As Secretary of State Marco Rubio puts it, “The ball is currently in the Russian courts.” This is an important moment.
The joint statement from the US and Ukraine includes some key lines after a long day of consultations in Jeddah, and perhaps nothing more important.
Over the past few weeks, we have heard a lot about what Donald Trump is hoping for Ukraine and what blunt instruments are being used to bend Kiev to its will.
Now, it seems that it’s time to test Russian intentions in public.
Donald Trump’s deal with Vladimir Putin has been engulfed in uncertainty up until now, with no clear signs of the balancing pressure exerted on Volodymyr Zelensky.
Tuesday’s US-Ukrainian statement does not mean that Trump suddenly changed his song towards Zelensky. What theirs is a troublesome relationship born out of years of mutual distrust.
But the ugly cloud cloud generated by that strange oval office encounter 11 days ago may begin to dissipate as the real business of peacemaking progresses.
After a halt that lasted just a few days, with the US sharing of intelligence news and immediate resumption of security assistance to Ukraine, Russia may now be under pressure.
These are still early days, and details may be resolved in subsequent negotiations.
The statement speaks of “substantial details” about the enduring purpose of the war and the assurances that Ukraine can expect “for long-term security and prosperity.”
However, the wording in the final paragraph reflects Washington’s view that safety and prosperity can be achieved through the conclusions of a highly debated important mineral trade, rather than the concrete military assurances that Kiev has sought.
Zelensky and Trump say they agreed to launch the deal “as soon as possible.” The way purely commercial arrangements can prevent hostile Russian actions in the future is something that must still be fleshed out.
The statement also states that the Ukrainian delegation “repeated involvement of European partners in the peace process,” but does not shed light on how Washington views potential parameters of European involvement.
Conferences in Saudi Arabia feel like a timely reset after recent turbulence. That doesn’t mean that the US and Ukraine are in perfect alignment in the future.
If President Zelensky had doubts, he now knows that he is dealing with a whimsical and unstable US president whose past loyalty and traditional diplomatic actions have little meaning.
He does what he can to keep the ball in the Russian courts, but he knows that it has all the chances that it could return to him.
