James Waterhouse
BBC Ukraine correspondent
BBC
“The best salesman in history.” This was what Donald Trump once called Volodymyr Zelensky for the aid the United States gave to Ukraine.
Whether it’s a fair comparison or not, the role Zelensky in putting his country in the spotlight and persuading him to invest was certainly important for the Ukraine fight.
His transformation from primetime comedian to wartime president has been cast for a long time – it dates back to 2022 when he decided to stay in Kiev when the Russian army was shut down. That decision meant that Ukraine would protect itself to this day.
I have been standing across from him dozens of times since then, but Zelensky is now casting more prestigious, perhaps fighting-harrowing figures, partly molded by the increasing isolation on the international stage.
But Trump’s second season unpredictability may have to transform Zelensky again, especially following the pair’s oval office bust-ups in February.
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Trump represents an increasing fatigue for the Republican Party in the Russian war in Ukraine
Political, it is no longer an oppressor and an oppressed story. Rather, it is muddy by the double challenge of expressing an appetite for peace while protecting the interests of our nation.
But were men used to having so many authority in their homes and being very influential overseas? Or will he decide that the best way to stand up for Ukraine is to give in?
“It’s very cleverly calculated.”
Before Trump’s second chapter began, Ukrainian leaders were effectively pushing for Western support. He sued air prevention, tanks, rockets, fighter jets, and countries such as Germany have terrified of war before succumbing to his demands.
His message was strict and he managed to procure support.
“Zelensky was very clever and calculated early in the war,” says Ed Arnold, defense and security think tank at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Arnold said his decision will be sent to a security conference in Munich two weeks before the invasion.
“In the minds of those who attended personally, we personalized our support for Ukraine.”
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Zelensky was a comedian when he announced that he would run in Ukraine’s 2019 presidential election
Serhiy Leshchenko, advisor to Zelensky’s office, explained: “We need to be visible to the world. If public opinion is on the Ukrainian side, there is a better opportunity to get help from the international community.”
Leshchenko points out Zelensky’s daily video address. This has been created since the invasion began. “It’s rare to be very open.”
Ukraine’s victory at the Battle of Kiev solidified Zelensky as a symbol of the country’s survival and boosted his case for continued military aid from Western allies.
In the second half of 2022, Zelensky was able to show the difference their supplies produced when the strip of Ukrainian territory, including the city of Kherson, was released. He was the first to succeed with his European allies.
“They are personally invested in Zelensky and in Ukraine,” Arnold says. “He has passed four British prime ministers since the start of the war, and they all signed a new declaration with Ukraine through Zelensky once again.
“He was able to survive the changes in national politics within Europe during his tenure.”
But when further success didn’t happen, Zelensky’s message didn’t change – and over time this would be at his disadvantage.
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“Zelensky’s diplomacy was really not adjusted quickly enough,” one expert claims
For example, after the Ukraine’s failed counterattack in the summer of 2023, the merit of supporting Kyiv has been increasingly questioned by influential minority US Republicans, and pleas began to take over in several quarters.
Maria Zolkina, director of regional security and conflict research at the Democracy Initiative Foundation, a Kyiv-based think tank, believes Zelensky is partly responsible.
“He and his close circle relied on the logic that they must always demand when they talk to their partner – Ukraine pushed forward the argument that they simply need something. It worked very well in 2022, but the US and other kinds of messages stopped working in 2023,” she argues.
“But his diplomacy was not really adjusted quickly enough.”
“Zelensky wasn’t a diplomat.”
On September 27, 2024, in the lobby in New York, things really changed for Ukraine. The United States, the political reincarnation of Ukraine’s biggest ally, although only the driving forces were not approaching Russian armor.
That day, just a month before the US presidential election, Zelensky held his final meeting with Trump at Trump Tower.
Before this meeting, tensions between the pairs grew. Zelensky had claimed a few days ago that after claiming that Trump could do it “one day,” he “had never really known how to end the war.”
After the Trump Tower meeting, the two men looked awkward.
Despite publishing a “common view” to end the war, their body language suggested a lack of chemistry.
The pair never met again in the oval office five months later. There, their now-famous encounters become a diplomatic disaster for Kiev.
“Trump should have liked him,” says Vadim Pristyako, who attended when the pair first met after winning the 2019 Zelensky election. “Zelensky saw Trump more or less like himself, as a media guy who moved into politics, an anti-real media guy,” he says.
Mr. Pristyako was the UK ambassador, Ukrainian ambassador before his firing in 2023. Kiev gave no official reason for his termination, but Mr. Pristyako came after criticising Zelensky’s response to his appreciation for British aid. He said there was “a little irony” in the president’s response.
