Körber-Stiftung’s Emerging Middle Powers Report presents geopolitical perspectives from Brazil, India, South Africa and Germany.
Decision makers in Brazil, India, South Africa and Germany have fundamentally different views on the challenges faced by foreign policy. 60% of South African respondents and 59% of Brazilians view the global impact of the US negatively. However, in Germany, 75% are actively looking at it. More than half of Indian respondents (52%) said India prefers neutrality amid growing competition between China and the US. Approximately 70% of respondents in Brazil and South Africa and 60% of India say their countries aren’t spending enough to protect the environment. In all four countries, approximately 60% of respondents are pessimistic about major reforms in international organizations.
These are one of the results of Körber-Stiftung’s Emerging Middle Powers Report 2025 survey.
Different foreign policy priorities
For Brazilian experts, climate remains the most important foreign policy priority, with South Africa and India experts prioritizing other issues. India continues to focus on China and its regional security. For South African experts who currently hold the G20 presidency, their relationship with the Global South is becoming increasingly important. Ukraine and the Middle East are just one of the top three priorities for German experts.
International Reform Pessimism
In all four countries, respondents have little hope for change when asked about their outlook for international reform. Whether the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the United Nations or the World Trade Organization are willing to reform, six of the 10 respondents from all four countries believe there will be significant reforms over the next five years to make them more fair and equitable.
Respondents are mostly pessimistic about the relationship between high-income and low-income and middle-income countries, and most respondents hope that these will deteriorate over the next five years.
Pivoting inconsistency?
Eight of the 10 respondents in Brazil and South Africa still prefer to monitor “non-aligned”/neutrality options with the US or China, but it is becoming an alternative for 52% (2023: 38%) of Indian respondents. In Germany, “neutrality/nonalignment” is becoming an increasingly option (2% compared to 19% in 2023).
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investigation
This study was commissioned by Körber-Stiftung and conducted by Verian Germany between October 15th and February 2nd, 2024. The interviews were conducted online. The samples are neither representative nor random. Those invited to participate in the investigation include government representatives, parliamentary members, military and judicial members, diplomats, journalists, researchers, senior NGO staff, activists, and representatives from the private sector in Brazil, India, South Africa and Germany. Participants were invited individually by Körber-Stiftung from Brazil (BRICS Policy Centre), India (Gateway House: Council on India’s Global Relations), South Africa (South Africa International Affairs) or its cooperative partners. Various methods were used to promote responses, including multiple contact attempts and incentives to receive survey results. Each survey link was only available once to ensure that respondents participated twice. The questions were the same in each country. The survey was conducted in Portuguese from Brazil, German from Germany, Indian Hindi and English and South African English.
