talks.
There are more talks about the possibility of future “memorandums” on “future peace possibilities,” but it all sounds rather vague.
For now, the fight continues.
Russia still refuses to register for an unconditional, comprehensive ceasefire. They have no intention of returning the lands in Ukrainian that they claimed to have been seized, occupied and annexed. On the contrary, it drives more.
Today, the peace process in Ukraine is similar to being lost in the Kremlin late at night.
It’s difficult to see the exit.
Kremlin Side Steps
Still, the past two weeks have revealed a lot.
First, how will Russia neutralize potential threats and pressure points?
Kremlin critics put this in another way: how Russia plays.
On May 10th (hours before I got lost in the Kremlin), after a call with Donald Trump, European leaders issued an ultimatum to President Putin. In two days, agree to an unconditional long-term ceasefire in Ukraine or crush new sanctions.
Since March, the Trump administration has urged Russia and Ukraine to accept a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire. Kiev agreed. That’s not the case in Moscow.
The Kremlin leader avoided the European ultimatum with a counter-proposition to in-person talks in Türkiye. The idea was greeted with skepticism across Ukraine and across Europe. But it was enough to appease Trump and convince him that Russia was serious about wanting peace. He was all for meetings. “Smashing” new sanctions have been delayed.
Prior to the Istanbul meeting on May 16th, President Trump gave the impression that Vladimir Putin might be present. The Kremlin leader was not so, instead sent a relatively low-level delegation who once again rejected the idea of a long-term ceasefire. But again, the modest outcome of the consultation was sufficient to convince the US President that progress was being made.
Then, on May 19th, Trump Putin called me.
By the end of that, Russia had not yet agreed to an immediate, comprehensive halt of hostilities. Instead, President Trump said, “Russia and Ukraine will soon begin negotiations for a ceasefire and, more importantly, an end to the war.”
But Moscow has already raised doubts about whether it will sign a future peace treaty with Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky. For a year, Russian authorities have been trying to outlaw Ukrainian president since the end of his presidency. However, the Ukrainian constitution prohibits the retention of wartime elections.
And the reason for Ukraine’s martial law is Russia’s invasion.
“Will Russia sit down and sign a peace agreement with President Zelensky?” I asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday.
“You’re putting your cart in front of the horse,” replied Mr. Lavrov. “We need to make a deal first. When that’s agreed, we’ll decide. But as President Putin said many times, President Zelensky says he has no legitimacy… Perhaps the best option is a new election…”
Watch: Steve Rosenberg asks Sergei Lavrov: Is Russia ready to sign a deal with Zelensky?
Confident Russia
Russian media concluded that after two weeks of diplomacy, Moscow had strengthened its hands.
“Russia won the latest round of global poker,” he declared the Izvestia newspaper last week.
“Donald Trump’s attitude is not that good for Moscow,” wrote Kommersant. “In effect, he supported Russia’s stance of “first discussion, later ceasefire” and refused to tighten sanctions against Russia. ”
A social scientist told Kommersant: “For now, at least for now, Donald Trump is an ideological partner on a particular issue. His views are much closer to those of Russia than in Europe,” he said.
And the Ultra Pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda had this message to European leaders.
“You have been warned. You must not give threats or ultimatums to the bear’s face, and do not attempt to impose conditions on consultations that have nothing to do with you.
“Sit in the lobby and smoke the smell of a new world order.”
Moscow’s confidence is also supported by the belief that Ukraine retains its initiative on the battlefield.
Passive playing cards
In 2023, Donald Trump said that if he wins the presidency, “I’ll settle the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine… I’ll make them both. I know Zelensky, I’ll be done within 24 hours.”
Trump has been in the oval office for over four months, but the “terrifying war” continues.
In rare cases, he publicly rebuked the Kremlin and threatened further sanctions. Last month he said: “… There was no reason Putin would fire missiles in civilian areas, cities, or towns over the past few days. Maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he just taps me and has to deal with it differently through ‘banks’ or ‘secondary survivors’.”
However, there was no follow-through. The US president appears to be reluctant to ratchet pressure on the Kremlin, and instead appears to signal Moscow to be eager to restart US-Russia relations.
Ukrainian President’s Office via Getty Images
Trump and Zelensky spoke face-to-face about their side-job at Pope Francis’ funeral held in the Vatican in April.
Following the president’s phone conversation, Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov told journalists: [bilateral] relationship. Trump considers Russia to be one of America’s most important partners in trade and economic issues. ”
President Trump appears to be determined to push for a reconciliation with Russia no matter what happens in Ukraine.
And Moscow feels that.
“President Trump has not linked the ongoing US-Russia dialogue with the Ukrainian peace process,” the headline of the Russian government’s paper Rosiskaya Gazeta this week.
That doesn’t mean that the Kremlin has completely ruled out the risk of additional restrictions. The US Senate is threatening severe new sanctions against Russia if Moscow is not serious about diplomacy.
Up to this point, the Kremlin could deflect or evacuate under any pressure to compromise and make concessions regarding the war with Ukraine.
It seems he’s certain he’ll continue to do so.
