The Islamic State of Somalia is, in short, an affiliate of the Islamic State, a transnational jihadist group known as ISIS. The terrorist group based in the semi-autonomous Somali territory of the Pantoland was the target of the Trump administration’s first foreign combat operation in February 2025. Previously, the group was linked to planned terrorist attacks on the Vatican and the Israeli embassy in Stockholm. Stig Jarle Hansen, a researcher and author of several books on African jihadism, examines its origins, rise, and recent battlefield defeats in the mountains of the Pantolands.
1. The rise of the Islamic state
Before the establishment of the Islamic State in Somalia in 2015, Somali jihadist group Al-Shabaab was established in the north. The small group had extensive connections with smuggling networks. Later split into two, Sheikh Abdulqadar Mumin, the future leader of Somali Islamic State, emerged from one of the shrapnel groups.
In Somalia, clans define the relationship between people in society and all actors. The new group’s connections with Ali Sulayban’s sub-clans allowed them to benefit from smuggling and clan links to maritime copyright groups.
Pantoland is the hub of communication and maritime trade between Somalia and Yemen, and is the broader Middle East. Smuggling has been going on in the area for centuries. The rugged terrain is perfect for copyright infringement, illegal smuggling and rebels.
The Pantoland has been more or less autonomous from other parts of Somalia for over 30 years, and the Somali government has had little influence on it today.
2. Jihadists behind the Islamic State of Somalia
Mumin lived in Sweden in the 1990s and early 2000s, and later moved to the UK. Back in Somalia, he joined Al Shabaab and became a prominent figure in the group’s jihadist videos. Videos like this are intended to maintain morality, attract new recruits, and generate sympathy for the group.
In 2015, Mumin flew into exile to lead the Islamic state of Somalia. His deputy commander was another Ali Sulayban Kranman, Mahad Moalim. In 2016, the group’s first video was distributed through Islamic national media.
The group’s milestone followed the 2017 suicide bombing at the Juba Hotel in Bosaso, the commercial capital and seaport of Pantoland. This allowed Somali Islamic State to pressure businesses based in Bossaso, the single most important source of income, to pay IT protection funds. Between 2017 and 2018, the group is believed to have been behind up to 50 assassinations in central Somalia. Killing was a powerful tool to generate protection money.
On July 27, 2018, the Somali group was officially designated as a complete state by an Islamic State, also known as ISIS. The Maktab Al-Karrar Regional Office was based in a small Puntland branch and has given its global responsibility.
The Somali group was responsible for the Islamic states of Central Africa and the state of Mozambique. Money flowed from the Islamic State to the group, and as the money of the terror from other northern Pantoland cities was more frequent from Mogadishu.
In the first half of 2022, the US Treasury alleged that the organization generated US$2.3 million from terror payments, related imports, livestock and agriculture. Regional offices and Muhmins have emerged from the Bourg dectare base in Bali Pantland as major financial players in East Africa, and even outside of it. In fact, an unknown US official claimed that Mumim became the cross-border leader of the Islamic state in 2023.
3. Exaggerated review
The reputation of Islamic states in Somalia is often exaggerated. This group has never captured or held large territories. That number was estimated to be between 600 and 1,600 in 2024. It pales in comparison to Al Shabaab in southern Somalia.
The link to the planned attack on the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm 2024 was probably weak and unbearable in court. And it appears that jihadists linked to the 2018 Vatican attacks have left the Islamic state before the plan.
It is also doubtful that Mumin is the world leader of the Islamic state, as some have argued. That’s two main reasons. First, the leaders of the Islamic State must be drawn from tribes associated with the Prophet (Qureshi). Mumin isn’t like that. Secondly, the Islamic State in Somalia is the smallest of the Islamic State in Africa. It is possible that stronger state leaders were ranked highly.
The Pantoland-based group’s revenue-earning ability is prominent in Islamic state media, but Somali Islamic states are not ranked higher than the Sahara and Mozambique Islamic states.
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4. It’s not down
Pantland authorities launched a relatively successful counterattack on the Islamic state in January 2025. This was combined with air support by the US and the United Arab Emirates.
Pantland won key battles in January and February. This includes the attack that killed 70 fighters from the Islamic State.
By late February, the morale of the Islamic state fighter jets seemed to be broken. The collapse of its main base, Buur Dexhtaal, in March, caused all known bases to fall. Many of the escaped foreign fighters were captured.
However, the Islamic state has not been defeated. The terrain allowed some fighters to hide. Neither Mumin in the 70s nor his commander Abdiramanfahie was reportedly killed. At least hundreds of fighters remain.
If the Islamic State can still force money from the business community in the north, it can recruit from many Oromo Ethiopian refugees in and around Bosaso, as well as locals who need jobs.
Stig Jarl Hansen, Professor of International Relations, Norway University of Life Sciences
