Abdujalil Abdurasulov
Kyiv’s BBC News
BBC Visual Journalism TeamRussian Defense Ministry
Russia has tried to open the third front in eastern Ukraine
Overnight Russian drone and missile attacks have reached record levels in Ukraine, but on the ground, the troops claim the interests of the territory.
Last month, Russian troops seized 556 square kilometers (215 square miles) according to Ukraine’s open source deep state surveillance website. It is a region four times the size of Liverpool and is about the same size as the city of Chicago.
Russia’s goal is to cut off supply routes used by Ukrainian forces in the eastern region and create a buffer zone within Ukraine’s northern border.
However, the progress remains relatively slow. At this rate, it will take more than 70 years to win the national championship.
Most Russian attacks are concentrated in three areas.
The Samui region, adjacent to Russia in the northeast, is two cities in the eastern part of Pokrovsk and Kostiantinibka, located on the third front of Pokrovsk.
The Russian army managed to push about 10-12km (6-7.5 miles) deep into the Smie region, but its progress halted in the face of intense resistance.
Vladimir Putin says he wants to create a buffer zone to protect Russian territory after Ukrainian forces captured Swas in Kursk’s territory last summer. The Russians, with the help of North Korean troops and ammunition, eventually kicked them out.
The Russians then traveled to Ukraine, but soon got stuck in the battle over a small border village. Without major reinforcements, it is unlikely that Russian troops would push further here.
Another northern region where Russian troops reportedly crossed the state’s borders is Kalkiv. Last week they insisted on capturing border villages, but without committing substantial resources, they rarely get any further benefits.
Military observers say these operations are intended to force Ukraine to thin its troops along the entire 1,200 km long frontline, and thus to divert the troops from major regions.
One of these frontline areas is Pokrovsk, a strategic hub in eastern Ukraine that Moscow has been trying to capture for over two years. According to Ukrainian Army Secretary Oleksandr Silsky, Russia concentrates around 111,000 troops in the area.
Russians rarely launch large-scale attacks, says Artem Pribylnov Naka from the 155th Brigade in Ukraine, stationed near Pokrovsk.
Large movements of military and armored vehicles are quickly detected and destroyed by drones. Instead, Privirnov says the Russians rely on a small group of infantry forces who mercilessly attack Ukrainian status.
As some call it, this kind of “creeping attack” aims to exhaust Kiev’s resources until an endless wave of Russian soldiers finally drives Ukrainians out of their own position. But the prices they pay are horribly high.
Ukrainian general staff have Russian casualties placed over 1,000 soldiers a day. The BBC cannot independently verify these numbers, but it shows the huge losses Russia is suffering from.
The purpose of Russia in eastern Ukraine is to create a “cauldron” and semi-envelope the Ukrainians around Pokrovsk and Kostiantinibka, then retreat.
The Russian army is currently trying to sway the area between these two cities and create a “bridgehead that can attack Pokrovsk or Kostiantinibka,” says Maj Viktor Trehubov, a spokesman for the operational interwar strategy group for Khortytsya, which coordinates troops in the eastern Ukrainians.
A breakthrough here is not considered to be highly likely. Russia’s advance between Kostiantinivka and Pokrovsk has already slowed down, and previous attempts to push from the other side have stagnated.
The biggest Russian interest in recent weeks has been further west of Pokrovsk, in what Ukrainian forces call the direction of Novopabribsk.
Military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets says the Moscow operation was the most threatening to Ukraine as its defenses “collapse” and allowed Russians to advance up to 10 km a day.
Their movement was so rapid that Russian military bloggers even claimed that their troops had reached the adjacent Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time since the invasion began.
Ukrainian military officials denied these claims, saying that a small group of Russian soldiers entered a village in the Dnipropetrovsk region and photographed them with the Russian flag, but were soon “excluded.” However, the War Institute shows that the Russian troops are still operating there.
Maj Trehubov argues that the region has little strategic advantages for the Russian military, and that their attacks are instead motivated by political targets.
Further advances into the Dnipropetrovsk region may be suitable for propaganda messaging, but it requires greater resources currently tied up by Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka.
Nevertheless, Ukrainians are facing increased pressure on the frontlines as Russian forces constantly try to cut off supply lines with drone attacks.
“The route I used two months ago is no longer available. It’s not during the day or at night,” Sgt Viktor Pyasetskyi, a staff member of Ukrainian 93rd Brigade stationed near Kostyantynivka, told the BBC over the phone.
As a result, it was extremely complicated and slow to deliver food and ammunition, evacuating wounded troops and spinning frontline troops.
Russian drones like the Gerbera can fly for hundreds of kilometers to reach places that were previously considered relatively safe.
Their goal is not only to eliminate the line of defense, but also to “terrorize the population,” says staff member Sgt Pyasetskiy. “They systematically destroy civilian buildings. They want to undermine our belief in Ukraine’s ability to undermine morale and stop the Russians.”
As he spoke, he was interrupted by the roar of a drone. Shortly afterwards, there were reports of an apartment block being attacked. It was later confirmed that the sergeant had survived.
