With the help of mathematical models, the Ministry of Health’s Medical Sciences expects that thanks to the newly launched Health Intelligence Centre, it can predict disease trends several months away.
Officially launched this month, the Advanced Center is working to better monitor health systems and employs coders, data scientists, mathematicians and public health experts working to respond to health threats across the country.
Also Read: Rwanda Announces Real-Time Health Monitoring Hub
Furthermore, traditional interventions such as indoor residual spraying could soon become targets thanks to data-driven predictions. For example, healthcare workers may begin to accurately focus on specific high-risk locations identified through mathematical models rather than spraying the entire area.
“We are pleased to announce that we are committed to providing support for our healthcare services,” said Muhammad Semakula, head of planning, monitoring, assessment and health funding at the Ministry of Health.
He says that such systems are key to slowing or stopping the spread of disease by identifying risks early, taking into account a variety of factors, such as direct contact such as handshakes, or propagating through airborne particles in busy spaces.
Additionally, scientists at the center can also use mathematical and technical simulation techniques to predict potential health situations that have not yet emerged in the country.
“There’s no need to wait for the disease to enter the country,” he pointed out, explaining that by developing mathematical models that take into account natural patterns and a variety of other factors, scientists can predict possible threats and prepare interventions in advance.
Also Read: Rwanda sets up to pilot ‘virtual hospital’
Scientists at the center can predict up to three months in advance and alert the Ministry of Health teams about the expected number of cases in a particular field, he says. This allows you to begin implementing targeted, proactive or responsive responses before the threat escalates.
“It’s very useful, very accurate, important information for targeted interventions, because you know exactly where the problem lies and you can tackle it from that particular field. This also means a lot in terms of avoiding things like lockdowns that paralyze the economy,” he pointed out.
In addition to consolidating data from various facilities and communities to conduct analysis and inform policies, the centre can monitor some health services in real time.
The center’s work includes tracking the use of public equipment such as ambulances and hospital refrigerators, and tracking the collection of data on the outcome of hospital medical procedures to take relevant measures from a decision-making perspective.
It consists of several departments, including patient care information, daily reports from healthcare workers in health facilities and communities, and data warehouses that store and monitor different types of data, including social media discussions about health services and issues.
One of the key functions of the centre is to conduct a detailed analysis of health outcomes, including identifying the causes behind a particular trend and determining possible solutions.
Such information can be entered into machine learning models that can predict potential future outcomes and alert the medic based on patterns in past cases.
These machine learning models can use artificial intelligence to predict situations. For example, using this technology, the system can inform physicians that certain women visiting the facility are at a higher risk of pregnancy complications or adverse outcomes.
Also Read: Rwanda to fully digitalize your health records by December
The use of technology is part of the country’s ongoing efforts to address the challenges posed by a shortage of physicians and professionals.
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In 2023, the government began 4×4 reforms. This is a strategy aimed at quadruple the number of healthcare workers in the country to meet the WHO recommendations of at least four healthcare professionals per 1,000 population density.
The Ministry of Health is also preparing to launch a pilot project for “Virtual Hospital,” a new facility that allows healthcare professionals to consult and treat patients remotely with patients across the country.
The specialists are based in a central location in Kigali, but can support patients and healthcare providers in hospitals and clinics across the country without the need to be physically present.
Under the 4×4 reform, the health sector is projected to expand its pool of health professionals, including residents, peers, general practitioners, dentists, pharmacists, nurses, midwives and Allied health sciences officials.
By 2028, the ambitious plan aims to increase the health workforce to a total of 32,973 staff.