“Zelensky was not a diplomat,” Pristyako added. “He wasn’t the usual political leader who kissed a baby and shook his hands.”
The relationship of “roller coaster”
“My relationship with Trump is like a roller coaster,” says Volodimia Fesenko, director of the Center for Political Studies. “Sometimes there is constructive cooperation, and then suddenly, there is a certain crisis of sorts.”
Then there is the war of their words. Trump accused Zelensky of calling him a “dictator” for starting the war, and Ukrainian leaders accused his US counterparts of “living in Russia’s disinformation space.”
Fesenko believes Zelensky is constantly changing his tactics to find a working relationship with Washington, but Ms Zolkina thinks the problem will be deeper.
“There’s a triangle between the US administration, the Kremlin and Kiev,” she argues. “Ukraine is considered to be a weak part of this triangle. For Trump, Zelensky is not in the same league, so that’s the problem.”
Ukrainian President handouts/Getty Images
Trump blamed Zelensky for starting the war and called him a dictator
This was the first time Zelenkey seemed to have exhausted his political rope as he was accused of “not showing enough gratitude” and “playing in the Third World” when it became the now-notorious oval office meeting with Trump and his vice president, JD Vance.
His defensive body language, like the folding of his arms, also looked new.
Zelensky always seemed comfortable hosting and visiting other leaders. He was relieved on stage and often injected with timely humor, but this was different.
The mineral agreement, which Zelensky originally proposed to trade some of the wealth of Ukrainian mineral resources with continued military aid, was never signed and has since evolved into a less favorable proposal from Kiev.
The US has also suspended military aid and information sharing to ensure Ukraine dances to the song.
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Ukraine’s victory at the Battle of Kiev solidified Zelensky as a symbol of the country’s survival
But the official view from some is that the oval office meeting was not a disaster.
“No one took it as the end of something,” insists Ihol Brusilo, deputy director of the presidential office who traveled to the White House with Zelensky. “We discussed ways to move forward. It wasn’t a disaster.”
When US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz told them the meeting was over, he recalls, “We decided to shruggle and return to the hotel.”
“My estimation is, on a personal level, they are [Trump and Zelensky] “They understand each other better, are open and honest,” he adds.
Whatever the truth about their relationship behind closed doors, there have been signs of willingness to turn from Zelensky since that meeting – it is said that European allies have persuaded him to take a more compliant tone due to the inevitable truth that they and Ukraine need the US to fight against the still aggressive Russia.
But others argue that more bends are still needed.
“It’s very difficult to bend Zelensky.”
“War changed everyone, and in some way changed us. But I don’t think Zelensky has changed fundamentally – in some instances for good and evil.”
“It’s very clear that certain actors have decided it’s difficult to negotiate with Zelensky. Why? Because he has the red line he’s stuck with.”
Mr. Burshiro agrees. “It’s very difficult to bend Zelensky,” he says. “It’s like watching spring, and the more you press, the bigger the pushback.”
Still, every time Ukraine is attacked politically or diplomatically, political unity increases. The oval office conflict was no exception as Zelensky’s popularity rating skyrocketed to around 70%.
“Zelensky is very powerful, and his authority is made up of himself and a circle of certain people,” claims Ms Zolkina.
Olisia Lutzevich, head of the Chatham House Ukrainian Forum, says it is interesting that Ukrainians gathered around Zelensky after the oval office.
“People gather around him, what he represents, and how he behaves.”
Prystaiko insists whether the Americans wanted him to “shoot in the leg because they might be easily re-elected.”
Some political experts, like Ms. Zolkina, don’t think this is certain. “I don’t think he understands that this boost is a direct response to what Trump is doing and not his personal position,” she says.
“He has a rather strong political ambition for the second term and is pretty politically egocentric, as all his leaders are on his level.”
Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images
Zelensky’s daily video address has not stopped since the invasion began
Professor Onuch does not believe that the pursuit of political power alone will motivate Zelensky. “[He is] Much more careful, considerate, and tactical political operators than people give him credit.
Still, it can be difficult to imagine Zelensky’s second term. Even postwar challenges are quite a bit.
For now, Arnold suggests that exhausted Zelensky doubts he won’t get up again, and might at least want a way out of the forefront politics.
As for the recent years, Zelensky cannot afford another oval office. So, given Trump is an avid player, will the Ukrainian leader join him for the golf round?
“He’s a quick learner,” says his Brushiro. “I’m sure he’ll work on this task when he needs to play golf.”
Top Picture Credit: Getty Images
Additional Reports by Hanna Chornous and Vicky Riddell
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